Future energy sources?

[tamada]

The following from Christian Vinstrup, an Offshore Wind Professional with 15+ years of Project Leadership & Strategy in the offshore renewables game.

Bigger Turbines, Bigger Failures: When Innovation Outpaces Reality

"I’ve been in the offshore wind industry for many years, attended a lot of repair campaigns, and seen my share of breakdowns. Failures and breakdowns are part of the game—but what we’re seeing now? This isn’t normal. These turbines aren’t just breaking because of bad luck. They’re breaking because the components are growing faster than reality and technology can keep up.

2024 has been a reality check. Blade failures at Dogger Bank A, Vineyard Wind, and Mingyang’s overhyped 20 MW prototype are proof that the industry’s fixation on bigger turbines is coming apart—literally and the message is clear:

•The race to build bigger turbines is outpacing engineering advancements.

•Blades and components are being pushed beyond their limits, leading to failures that should never have happened.

•This isn’t about innovation any more—it’s about rushing to claim records and trying to install fewer turbines in projects, no matter the risks.

Offshore wind is critical for the green transition, but the industry can’t afford these constant breakdowns. We need to stop pretending bigger is always better and focus on building smarter, more reliable systems. Innovation should push limits, not break them. It’s time to rethink the “bigger is better” strategy before it costs us more than we can afford—or, in the worst case, lives.

What’s your take—are we moving too fast for the technology to catch up?"

[tamada]

The bad weather, mainly wet but not too windy, reduced sunshine plus seasonal low daylight hours has seen most of western Europe's renewables contribution to their energy supplies flat line for most of the past month.

Accordingly, the import of Norwegian electricity via interconnectors has surged to meet demand. This has caused the Norwegian consumer's electric bill to ratchet up significantly giving rise to political discontent and calls for a "Norway first" attitude to their plentiful energy supplies.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/ ... ing-prices

Merry Christmas

Looks like things got a bit worse for renewables in the UK over the past week.

[Barney]

All good here. Haven’t even completed construction and they are falling apart.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/14ouCa ... tid=wwXIfr

[jackspratt]

Crikey!

Next thing you know, the project will be 7 years late, with a cost overrun of US$30 billion.

Oh! wait .....

https://reneweconomy.com.au/why-the-new ... -the-last/

[AlexO]

Crikey!

Next thing you know, the project will be 7 years late, with a cost overrun of US$30 billion.

Oh! wait .....

https://reneweconomy.com.au/why-the-new ... -the-last/

There was people starting to think you had finally realised the absolute BS about renewables and the massive overall costs to end users.
But then you go and start quoting fictional figures from an obviously non-biased source of information.
Perhaps when you are not supporting a political party obsession and start to have a worldwide view of clean fuel sources then we may see a slightly more broad view of how the worlds clean energy will be produced.

[Barney]

Lets hope it and all wind farms under construction or proposed in Australia are 7 years late, nuclear options will be in place by then when the change of govt happens.

The USA will most likely not in the near future go big for Nuclear power by biding their time for the technology of smaller modular type of reactor to be confirmed.
And, they are building a nuclear plant now, all be it a large test plant facility using Natrium engineering and design.

Don't forget to do your homework and costing correctly, a nuclear plant with a high initial cost last maybe 80 odd years till replacement, where a wind or solar plant also with a high cost requires replacement every 20 odd years. 4 time the original cost. Simple math's really.

[Barney]

AND further reading info for the nuclear sceptics.

Actually, the USA is moving forward with more nuclear generators.
The Tennessee Valley Authority has now signed the contract for the engineering and construction of a GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactor (SMR). Other countries will naturally follow.

https://www.ans.org/news/topic-gen4/step-1722954669/

[jackspratt]

Actually, the USA is moving forward with more nuclear generators.

Fantastic news for the USA, and other countries who are looking at the Hitachi reactor.

Can it be transposed to Australia, to take up the energy shortfall which will become starker by the end of this decade, due to the end-of-life coal power stations being shut down by their owners?

And at a cost that will not cripple consumers?

All the evidence so far would indicate not.

[AlexO]

What are you advocating?
Keeping the polluting coal stations, build more polluting gas stations or imposing the highly crippling costs and unreliability of wind and solar systems?

[tamada]

Reportedly, India is ranked third in the world for coal and coal by-products imports. They're not slowing down.

Presently, they are the most active seismic exploration market in the world, searching for oil and gas. The industry's 'open secret' is the funding for this is from at least two of the US oil and gas super majors.

Looks like India won't be big on renewables for a wee while yet, and neither is ExxonMobil and Chevron.

[pipoz4444]

Even though the chart below are mainly 2023, the bottom line is that,

The demand for Primary Energy is increasing and will continue to increase, due to the ever growing number / the worlds population of middle class with money to spend. They are a primary reason for the consumption of world products and Asia is the fastest growing Consumer region in the world.

Combine the worlds overall population increase with a growing middle class (by numbers) and you end up with a higher rate of world consumption of goods. Which means growth in industry and demand for more and cheaper primary energy.

The main industrial / manufacturing driven countries in Asia, are China and India (combined population of over 2.8 Billion -35.5% of the worlds population) and both have high rates of growth in their respective middle classes and neither country is committed to renewables as a primary energy source in the foreseeable future.

So one can pray all he wants for renewables to take over, but with these two countries in the driving seat, with both still heavily reliant on fossil fuels to supply their domestic energy demands, both having very active programs of construction of coal fired power stations, combining this with the ever increasing consumption by that growing middle class driving the need for primary energy in each, very little will change in the foreseeable future.


Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source

Worlds Middle Class 2020 to 2030

Middle Class Consumption

India's Primary Energy Supply Source 2023

Regards

pipoz4444

[Bandung_Dero]

< Snip>
Looks like India won't be big on renewables for a wee while yet, and neither is ExxonMobil and Chevron.

And Woodside, Santos etc, in Australia. Gotta give em their due, at least BHP slipped out the back door by selling all their Australian Oil/Gas business to Woodside. Was a great deal for me being a share holder of both - AND I have NO shame!

[Doodoo]

"Was a great deal for me being a share holder of both - AND I have NO shame!"

"No links, WTF are u on about, better still get ya meds sorted!!"

[Bandung_Dero]

U can't do simple Google search? Take a look what happened on 1st Jun 2022.
At least I have NEVER had a Centre Link payment! Wot about you?

[Barney]

< Snip>
Looks like India won't be big on renewables for a wee while yet, and neither is ExxonMobil and Chevron.

And Woodside, Santos etc, in Australia. Gotta give em their due, at least BHP slipped out the back door by selling all their Australian Oil/Gas business to Woodside. Was a great deal for me being a share holder of both - AND I have NO shame!

Ah woodside, you made a good choice there always have been a consistently strong share to have. I had quite a number of shares but needed to liquidate a while back.
With Woodsides constant expansion in Australia and overseas within the oil and gas industry, it does not sound like that industry will reduce any time soon, they will invest in Carbon Capture and some renewables as is the new fad.

Lots of memories for me from Woodside projects. Although BD you probably owe me a beer for assisting to build a successful number of Woodsides Gas facilities over a number of years starting work 1986 on the original North West Shelf LNG construction. Then back for the north west shelf LPG and Jetty expansion, then Pluto 1 LNG, then Wheatstone LNG in the China mod yards. Good times.
Will be interesting to see their share performance now they have concluded their asset swap with Chevron in WA. Woodside to relinquish Wheatstone LNG to Chevron and Chevron to relinquish the North west shelf to Woodside.
Their Pluto 2 LNG now have all the next train modules delivered recently with startup 2026 on target, my mates have left the yard in Indonesia and moved onsite.
Woodside have also very recently concluded the purchase of the Driftwood LNG from Tellurian, with the now named Louisiana LNG, 3 train plant to continue soon at a cost to build well into the 20 billion USD. I'm to old now to move to that one. Retirement beckons after this current Thai project. Wish I had been able to keep those Woodside shares. Good luck.

[rick]

India's reliance on coal comes at a price, Indian coal tends to be of low quality, generating 30% or more fly ash. So apart from air pollution, dumping of Fly ash is causing significant damage to the environment. Dumping is occurring in agricultural areas, forests and next to rivers.

https://thelifeindia.org.in/status-of-fly/

[Bandung_Dero]

Lots of memories for me from Woodside projects. Although BD you probably owe me a beer for assisting to build a successful number of Woodsides Gas facilities over a number of years starting work 1986 on the original North West Shelf LNG construction.



Retirement beckons after this current Thai project. Wish I had been able to keep those Woodside shares. Good luck.

I too was there, when Nth Rankins jacket started sinking and the "Epo Sand" project got under way. My company supplied the analysers monitoring the toxisity levels of the glue they were pumping down. Was accommodated on the dreaded Hugh W Gordon. Did many more trips to Rankin, Goodwin and Cossak, flare monitoring and other process instrumentation etc. And yes I'm still a co owner (now silent) of the business. There weren't too many on and off shore facilities in Aus and Asia (including Chevron Thailand) I have not spent time on up to Aug 2003 when I retired to the rice paddies of Ban Dung.

[jackspratt]

I too was there, when Nth Rankins jacket started sinking and the "Epo Sand" project got under way.

Pile Remediation Project (or something similar) if I remember correctly.

I was there too.

[Bandung_Dero]

Two different problems, the one you refer to was associated with Goodwin. I wasn't there for that.

https://www.afr.com/politics/engineerin ... 1223-k58ge

[jackspratt]

Definitely Rankin A, Dero - page 28

https://portal.engineersaustralia.org.a ... 202017.pdf

There was a project to stabilise the flare tower done at around the same time.