EU in or out? Brexit: The Movie

[stattointhailand]

Had to have a chuckle this morning watching Sky News. After all the comments about 51.?% being a majority and cannot be questioned even if it has no legal validity, we have the first "post brexit vote" by the doctors who voted 58% to ignore their unions advice and not accept the offer, and every man jack was saying that they only had 2/3 who voted or they were missled etc etc ..... everything EXCEPT it was a MAJORITY that shouldn't be questioned

[Zidane]

£1 = $1.16 at end of September is one prediction.
UK has large current account and fiscal deficits and needed the EU much more than the EU needed UK. An economy can't be propped up with soundbites and slogans.
I think expats should be planning for a ฿40 = £1 future. Possibly less.

I suppose married guys who currently get a visa extension on retirement (65k monthly) might have to consider getting the extension based on marriage (40k monthly).
But what happens to married guys whose income drops below 40k a month,if the pound continues to slide and they havent got the money in a Thai bank ?

This looks a peaceful,relaxing place and currently easy to get a long stay visa......

[MrFixer]

Listening to BBC R4 this morning (UK time). Representative from Julius bank (consistently most accurate exchange rate prediction apparently) saying he sees 'no reason why Sterling won't fall to parity with the US dollar within the next two years'. That would mean £1 = 36 Baht. I think a lot of expats would struggle at that... And not only in Thailand. Spain etc would become prohibitively expensive too.

[stattointhailand]

But what happens to married guys whose income drops below 40k a month,if the pound continues to slide and they havent got the money in a Thai bank ?

Perhaps those nice people in immigration will allow a marriage visa with under 40k a month topped up by a Thai Bank a/c balance like the retirement visa Well perhaps not :-"

[stattointhailand]

Listening to BBC R4 this morning (UK time). Representative from Julius bank (consistently most accurate exchange rate prediction apparently) saying he sees 'no reason why Sterling won't fall to parity with the US dollar within the next two years'. That would mean £1 = 36 Baht. I think a lot of expats would struggle at that... And not only in Thailand. Spain etc would become prohibitively expensive too.

And for many of those Non expats it will be too expensive to live in England/Wales

Millions of English/Welsh immigrants climbing over the barbed wire at Gretna Green and claiming asylum in Europe :-"

[kulsungkham]

The British Foreign Secretary arrives at work for his first day on the job.

[pipoz4444]

Congratulations you picked the right man (Boris) for the job

pipoz4444

[stattointhailand]

Congratulations you picked the right man (Boris) for the job

pipoz4444

Boris will be alright ..... there must be loads of building contractors and their ilk who owe him a favour or six from his time as Night mayor of London

[pipoz4444]

Congratulations you picked the right man (Boris) for the job

pipoz4444

Boris will be alright ..... there must be loads of building contractors and their ilk who owe him a favour or six from his time as Night mayor of London

I wasn't being sarcastic or cynical. I actually think Boris will do OK as well

pipoz4444

[Zidane]

More great financial news for us Brits !

Flash crash sees the pound gyrate in Asian trading

The pound has dived on Asian markets with automated trading being blamed for the volatility.
At one stage it fell as much as 6% to $1.1841 - the biggest move since the Brexit vote - before recovering to $1.24, still down 1.5%.
It is not clear what triggered the sudden sell-off. Analysts say it could have been automated trading systems reacting to a news report.
The pound has been volatile since the UK voted to leave the European Union.
The sharp drop came after the Financial Times published a story online about French President Francois Hollande demanding "tough Brexit negotiations".
"It's difficult to know exactly what triggered it," Angus Nicholson, market analyst with IG in Melbourne, told the BBC.
Analysts speculate that a computer may have been set to scan the news for negative Brexit stories, with the order to sell if it found any.
The trigger could have also been a simple mistake, or what's know as a fat finger trade, when a trader enters a wrong number.

[JimboPSM]

As a special exercise this year I have been tracking the GBP & EUR on their Indexed Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Value and created a couple of new “combined” charts of the GBP and EUR which, hopefully, are self-explanatory.

What they clearly show is that the GBP and the EUR have been heading, and quite dramatically so, in opposite directions for most of 2016.

Irrespective of whether you look at the GBP and the EUR since:

• 1. 1st January 2016 or
  
  2. From when UK turkeys voted for Christmas (23rd June 2016)
  
  The EUR has risen in both cases and the GBP has fallen in both cases (but in the latter case the fall has been to a substantially greater degree – effectively a major devaluation of the pound).

This will come as little or no surprise to those with critical thinking abilities, a knowledge of basic economics, common sense and who actually did their homework before the Brexit vote; those that did were more than well aware that for the economy as a whole there was absolutely no credible economic case for Brexit - compare and contrast with the unquestioning minds of the bigoted little sheep that lapped up the pro Brexit fairy tales and nonsense.

Unfortunately for Expat Brits, while there is no prospect of a real recovery for the pound while Prime Minister May pigheadedly continues to put the xenophobic Brexit agenda ahead of the interests of the UK economy, there is a prospect of yet further downsides to the international value of the GBP.

The following charts are Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes for the GBP and the EUR which I have rebased to 100%, firstly at 1st January 2016 and secondly at 23rd June 2016 (when UK turkeys voted for Christmas).

• From 1st January 2016

  

  From 23rd June 2016

  

  Please note that the charts above are only to 6th October, data relating to today (7th October) will not be available until early next week. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, the figures for today for the GBP will probably be some 2 percent worse than those above (and they are pretty damn bad to start with).

For some additional context on the GBP over a much longer period of time, below is a chart of the Trade Weighted Effective Exchange Rate Index (Narrow) since 1980 – one aspect that few have recognised and can clearly be seen on this chart is that the ideologically driven imposition of Supply Side Economics (aka Voodoo Economics & Trickle-down Economics) caused a substantial fall (about 25%) in the value of the GBP during the Thatcher & Major years:

• GBP Annual Effective Exchange Rate Index (Narrow) from 1980

  

For further context, below is the US Dollar Index chart for DTWEXM (Major), some similarities can be seen with the US Dollar Index when Supply Side Economics were in vogue (i.e. during the Reagan and Bush 43 administrations).

• US Dollar Index DTWEXM from 1973

  

Note: As can be seen below, the rise of Trump during the GOP primaries closely correlates with a fall in the international value of the USD in 2016 (while correlation may not necessarily be causation, there are precious few who would doubt that in this case).

This bears some similarities to the run up to Brexit, the main difference being that the foreign exchange markets learnt a very hard lesson from Brexit, i.e. wilfully ignorant turkeys will vote for Christmas......

• US Dollar Index (daily) rebased to 1stJanuary 2016

  

  While there has been a modicum of recovery with Hillary Clinton winning the Democrat nomination, the USD will not recover from its 2016 slump until it is absolutely certain that the profoundly ignorant Trump and his economically illiterate fiscal policies (more accurately, bumper sticker slogans) and bigoted base are consigned to the trash can of history.
  
  However, even then the subversive forces that his racist, bigoted, misogynistic and seriously factually challenged campaign have unleashed will both delay and limit the degree of recovery.

[BobHelm]

Well thanks for that Jimbo...

It is a truly depressing thought that the only hope of the GBP recovering in the next few years would appear to rely on Americans voting for Mr. Trump to become their next President.

I dread to think what is going to happen to the pound once the 'details' of the EU exit actually emerge over the next couple of years.
Seeing as almost all of the remaining EU members have made it quite plain that there will be no free movement of goods & capital without free movement of labour, & the Tory right wing are adamant that an out of EU Britain must control its borders, anything like a satisfactory agreement seems unlikely...

[Lone Star]

As a special exercise this year I have been tracking the GBP & EUR on their Indexed Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Value and created a couple of new “combined” charts of the GBP and EUR which, hopefully, are self-explanatory.

What they clearly show is that the GBP and the EUR have been heading, and quite dramatically so, in opposite directions for most of 2016.

. . .

While there has been a modicum of recovery with Hillary Clinton winning the Democrat nomination, the USD will not recover from its 2016 slump until it is absolutely certain that the profoundly ignorant Trump and his economically illiterate fiscal policies (more accurately, bumper sticker slogans) and bigoted base are consigned to the trash can of history.

However, even then the subversive forces that his racist, bigoted, misogynistic and seriously factually challenged campaign have unleashed will both delay and limit the degree of recovery. [/list]

Yeah, nothing like homemade graphs and biased media-talking-point political views to go with them. Makes it all seem pretty lacking in integrity, but you're always entitled to your opinion.

[parrot]

JimboPSM.....your learned insight always welcome.
For those still enjoying the Brexit party:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/world ... ended.html

[AlexO]

"The immediate cause of the plunge appeared to be a speech by the French president, François Hollande, on Thursday evening in Paris, in which he endorsed the view that Britain must be forced to swallow unpalatable terms of departure to discourage other European Union members from eyeing the exits."
If it is such a great project why would anybody else want to leave the EU ? Massive unemployment, banks bust or about to be, being dictated to by the cheese eating white flag wavers and Germans. A good idea in the 70's (Group of 7)that has become a nightmare. Why would any developed nation actively encourage all these Eastern Euopean and worse Turkey to be part of the Federal State if it was not for the Banks being able to give them massive loans ie Greece, Spain etc. 10 years and it will be finished.

[papafarang]

everyone is missing the big picture, how about we reciprocate , how about we tell them ok make it a hard brit exit, well then, how about we return our guest workers to france , all of them. what I see here is the European federal state trying to annex the uk using political and economics strategies. the total lack of respect for democracy is glaring at us . it is in fact the completion of a process that started in 1939 by Germany. if we fail in this, then democracy fails. We as British need to face the fact that we are at war, not with any country , but with an idea. after the fall of communism all of expansion of state should have faded, but it went the other way, Europe expanded. with NATO busy moving troops and weapons next to Russian boarders and at the same time accusing Russia of aggression .
we have been fooled, led to believe the EU project was about harmony ,democracy and justice. its not,its about capitalism ,greed and control of the masses, this is not a conspiracy it a fact.
sadly its working, as our hope now relies with the Americans saving our ass from the European expansion.... hang on didn't we do this before ? a couple of times ?

[BobHelm]

Quite the opposite Papa.

The UK wants out of paying any bills for being a member of a club but still wants all the benefits of membership.
Quite rightly, in any circumstance, the remaining members of the club are going to tell them to get stuffed.

It is true that the UK can do 'tit for tat' in areas like 'guest workers' but that is going to leave parts of industry in the UK without any labour - as no UK person is going to take on the work with the bad working conditions associated with it. So there is not going to be any ejection of EU workers already in the country before Brexit that is for sure. The queen Bee in number 10 has already stated as much..

& anyone who thinks that the UK is going to get any economic favours from either Wall Street in chief Clinton or Isolationist in chief Trump is going to get a very severe shock. Either will have enough economic woes of their own to deal with back in the US of A...

[papafarang]

what we need then Bob is to get out of the EU so those crappy jobs can be improved in conditions and pay. I've been back for a couple of month, I can assure you plenty of British are working in low paid hard work that British are said not to want, last month I visited a farm where they were finishing up for the winter. I was talking to a guy and his wife who run a market stall, and every morning he came to the farm to pick produce, while his wife worked at the market. as for the farmer, he admitted 50% of his pickers were probably illegal ,working for below minimum wage. and how it gets away with it... simply put up a sign saying PYO (pick your own), they pick fruit and then he buys directly from the pickers, no tax ,no national insurance and no responsibility to workers. and the best thing ,its not illegal either. a gang master brings them every morning, the farmer buys the picked fruit giving the money direct, when the gang master turns up to collect, he puts his hand out to every fruit picker for some cash for bringing them there and dropping them off . good for the farmer, good for the gang master ,but crappy for the British and European workers .and all possible under EU regulations

[BobHelm]

but crappy for the British and European workers .and all possible under EU regulations

There you are very wrong Papa. It is illegal under EU law.

One of the things that people do not realise is that for the last 15 years the only makers of laws that have attempted to protect the worker have been made by the EU. The British Government has done nothing - worse it has permitted things like zero hours contracts - things that are impossible to do in other European countries.
Anyone that thinks that the rights of workers will get better under Brexit has only to look at where the laws protecting workers rights have come from - none have come from the British Labour or Conservative Governments for the last 15 years - it is foolish to think that things are going to get better now - rather the opposite!!

The EU, for all its' faults is quite happy to stand up to the likes of Google, Apple & the large Chemical companies. The British Government, on the other hand, makes them pay taxation that is a criminal representation of what they should be paying.
The EU was one of the last chances for countries to stand up to multinationals, the British Government will be licking their shoes in no time at all...

[papafarang]

well Bob I think we're pretty much up poo river what ever we do. as for those workers there seen as self employed, he don't even know their names ,and he don't care sadly. yes Bob that zero hour contracts is disgusting and the root of worker exploitation