RECESSION?

[Doodoo]

"Kbank analyst paints grim picture as Thailand teeters on recession"

Pull your belts in one more notch boys

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/113608 ... paign=news

[Kenr6583]

"Kbank analyst paints grim picture as Thailand teeters on recession"

Pull your belts in one more notch boys

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/113608 ... paign=news

All these countries better get their s*** together and stop trying to see who has the biggest d___ or we are going to have a global meltdown in the near future and then everybody will lose.

[Kenr6583]

United States GDP annualized 2.1% for the third quarter of 2019.

[tamada]

Germany narrowly escapes recession in third quarter

"The German economy avoided falling into recession in the third quarter by registering a meagre 0.1% growth, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday (14 November).

A rise in private and state consumer spending, and the pickup in the external demand stopped the largest European economy from slipping into a technical recession, following a 0.2% fall in the second quarter, greater than previously reported.

The trade war and geopolitical tensions were expected to weigh on the German economy, and analysts forecast a 0.1% fall in the third quarter.

“Recession or not, the German economy has fallen into a de facto stagnation, with quarterly GDP growth averaging a meagre 0.1% quarter on quarter since the third quarter of last year,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

“After 10 years of almost unstoppable economic growth, a shorter period of stagnation is not necessarily a big crisis. This also explains the resistance or at least hesitation of the German government to engage in significant short-term fiscal stimulus,” he added."

How do you say 'ostrich' in German?

[Doodoo]

Another 1,000 truck drivers lost their jobs in November, and it's a chilling sign for the economy

https://www.yahoo.com/news/another-1-00 ... 53528.html

[Doodoo]

Canada loses 71,200 jobs in biggest employment drop in decade

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... li=AAggNb9

[tamada]

Another 1,000 truck drivers lost their jobs in November, and it's a chilling sign for the economy

https://www.yahoo.com/news/another-1-00 ... 53528.html

I guess being way over there with only two land borders, the option for the smaller, independent truckers to boost their income via people smuggling doesn't really exist.

In the meantime...

Jobs growth soars in November as payrolls surge by 266,000

"Nonfarm payrolls surged by 266,000 in November, better than the 187,000 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, back to the 2019 low and matching the lowest jobless rate since 1969.

The end of the GM strike had a big effect, boosting employment in motor vehicles and parts by 41,300, part of an overall 54,000 gain in manufacturing.

Average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% from a year ago, slightly above the 3% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonf ... -2019.html

So if all this US manufacturing is up, how come nobody's apparently hiring US truckers to move these inventories from factory to warehouse to retailers, wholesalers and exporters?

[Kenr6583]

Another 1,000 truck drivers lost their jobs in November, and it's a chilling sign for the economy

https://www.yahoo.com/news/another-1-00 ... 53528.html

I guess being way over there with only two land borders, the option for the smaller, independent truckers to boost their income via people smuggling doesn't really exist.

In the meantime...

Jobs growth soars in November as payrolls surge by 266,000

"Nonfarm payrolls surged by 266,000 in November, better than the 187,000 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, back to the 2019 low and matching the lowest jobless rate since 1969.

The end of the GM strike had a big effect, boosting employment in motor vehicles and parts by 41,300, part of an overall 54,000 gain in manufacturing.

Average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% from a year ago, slightly above the 3% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonf ... -2019.html

So if all this US manufacturing is up, how come nobody's apparently hiring US truckers to move these inventories from factory to warehouse to retailers, wholesalers and exporters?

In reality, it's not really job growth. There is, on average, 10,000 people who retire everyday in the States. The majority of thesr are new workers replacing retired workers. And it also does not take into account as to how many individuals work two jobs.

[Doodoo]

"Thai November domestic car sales slump 16.2% year-on-year "

Film at eleven

[Kenr6583]

Trucking company Celadon, based out of Indianapoli, Indiana, filed for bankruptcy, laying off 4,000 people. Apparently 3000 truckers were left stranded out of state when this occurred.

[tamada]

Trucking company Celadon, based out of Indianapoli, Indiana, filed for bankruptcy, laying off 4,000 people. Apparently 3000 truckers were left stranded out of state when this occurred.

More doom and gloom and still no explanation how the claimed booming domestic manufacturing environment is shipping their goods to the stores nationwide despite the ongoing collapse of the trucking industry. Is it trucking industry contraction due to renewed strategies and business economies? Are manufacturers shipping larger loads less frequently by (for example) rail? Are more manufacturers moving inventory direct to customers via online commerce?

[Kenr6583]

The only jobs I see booming in the area I live in are hotels and restaurants. In this "booming" economy, why did the US run a 26%, $984 billion deficit last fiscal year, and why is the Fed doing Repos to keep the banks afloat? Any country, and I mean any country, can have a "booming" economy as long as they have a printing machine that runs 24/7. The United States is chugging along on borrowed money, and who's going to have to pay this money back and when?

[pipoz4444]

Extract from a Previous Post: "Regarding the global recession or slow down or whatever, it is coming. History has shown it comes around every 9 or so years, in some Form or Shape, and we are past that due date. So yes, maybe another 2 - 4 years and it will hit, but which Countries it will affect and how it affects them, is uncertain"

I would chang my view on the timeline. I would now put my money on all the signs being in place during the first half of 2020 and the actual impact or effect, starting to become evident in Economies (particularly in that of Thailand's), before the end of 2020.

As an export oriented country, combined with an overprice currency exchange rate at this time, both the Thai Economy and also the Thai Baht Exchange Rate, should see a negative impact in the later part of 2020.

My only hope is that the slowing down of the world economy as a whole (it's still debatable whether it will become a full recession or just a slowing down), will eventually pull the Thai Baht Exchange Rate to the USD, back in to line, to where it should be, namley at around TB 32 (or above) to the USD.

pipoz4444

[Drunk Monkey]

Heres a new word ..apparently its real.n in the dictionary

STAGFLATION ..

I saw an ariclecrelati g to.Thailand and the USAn this word was used .. firget the exact meani g ..im.looking for the link

Dm.

[Drunk Monkey]

Here we go ..knew id seen it somewhere ..

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... r-thailand

[Kenr6583]

US Steel eliminating 1,545 jobs in Michigan.

[Drunk Monkey]

Related to.the current economic situation in Thailand .

Dm.just finishedca round of booze deliveries covering numerous provinces of Issaan ...at each drop.of as i normally do.inask hows bizz been ..some reply great .. ok or slow or very quiet ... but all...every single place had the same comment ..

This last few weeks late October thru to christmas we are not seeing any expats at all... the ones that come to.visit the wives families on holiday ...n obviously ho out gor a meal n food whilst visiting in rural.isaan ...i have seen this also in Udon as there does seem to be a lack.of that particilar customer .. sisaket , ubon , korst and buriram.all saying exactly the same ..so maybe these guys are staying home in their native countries for Chrismas n new year or going elsewhere ..n not visting Thai rekatives this year .

Just a shared bservation ..

Dm..

[BillaRickaDickay]

Not sure if its relevant or i just got lucky, arrived swampy two weeks ago for one of my bi-anual 90 day trips, the first time for many years that i only had a 10min wait at immigration, looked around me and not a ****** in sight.
In the past i have sometimes had to join the queue at the bottom of the slope.

[Drunk Monkey]

https://thepattayanews.com/2019/12/21/t ... forcement/

Lots of tourists according to pattaya officers ..trouble is they are the ones who are in organised groups n dobt spend a baht in any if the resorts nighlife venues ... that was always down to the Europeans American n Aussies of which very few are in Patta nowadays ..

Dms cousin currently in fun city n hes nwver seen it so.quiet .. obviously it been to Koh Larn has he ??

Dm

[Doodoo]

Thai automotive parts manufacturer
Abrupt company closure means about 1,000 workers lose their jobs

Hopefully something will change