Udon Political Poll

[Laan Yaa Mo]

The Nation newspaper published a political survey of Udon's residents, and their political preferences. I don't know if they would get the same results in Khon Kaen.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand ... s/40025629

[jackspratt]

Uncle, they probably wouldn't even get the same results now in Udon, nearly 6 months after the survey you link to.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Uncle, they probably wouldn't even get the same results now in Udon, nearly 6 months after the survey you link to.

It does seem a bit dated. This is a good reminder to not use The Nation as a reliable source in the future, and to try and comprehend what is written in the article.

[JimboPSM]

A better (and far more inclusive) indicator took place on 14th May 2023 – the 2023 general election.

However, while it may be a better indicator the “Parallel voting” system used which combines a first past the post (FPTP) system for “Constituency” MP’s” and a proportional representation (PR) system for ”Party List” MP’s adds quite some degree of work (and some degree of confusion) to understanding the numbers.

The FPTP data for the ten Udon Thani constituencies provides the following:

Total votes: 842,389 (100.0%)
Pheu Thai votes: 328,651 (39.0%)
Move Forward votes: 229,351 (27.2%)
Other parties votes: 284,387 (33.8%)

Direct comparison of Pheu Thai and Move Forward data for the ten Udon Thani constituencies provides the following:

Total votes: 558,002 (100.0%)
Pheu Thai votes: 328,651 (58.9%)
Move Forward votes: 229,351 (41.1%)

Data source: https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result/en/in-depth/4

If I can find the time I will analyse the PR data (It should be of great interest to all the forum psephologists as opportunities to directly compare FPTP and PR data are quite rare).

If I do find the time I suspect that the cultish nature of Pheu Thai support will have an adverse impact on the PR percentages in Udon when compared to the FPTP percentages.

Once political parties are recognised as being "cultish" they attract precious little support from those outside the cult and start to lose support from those who are still cognitively aware within the cult.

In the unlikely event of there being a rerun of the general election it is highly likely that Pheu Thai numbers would markedly decrease as they recently demonstrated that their lust for power is such that they are willing to get into bed with the old guard.

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[Laan Yaa Mo]

This is interesting set of statistics.

As for Pheu Thai and their willingness to give in and dump MFP, it goes to prove that politics is 'the art of the possible'. However, I think that the old guard is still in control and Pheu Thai will be gone quickly if they follow Pita's lead and tamper with the military budget, try to reduce the number of generals and eliminate the generals sitting on Boards of Directors.

Let's see what Thaksin will do, if he is still pulling strings. I understand Prawit's brother is going to get a cabinet post Let's see what it is, and if he has a powerful say in policy formation.

[JimboPSM]

2023 General Election Results for Pheu Thai and Move Forward in Udon Thani (10 Constuencies)

• Pheu Thai results

  

• Move Forward results

  

Some notes & observations:

1. In the 2023 General Election Thailand used a mixed electoral system to elect its lower chamber.

2. The mixed electoral system used by Thailand combines two elements:
2.1. First Past The Post (FPTP) Votes.
2.2. Proportional Representation (PR) Votes aka "Party-list Votes".

3. There were 67 "parties" in the ten Udon Thani constituencies in the 2023 General Election.

4. PR can produce some results that, at first sight, appear to be counterintuitive. The election in Udon provided an interesting example of this. If the election of the ten Constituency MP's seats in Udon Thani had been under PR then:
4.1. Pheu Thai would have won 2 additional seats, UT3 & UT6, with an extra 24,496 PR votes.
4.2. The Thai Sang Thai party would have lost both of its 2 seats, UT3 & UT6, to Pheu Thai after losing 29,898 PR votes in UT3 and 23,980 PR votes in UT6.
4.3. Move Forward would have the same number of seats despite receiving an extra 65,476 PR votes (41,250 more PR votes than Pheu Thai).
4.4. Drilling down into the votes for Constituency MP’s in “4.1.”, “4.2.” & “4.3.” makes this easier to understand.

5. While there is (as yet) no perfect electoral system in countries that embrace democracy, the electorate in countries that have adopted PR appear to be happier with the results of PR than they were with FPTP (even if their fringes of loony left and rabid right politicians are not).

6. Data source: https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result/en/geo

7. information sources:
7.1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportio ... esentation
7.2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-pas ... ost_voting
7.3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting
7.4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party-lis ... esentation
7.5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed-mem ... esentation

CAUTION:
1. As I do not have details of the actual methodology used in the Thailand 2023 General Election, the operation and the oversight with which the election was conducted and as I have only analysed a partial subset of the results it is impossible to give an objective opinion on the results.
2. The data in the charts only uses a single source (see “6” above).
3. The notes and observations include “information” that I have gleaned from a multitude of sources some of which are as noted above and some from some highly suspect sources (e.g. social media).

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[tamada]

Diligent, insightful work and an honest disclaimer, thanks Jimbo.

PS: You'd make a lousy pollie.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

This is really interesting and informative. Thanks for the marked improvement on the original post in this thread.