Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

[FrazeeDK]

now being tested: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... ing-virus/

[tamada]

Some good news for a change, let's hope other countries take note.

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK measures 'making a difference'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52096049

Two days ago we had Michael Gove still blaming China as well as saying the UK lockdown was expected to continue for a “significant period”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... us-testing

And only the day before we had the UK's Senior Health Advisor's stand-in saying that the lock-down could be as long as 6 months or even longer.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

And wasn't there a noisome claim only about 12 days ago from Australian doctors that they had already found the cure?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/australia ... d-19-cure/

I wish they would just hold their tongues for a wee bit longer instead of this pressing need to throw out lifelines that aren't attached to anything tangible, meaningful or proven.

[saint]

Amged El-Hawrani, a 55-year-old ear, nose and throat consultant, died on Saturday at Leicester Royal Infirmary, while Adil El Tayar, 63, an organ transplant specialist, died on Wednesday at West Middlesex University Hospital in London, it emerged. Both had contracted Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... f-pandemic

If 55 and 63 are now considered "elderly", the rest of us don't stand much chance.

Yes, 55 and 63 is definitely in the "not a spring chicken any more" age category. Reality sucks sometimes.

Maybe not to you young pups . Maybe not a spring chicken , no , more like an Autumn chicken .
Certainly not a Winter chicken , and its not started snowing yet .

[pipoz4444]

I am just waiting for one of the Countries to formally declare that they have Peaked with their Covid 19 case numbers and are now on the downward side of the Curve. A country with reliable data and transparency, not China.

Been looking for a Web site that shows the Case Number Curve vs the Recovery Curve for each Country, to see what the actual lag is between each Peak

I found this for Singapore, its not a graph

https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19

pipoz44444

[anefarious1]

I am just waiting for one of the Countries to formally declare that they have Peaked with their Covid 19 case numbers and are now on the downward side of the Curve. A country with reliable data and transparency, not China.

Been looking for a Web site that shows the Case Number Curve vs the Recovery Curve for each Country, to see what the actual lag is between each Peak

pipoz44444

Well.... If this isn't already the case with South Korea then the world is truly heading towards to a Mad Max scenario.

[747man]

Thailand on Tuesday reported 127 new coronavirus cases and one more fatality.



The new cases brings the total number of confirmed cases to 1,651 and 10 deaths.



This is a developing story. More details to follow.

[sometimewoodworker]

I am just waiting for one of the Countries to formally declare that they have Peaked with their Covid 19 case numbers and are now on the downward side of the Curve. A country with reliable data and transparency, not China.

Been looking for a Web site that shows the Case Number Curve vs the Recovery Curve for each Country, to see what the actual lag is between each Peak

I found this for Singapore, its not a graph

https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19

pipoz44444

Do you mean like this?

[pipoz4444]

I am just waiting for one of the Countries to formally declare that they have Peaked with their Covid 19 case numbers and are now on the downward side of the Curve. A country with reliable data and transparency, not China.

Been looking for a Web site that shows the Case Number Curve vs the Recovery Curve for each Country, to see what the actual lag is between each Peak

I found this for Singapore, its not a graph

https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19

pipoz44444

Do you mean like this?
4530D170-EC75-41E2-8DE3-62661150F4E4.jpeg

Yes close, this one appears to give the numbers, day by day. It says for "Each Day"

Is this Data for for the previous SARS of the Covid 19

If I had access to the Data build up for Covid 19 for countries, such as South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, I would do a Cumulative Graph for each

pipoz4444

[vincemunday]

The banks are being very careful, they are practicing social distancing by preventing customers from entering the bank so they all bunch together outside the doors 1 foot apart so they don't lose their spot in the queue TIT. Including farang by the way.

[vincemunday]

The banks are being very careful, they are practicing social distancing by preventing customers from entering the bank so they all bunch together outside the doors 1 foot apart so they don't lose their spot in the queue TIT. Including farang by the way.

[mathusalah80]

Amged El-Hawrani, a 55-year-old ear, nose and throat consultant, died on Saturday at Leicester Royal Infirmary, while Adil El Tayar, 63, an organ transplant specialist, died on Wednesday at West Middlesex University Hospital in London, it emerged. Both had contracted Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... f-pandemic

If 55 and 63 are now considered "elderly", the rest of us don't stand much chance.

Yes, 55 and 63 is definitely in the "not a spring chicken any more" age category. Reality sucks sometimes.

Maybe not to you young pups . Maybe not a spring chicken , no , more like an Autumn chicken .
Certainly not a Winter chicken , and its not started snowing yet .

So, at age 88, I suppose I could best be described as an already demised, ancient old Hen. THAT's what I would call facing reality Tamada!!

[sometimewoodworker]

I am just waiting for one of the Countries to formally declare that they have Peaked with their Covid 19 case numbers and are now on the downward side of the Curve. A country with reliable data and transparency, not China.

Been looking for a Web site that shows the Case Number Curve vs the Recovery Curve for each Country, to see what the actual lag is between each Peak

I found this for Singapore, its not a graph

https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19

pipoz44444

Do you mean like this?
4530D170-EC75-41E2-8DE3-62661150F4E4.jpeg

Yes close, this one appears to give the numbers, day by day. It says for "Each Day"

Is this Data for for the previous SARS of the Covid 19

If I had access to the Data build up for Covid 19 for countries, such as South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, I would do a Cumulative Graph for each

pipoz4444

Is this Data for for the previous SARS of the Covid 19

I don’t understand the question.
The graphs are from the Worldometer website, I think that the raw data is available from them as well
https://www.worldometers.info/about/
There is a site run by Oxford University, I think, though safari crashed and I lost the 200 tabs but I’ll try to find it again

It may be this one

OXFORD COVID-19 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TRACKER

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/rese ... se-tracker

[sometimewoodworker]

Actually the site I mentioned above is not the most useful

Our World in Data and the SDG-Tracker are collaborative efforts between researchers at the University of Oxford, who are the scientific editors of the website content; and the non-profit organization Global Change Data Lab, who publishes and maintains the website and the data tools that make our work possible. At the University of Oxford we are based at the Oxford Martin Programme on Global Development.

Was the one I remembered

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Though they note

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE SITUATION WITH COVID-19 TESTING IS DEVELOPING, THE DATA CONTAINED IN THIS POST IS NOW OUT OF DATE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON TO UNDERSTAND THE CURRENT SITUATION. WE ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON AN UPDATED SET OF FIGURES.

[pipoz4444]

I think it is on this Site, below and should look something like this, but for one country at a time.

https://www.statista.com/search/?q=covi ... &archive=1

[pipoz4444]

This is the one for China. Just wish I could believe it was accurate

Just looking at when the Case Numbers start to slow around 14 February 2020 - 70,000 (in Blue) to where the Recovery Numbers is about the same 70,000 (in Yellow) 16 March 2020, i.e. 31 Days.

So if other countries follow suit, then about 31 days after the "Trend of Daily New Cases Reducing (for say 3 consecutive days), one would then expect that the total number of People who had Recovered (being equal) are now arguably immune to a second infection, would be a good time to consider easing ease up on the daily restrictions (such a lock downs etc, city by city) in that Country.

First have to get to the Point in Blue (i.e. 70,000 in China's case), where new case numbers decline, before you can predict/see some light at the end of the tunnel and possibly return to normality of lifestyle in that one Country.

Predicting it for the World (and say normality for Travel) is much more difficult, given each Country is at a different stage in it cycle/trend. Some are finishing the cycle and others just starting out.

pipoz4444

[sometimewoodworker]

This is the one for China. Just wish I could believe it was accurate

Just looking at when the Case Numbers start to slow around 14 February 2020 - 70,000 (in Blue) to where the Recovery Numbers is about the same 70,000 (in Yellow) 16 March 2020, i.e. 31 Days.

So if other countries follow suit, then about 31 days after the "Trend of Daily New Cases Reducing (for say 3 consecutive days), one would then expect that the total number of People who had Recovered (being equal) are now arguably immune to a second infection, would be a good time to consider easing ease up on the daily restrictions (such a lock downs etc, city by city) in that Country.

First have to get to the Point in Blue (i.e. 70,000 in China's case), where new case numbers decline, before you can predict/see some light at the end of the tunnel and possibly return to normality of lifestyle in that one Country.

Predicting it for the World (and say normality for Travel) is much more difficult, given each Country is at a different stage in it cycle/trend. Some are finishing the cycle and others just starting out.


China - Cumulative Cases Recorded vs Recoveries.jpg

pipoz4444

I think that even if the data coming out of China is accurate you can not draw any conclusions about any other countries. Or the natural progress of the infection.

In my opinion few countries will be able to control the spread until everyone who has been infected has progressed through the disease and is completely clear. If you can do that you are OK but if there are still people who can spread the infection will be deadly.

This is due to the extreme controls available in China but in no other country together with the technology deployed there that is not elsewhere. The facial recognition available there makes contact tracing much less of a problem.

South Korea would be a slightly better model, the problem there is that they actually have the capacity to test anyone who might have any symptoms or none at all.

Once you can stop the spread the recovery rate can catch up until then I think that the information you have is of only academic interest.

Again in my opinion, until there is a vaccine extraordinary precautions will have to stay, though not the current level of travel, and isolation restrictions.

[Whistler]

sure

Deadly second wave

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States,[90] the virus had mutated to a much deadlier form. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the whole pandemic.[91]

This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[92] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).[93]

The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave.[94] For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – adults who were young and fit.[95]

[choi choi]

Can you see the way China is planning?
Ozzie's sussed em out!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtRr4pIineQ

[jackspratt]

The Aussie you refer to (Alan Jones) is a well known raving right wing lunatic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Jone ... oadcaster)

Overwhelmingly, his main demographic in Oz is the conservative, over 60, dimwits and blue rinse set.

He is probably a mildly intelligent version of Sean Hannity, and quite frankly, a blight on humanity.

[papafarang]

Racism is human trait ,not the best trait we have. Today someone discribed it as ' the ****** virus' , my reply was I guess Ebola must be the ' black guy virus ' then ? . And we are supposed to be educated.