The Sensible Discussion Thread – Thai Turmoil –

[Bandung_Dero]

Let's have one thread that, at least, can focus on the current situation rather than a hotch potch of misinformation that no one can sort through.

Being a very concerned Ex-Pat I, like many of us, have spent many hours a day monitoring most Thai web sites inc this and ThaiVisa etc. and what I read from most so called educated Farang would make Cactus (my old dead dog) turn in her grave.

Can we, at least, stand up and create the bench mark and maybe have a sensible 'online' discussion/debate about the current situation? In doing so set the precident for a lot of the wackers out there in Thai Cloud Cookoo Land and maybe put Udon on the Map. ---- Excuse the Pun ---

Just a thought.

[westerby]

Seconded. Maybe Admin and Mods could stream the existing threads into one then we have a coherent line in following events. Is that workable?

[Tony Croweater]

If you're interested in a comprehensive coverage of events, check out the Bangkok Pundit blog, which includes news from Reuters etc, translations from the Thai media, and other sources:

http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/

Also good for in depth analysis is the blog run by the Australian National University's Andrew Walker and Oxford-based Nicholas Farrelly:

http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/

Both provide plenty of handy links.

[izzix]

The Malaysian Insider
Sunday November 30 2008
No happy ending to Thai power struggle

BANGKOK, Nov 29 - There appears to be no happy ending to the power struggle in Thailand, with all parties involved having painted themselves into a corner and the revered individual - Thailand's highest moral authority and arbiter of last resort - remaining silent.

Analysts say that despite attempts at negotiations between the government and protesters holding siege at Bangkok's main airports, events are likely to propel Thailand into anarchy and violence.

The anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters - entrenched behind quasi-military barricades at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports - have refused to leave and will be difficult to
dislodge without major violence.

If that occurs - and even if the police succeed in clearing the airports whatever the cost - it will not resolve the deeper crisis which pits Bangkok's old royalist elites against the rising power of elected politicians embodied by the deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, now in exile abroad.

Even if bloody clashes break out and prompt Thailand's an individual Adulyadej to install an interim caretaker administration in place of the elected one, that would but be a temporary salve.

The space for creative compromise is narrow. an individual has the power and moral authority, but some analysts fear the crisis has gone too far and become too complicated even for him to defuse.

"The situation is very complex; finding a solution acceptable to all sides is difficult," a senior politician close to the ruling party's inner circle told The Straits Times.

Another suggested way out is a military takeover, which many in the PAD have openly called for, and which many analysts say looks increasingly inevitable.

But army intervention will instead spawn its own complications, not least how to disengage from politics eventually.

And then there is the stand-off between the PAD and the Somchai government.

The PAD claims to be fighting to eliminate corruption in politics and to "save" the monarchy from what it says are closet republicans in Thaksin's network.

The movement claims to be peaceful, but has built up a cult-like ideology and is protected by armed hired hands. It has overrun public buildings to pressure the government to resign and pave the way for "new politics" in which Parliament would be semi-appointed rather than wholly elected.

But "new politics" would require amending the Constitution - possible only if the present government is unseated.

When an individual appeared at the funeral of a PAD protester accidentally killed by an exploding teargas shell when police broke up a protest on Oct 7, it confirmed to many Thais that she supports the movement.

Such powerful backing partly explains the army's reluctance to back the use of force against the PAD, and has paralysed the police, allowing the movement a largely free run which is rapidly bringing the country's
economy to its knees.

Chulalongkorn University political science lecturer Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "The damage, both immediate and long term, is incalculable."

Thailand could be headed for "broadbased civil strife", he said.

Violent confrontation between the police and the PAD may bring out the army to unseat the government - whose Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is holed up in Chiang Mai.

Somchai has refused to resign. The ruling party believes if he did, it would make little difference because the next prime minister would still be from the People Power Party (PPP) - something the PAD will not accept.

Besides, the PPP has learnt from 2006, when dissolving Parliament and holding an election solved nothing. The coup in September 2006 saw the Constitution abolished, the ruling party dissolved and 111 executives
banned from politics, and a committee of conservatives rewrite the Constitution. Yet Thaksin's loyalists won the next elections.

An army coup will be resisted by PPP supporters, referred to as the "red shirts" after the colour they wear in a counter- strategy to the PAD's use of the royal yellow to signify their support of an individual.

The "red shirts" have been given instructions to come out in force only if the army intervenes. In such a scenario, each PPP Member of Parliament will summon thousands for a rally in Bangkok.

And they would fight against the army should there be a coup.

The army is well aware of this. Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, whose relationship with the Prime Minister has soured to the point where the general often does not take the Premier's phone calls, has himself
repeatedly said a coup will solve nothing.

There is another fearful fork in the road that Thailand could take: the radicals among the 'red shirts' losing patience and attacking the PAD.

"There is a lot of pent-up anger, and when they do come out they will go on a rampage," Prof Thitinan said.

That will certainly lead to pitched battles and deaths, and the army, in an attempt to restore order, will be sucked into a vicious three-cornered fight.

Political commentator Suranand Vejjajiva, formerly a minister in Thaksin's Cabinet, wrote yesterday in The Bangkok Post: "The gloves are off. All deals are void. Thailand's current political conflict has virtually
destroyed all the trust and respect between the political players." - The Straits Times

[Tony Croweater]

Given the Constitution Court decision which will more than likely dissolve the PPP on Tuesday, I tend to lean toward a 'judicial coup' occurring.

But what happens after that doesn't bear thinking about. Hopefully the much anticipated individual's birthday speech on Friday will calm the situation.

[Bandung_Dero]

One debate I have been following concerns ‘Vote Buying’ here is a snippet.

QUOTE (cjd @ 2008-11-29 07:32:22) *
Ok I do live in Issan in a village, it is true that so called vote buying takes place but I can assure you that it is by ALL Parties not just the Trt - PPP, The villagers attitude is take the money from everone and then vote for their preferred choice, I've tried arguing this but they say EVERY politician only turns up once every few years whens theres an election, promises the world then disappears till next time, sounds very much like candidates back in my home country only there they call it Pork Barrelling.

A reply from a guy living in Bangkok.

QUOTE (stub @ 2008-11-29 11:12:52) *
You live in a village, which is not representative of all villages. Political parties pick their battles, or perhaps the local leaders where strong enough to resist bribes or cunning enough to ensure equal bribes. If you lived somewhere that ended up being paid equally by both sides leaving people to choose freely, great! The experience in your village does not mean at other places there was only one bus or people filling in election forms on behalf of voters or bribes or threats of violence.

This guy and others go on to effectively say that only PPP should be charged with vote buying as they won --- can you figure that logic?

My response:-

From "Bangkok" ah. You certainly know it all!! I live in an Isaan village as well and agree totally with cjd. The bribes are rarely equal, depends on what the budget will allow. Doesn't matter if it's 200 Baht or 50 most vote for their favourite and 'threats of violence' where did you get that from? My TW is and has been for many years, for want of a better term, the local 'Returning Officer' responsible for marking off the roles and controlling the ballot boxes, counting etc. and I assure you she does not tolerate any funny business.

To put some perspective on this issue what are some of the experiences you guys, here in the boonies, had with the vote buying thing? eg. Have you seen buses picking up voters on election day, handing them all a 500 Baht note and dropping them off at the booths? I certainly haven't but some are saying that sort of thing is the norm here in Isaan. As in my response I know money changes hands but 500 Baht, threats of violence???

[Tony Croweater]

This is off the thread a little, yet it does lie at the root of the PAD's campaign - that money politics and corruption have underpinned electoral politics since the 1980s. They appear to seek a government of 'good and able people' (like Chamlong or Anand), and to achieve this they see the solution being a largely appointed parliament and the abrogation of democracy.

In the past, the urban middle class has argued that villagers vote purely out of self-interest, and that the middle class, because they are more discerning and better educated, vote in the national interest. Yet as Anthony Downs wrote in the late 1950s (and many others have reiterated since), constituents participating in democratic elections, be they wealthy or urban middle class or rural poor, have long been recognised as parochial and self-interested ahead of, but not necessarily excluding, wider political considerations.

James Scott (‘Patron-Client Politics and Political Change in Southeast Asia’, The American Political Science Review, vol. 66, no. 1, March 1972) long ago documented the correlation between patronage and three ‘necessary conditions’ for its continued viability: firstly, the persistence of inequalities in the distribution of wealth, which have largely been accepted as legitimate; secondly, the absence of impersonal guarantees of physical security, status, and wealth; thirdly, the kinship unit remains an ineffective vehicle for personal security or advancement. Allen Hicken, and later, William Callahan in their research three decades later found much the same conditions remained, explaining the persistence of vote-buying. Anek Laothamatas concluded that vote-buying thus resulted from prevailing social conditions, and not the moral bankruptcy of villagers.

Personally, I would argue that those of us who have experience of democracy at home are subject to indirect vote-buying come election time anyway. What's the difference between a promised tax-cut and receiving 500 baht in the hand, and little else beyond?

Sorry all, but the thread does say 'The Sensible Discussion Thread'!

[UdonExpat]

The red shirts are holding a rally today. I've read that they anticipate 100,000 government supporters to attend.

I'll be happy is this rally comes off without becoming a riot. The red shirts have previously stated that if the police do not remove PAD from parliament they will do so. I fear that will happen today with the attendant bloodshed that frustration and anger will fuel.

They have also recently started claiming that the Judiciary is corrupt and needs to be removed. That could also happen today. I doubt they will wait for a ruling to further diminish the current government's standing. Therefore, I don't think there will be a judicial coup, as I don't think they be in place come Tuesday.

I find following Thai political process to be quite a interesting pastime and a real challenge to get a feel for it. I'm usually wrong in my predictions, and it's an ongoing series of surprises. Just wish it wasn't quite so close to home.

[Bandung_Dero]

Chamlong vows airport occupation to continue


Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, announced Sunday morning that the PAD would not pull out from the two Bangkok airports.

He told the crowd at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport that the people would get a victor on December 2.

The Nation

I thought he said it would be all over on Wed Nov 26th OR was that just wishful thinking on his part?

I've read that they anticipate 100,000 government supporters to attend.

So is this PPP's little bit of wishful thinking?

[Kaiheitai]

Has anybody heard some of the b#$$it Sondhi, Chamlong and the rest spout off about? If these idiots get into power it won't just be bad for Thailand but the region... They think arm conflict with Cambodia would be a fantatsic idea... Truly they appear semi-fascist, and I don't mean that in the stoner hippy college kid insult way, I mean they really have some national socialist tendencies.

[Kaiheitai]

Also I wonder what this will do to the Baht! I trade currencies for fun, just small $100-200 lots but I'm sure the baht will be headin back 40's way... to bad the spread is so insanely large.

[AussieBoy]

Protesters in Thailand are luring children into their airport rally by paying mums and dads to give up their kids, according to an Australian trapped in the country.

Thousands of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy have blocked Thailand's two main airports, preventing up to 10,000 tourists from leaving and sending businesses that operate within the terminals broke.

Inga Vennell, who was due to leave the country on Wednesday after a backpacking trip, told ninemsn shopkeepers, out-of-pocket tourists and children were being paid to join the rally.

"People who work at clothing stores, cafes and bars — and who don’t have any affiliation with the protesters — are getting paid about 100 Baht ($AU4.30) to go in there.

"We're not sure who is paying them but they're saying its great; there's so much food and water.

"The protesters have made walls of barricades that are made with boxes of water wrapped in barbed wire."

Families who joined the "peaceful" demonstration with babies or children were getting paid more, Ms Vennell said.

"Many families are pushing their children to enter into the situation to provide more money for their families," she said.

The idea is that the military or police won't use as much force because children were still there, she said.

Ms Vennell said the more violent protesters — the "rebels" — were taking stimulants and pills to keep themselves awake, which was making them more agitated and angry.

"They've tied together airport trolleys and wrapped barbed wire around them — that's what the police are having trouble getting through," she said.

Demonstrators seized the Suvarnabhumi international airport on Tuesday night and the smaller Don Muang airport on Wednesday.

The alliance has accused the government of being a puppet of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in 2006 and fled overseas to escape corruption charges.

Thailand's current prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, is Thaksin's brother-in-law.

Police overnight cordoned off the protesters, sparking fears a showdown is imminent.

The five-day protest inside the airport has so far been without violence but a grenade attack against protesters who have occupied the prime minister's office in Bangkok has wounded 46 people, emergency services said.

National Chief General Pateep Tanprasert said he was following the prime minister's orders to end the crisis "as soon as possible".

"My strategy is also based on non-violence," Chief General Pateep said.

"Currently, we are trying to open negotiations with protesters."

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

Do I take cattle class on Singapore to Phuket, or wait for Thai air with a business class ticket confirmed up grade
Singapore leaves Tuesday night, could see some old GF in Phuket for a day or two then bus it to Udon, problem is I have 50+ kg of baggage for the Ban nor lae school project, teaching aids in English for the schools teachers, that a lot of carrying around of excess baggage and fees, with Thai no charge for the extra baggage,

The stress of decision, back to licking my lemonade icecream and what I'll do this week as I packed away all the tools for work.

Kally
QBSA 41300

[AussieBoy]

Wont be flying with Air Issan

http://www.isaanair.com/

Very bold move supporting the PAD and have a No Fly List of People as well

best political statements I seen in a long time, check out the OUR NATION page

[Kaiheitai]

Wow somebody actually put a lot of effort into that, Issan Republic eh ?!?!? Either some expat has too much freetime or its some kind of weird school project... still thats great

[AussieBoy]

I think its the Gi s from korat joke

[polehawk]

Has the clandestine earmarks of the USAF boys from Nakhon Phanom. They call their group TILC (pronounced Tee-Lac) Brotherhood. Whole can of coke with somtam? Where can I book a direct flight to Pattaya?

Back to the serious business at hand. It's becoming more obvious that neither the police or army will act on behalf of the elected government and a social coup will occur on Chewsday. Err, that's Tuesday, ennit guys?

[WBU ALUM]

What's the difference between a promised tax-cut and receiving 500 baht in the hand, and little else beyond?

The "sensible" response to the difference is that the tax cut allows you to keep money that you earned and is already yours! That 500 baht in the hand was earned by someone else and belongs to them!

Sorry, but the subject did say 'sensible'.

[Kaiheitai]

Economist : Thailand's election
South-East Asia's Pakistan?
Dec 19th 2007 | UBON RATCHATHANI
......Middle-class Bangkokians, who are as snooty about their country cousins as any metropolitan elite anywhere, often say that “uneducated” rural voters such as those in Isaan were bribed and tricked into voting for Mr Thaksin. But rural voters were quite rational in handing him landslide victories in 2001 and 2005. He was Thailand's first party leader to promise and deliver a comprehensive set of policies aimed at the mass of voters. The allegations of corruption, conflicts of interest and vote-buying that surround him are serious but hardly unusual: such practices are endemic in Thai politics.

Working Paper Series: No. 28
Developing Democracy under a New Constitution in Thailand:
http://www.asianbarometer.org/newenglis ... /no.28.pdf

Some studies (Albritton and Prabudhanitisarn, 1997; Albritton, et al., 1995) indicate that these differences between urban and rural constituencies disappear when controlling for education. However, secondary analysis of data gathered by Logerfo (1996) indicates that, even controlling for education, significant differences between Bangkok and rural areas remain. More recent research (Albritton and Bureekul, 2001; Albritton and Bureekul, 2002) supports the latter view

In think whether votes are being bought or not that the Krung Tep elites have alienated Issan and the North on all levels as the study above seems to suggest... Lets also not forget Sohndi was loving Thaksin when he was getting all kinds of debt written off from gov't banks and it was only after the pork barrel dried up that he went ballistic. Truth is Sondhi is just a spoiled elitist looking out for his share of the pie and using the monarchy as a bullet sponge

From Wiki: In 2004, state-owned Krung Thai Bank (KTB) shocked Thailand's financial world by reclassifying approximately Bt40 billion as problem loans. It was rumored that M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula, the Bank of Thailand's governor, would fire KTB CEO Viroj Nualkhair if he did not resign voluntarily. Viroj Nualkhair was Sondhi's former financial advisor, having helped him IPO one of his first companies.[9] As Krung Thai Bank's CEO, Viroj had forgiven Sondhi's debts by Bt1.6 billion and arranged for further rounds of forgiveness.

[Bandung_Dero]

Anyone seen the 'official' head count for the DAAD/PPP red shirt rally yesterday? Did I say Official! OK I'll harve the difference estimated by both sides.

[Tony Croweater]

That 500 baht in the hand was earned by someone else and belongs to them!

'Earned', you reckon?

Anyone seen the 'official' head count for the DAAD/PPP red shirt rally yesterday? Did I say Official! OK I'll harve the difference estimated by both sides.

Have seen little more than a single photograph thus far. The media (both in Thailand and internationally) seem somewhat reluctant to report on the red shirt rally.