Congratulations

[caducus]

I assume that one is allowed to congratulate the Move Forward Party for their comprehensive win in yesterday's election.

One hopes that the times are changing.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Democracy has arrived. Over 75% of the electorate voted. It was a close race. One hopes the orange and reds work together.

[jackspratt]

I would be surprised if there is not a lot of scheming going on behind the scenes by those have already have great power, together with those who will be loath to lose power.

But Prayut - the Coup leader, and beneficiary of two shonky election results - has certainly won something .... Hypocrite of the Year I think it is called.

"I respect democracy and the election. Thank you."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-15/ ... /102345426

[tamada]

I see the only old guard having a gurn and raising the specter of civil unrest was none other than the soon-to-be-ex DPM Wissanu Krean-ngam. Although his concerns were based on the obvious risk of a minority government trying to run the show, he did suggest that even a party winning by a majority could find themselves reduced to a minority due to 'some uncertainties' that may prevail in the ensuing couple of months of horse trading.

In other reports Prayuth and his party have acknowledged the loss and he's opting to remain in politics and 'respect established norms' with regard to whoever gets to form a new government.

At the same time, neither DPM Prawit or his 4th place (losing army) party have said anything. I'd be more leery of these buggers trying to queer the pitch with challenges and the like.

But it is important to remember that despite two leading opposition parties garnering about 47% of the vote and being in a position, at least on paper, to form a safe majority coalition government, the 250 senators in the (still) standing upper house could manipulate a minority government that would leave the door open for instability and the same old same old knee jerk responses. Apparently the appointed Senate still has about a year to run on their use-by date.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

I have a feeling even the Senate will not interfere this time. The population has spoken. It maybe that Thaksin will not be able to return, and the military will not face a reduction in their numbers or powers, yet but the writing is on the wall. The people have spoken very clearly.

[stattointhailand]

Not the first time the people have spoken .......... unfortunately those in the army appear to be deaf

[Laan Yaa Mo]

It's different because the middle class in Bangkok demonstrated they want to move forward, and it is not just the north and northeast that want change in the government.

[Drunk Monkey]

Three quarters of the nationwide vote went to the Orange n Red parties with every seat/district in Bangkok being won by the Orange guy party which in itself is astonishing .. alas already hearing warblings from the senate re not endorsing the election results citing "for the good of the country"
Apparently takes up to 60 days for the new government to be in place so plenty of miles left in this yet.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Previously, the military was able to successfully rally support (the yellow shirts) in Bangkok to oust Thaksin and then Yingluck. I doubt they would be so successful in recruiting yellow shirt support in Bangkok this time as it voted firmly to move forward.

[Stantheman]

Previously, the military was able to successfully rally support (the yellow shirts) in Bangkok to oust Thaksin and then Yingluck. I doubt they would be so successful in recruiting yellow shirt support in Bangkok this time as it voted firmly to move forward.

If I remember correctly, didn't the majority of the yellow shirts come from areas outside of Bangkok?

[stattointhailand]

Ah those were the days, when Khun Abhisit (Mark the Geordie) led the country and managed to get Championship football shown on Thai TV .......... funnily enough it was the year Newcastle were relegated to the Championship

[tamada]

Breakfast viewing.

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/th ... ablishment

[tamada]

Previously, the military was able to successfully rally support (the yellow shirts) in Bangkok to oust Thaksin and then Yingluck. I doubt they would be so successful in recruiting yellow shirt support in Bangkok this time as it voted firmly to move forward.

If I remember correctly, didn't the majority of the yellow shirts come from areas outside of Bangkok?

Its membership consisted mainly of ultra-royalist middle-class and working-class Bangkok residents and anti-Thaksin Southerners, supported by some factions of the Thai Army, some leaders of Democrat Party, and the members of the state-enterprise labor unions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27 ... _Democracy

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Previously, the military was able to successfully rally support (the yellow shirts) in Bangkok to oust Thaksin and then Yingluck. I doubt they would be so successful in recruiting yellow shirt support in Bangkok this time as it voted firmly to move forward.

If I remember correctly, didn't the majority of the yellow shirts come from areas outside of Bangkok?

I think you are right in that, as tamada pointed out, PAD (the yellow shirts) did have a lot of support in southern Thailand. I would guess that a large number of the elected party members who support the military were voted in in the south.

[tamada]

Some scary but realistic scenarios presented within the following. Notably, if Move Forward's efforts are thwarted, will Pheu Thai go for the nuclear option and court the senators in Prawit's pocket? If the impasse rolls into rainy season, election fatigue will begin and the people may just roll with the option to just get on with it. Maybe next year, after the need for Senatorial approval expires? In the meantime, Prayuth's caretaker government will still hold the reins.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/1 ... take-power

[Whistler]

Wry grin when the first post on this thread appeared.

A bit like congratulating a wild-card entry on taking the first game in a 5 match set against the world's number 1.

Naïve in the extreme.

[deankham]

I get a sixth sense that this time it is different. I could be way of the mark, but with the new Orange Shirts having the support of the youth and with the sad demise of the very well respected #9 , I feel now is the time for this change to happen.

I would also predict mass protests and riots in the street if the Military / Senate try to overturn the election and stay in Power.

Just my uninformed ramblings but is my opinion.

[Whistler]

I get a sixth sense that this time it is different. I could be way of the mark, but with the new Orange Shirts having the support of the youth and with the sad demise of the very well respected #9 , I feel now is the time for this change to happen.

I would also predict mass protests and riots in the street if the Military / Senate try to overturn the election and stay in Power.

Just my uninformed ramblings but is my opinion.

I think you may be right, I hope so.

At a minimum the Army will test the waters, see what they can get away with, they have not given in yet, they have a lot to use and still have powerful connections, one person could resolve this, does that person (whoever that is) has the power to see a transition.

[tamada]

Without going too far into discussions of things proscribed, #9 hardly ever left the country whereas #10 hardly ever stayed here. Maybe that's something that shades the opinion of younger generations, maybe not.

[tamada]

In other news, some "legal advice" from one of the caretaker DPM's raises the spectre of an annulled election.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/po ... d-election