Thai general election, 2011

[trubrit]

There must be many stories coming up in the next month so thought it a good idea to make a general heading for them .
In the Uk its not unknown for candidates to go round kissing babies, here they obviously do it differently .

abhisithugged.jpg

Don't think Abbie was amused .

[merchant seaman]

Maybe slipping a 500 baht note into pocket. Don't forget to stock up on beer. No buying of beer on election day (except the mom and pop shops)

[nkstan]

Maybe slipping a 500 baht note into pocket. Don't forget to stock up on beer. No buying of beer on election day (except the mom and pop shops)

Speaking of 500 baht!My wife was approached by a Thai man this morning asking who she would vote for.She she didn't know and asked who was running?He told her if she voted for Yingluck she could get 500 baht.Get it at the end of the month at Tesco-Lotus

[pienmash]

Very interesting interview with Ms Yingluck in the newspaper today , many questions directed at her big bro Thaksin . I was interested to learn about the possibily of an amesty for all criminal offenders back dated to a specific date , strangely enough this if it goes thru would wipe out all of Thaksins dodgy record and mean a speedy return to no doubt assist the new prime minister in some way.... Her reply .......... the amesty will be for all not for an individual !!! hohohoho Santas coming early as it could be as soon as November when the main man returns .

I not sure but i think the weekend before the elections and the actual election weekend will be "dry" no booze sales .

mash .

[jackspratt]

Unfortunately for Ms Yings big brother, he needs a pardon rather than an amnesty, as he has already been found guilty, and sentenced to jail.

A pardon, as I understand it, can only come from one very, very important person. It also involves acknowledging your crime - can you imagine Thaksin doing that?

[pienmash]

Unfortunately for Ms Yings big brother, he needs a pardon rather than an amnesty, as he has already been found guilty, and sentenced to jail.

A pardon, as I understand it, can only come from one very, very important person. It also involves acknowledging your crime - can you imagine Thaksin doing that?

Yes ..... Maybe ..... NO

[parrot]

In the land where anything is possible, there seems little doubt to me that if the sister wins, all will be forgiven/forgotten with no pardon necessary. And because of that, if the sister wins, the military will have to step in and fulfill its duty.
That's the way I see it.
And, as I see it, the sister is in the lead.....I can almost hear the tanks rumbling already!

[thaisurin]

Even more interesting to some observers....it's almost a "civilian" election campaign - on the surface, of course.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Here is one of two recent interviews the Globe and Mail (Toronto) had with Mr. Thaksin:

Paranoia preventing reconciliation, Thaksin says
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, May. 30, 2011 7:09PM EDT
Last updated Monday, May. 30, 2011 7:20PM EDT

He is at once the most successful politician in Thailand’s history and its most controversial. Deposed in a 2006 military coup after winning the second of back-to-back landslide elections, Thaksin Shinawatra has for the past five years been living on the lam, evading a corruption conviction and trying to find a way to return home and perhaps even to political power there.

MORE RELATED TO THIS STORY
Thai's Yingluck hoping to ride on brother’s coattails


These days he lives a comfortable life in a villa in the Emirates Hills neighbourhood of Dubai, playing the occasional round of golf while keeping in close contact with his supporters, who hope that a July 3 election in Thailand – in which his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is standing for prime minister – may set in motion events that will see Mr. Thaksin granted an amnesty.

Over the course of two days of interviews, Mr. Thaksin granted The Globe and Mail unprecedented access to his private life in exile, and discussed the coup, the crackdown and the coming elections. Here is an edited transcript from parts of those conversations.

Q: How is the campaign going so far?

A. I think it looks very good. The popularity of the party and Yingluck is getting more and more [in the] lead.

What would a Pheu Thai (Mr. Thaksin’s party) government do, if it’s allowed to form the next government?

They cannot allow or not allow. If the people wish and the people vote for us more than 50 per cent, then we – if we have the highest number – we have the right to form the government.

But what would you do in government? You talk about reconciliation, but I met with (a senior Red Shirt leader), and he was telling me that they would put Prime Minister Abhisit (Vejjajiva) and other senior people on trial. How do you reconcile like that?

This is the paranoia [that exists] between each other. Stop the paranoia, stop enforcing law [in a] politically motivated way and then come together and talk.

Let me ask about May 19 of last year. How did that feel for you? Where were you?

I was in Paris. They spotted me on the day before the crackdown. I was in Louis Vuitton. And then they put the photograph on the front page and the next day they said I’m a terrorist. So the terrorist planning in Louis Vuitton? Oh well, this terrorist likes luxury. But actually, you know, I was travelling at that time. Travelling in Paris.

How did you find out what was going on?

I was informed all the time. Even the military, they did not agree with the orders, but they had no choice. They reported to me, ‘I don’t know what’s going on, we’ve been ordered to crack down. It will be very brutal.’ So after live ammunition, after snipers, after tanks – this is actually like the reason they issued an arrest warrant for [Libyan leader Moammar] Gadhafi.

Did you feel guilty at all, when you called in and found out the army was shooting your supporters?

Yes, but I didn’t do any calling at all during the fighting. I did not want to be alleged to be instigating.

You say you want to return to Thailand. Why not go confront the charges against you? Even at worst, if as you say, the courts aren’t fair, you serve your two years (that Mr. Thaksin was sentenced to following a 2008 corruption conviction in absentia). You’d be free by now.

If someone can order the court, and they don’t even listen to our side, you don’t have a free and fair court system. … This is politically motivated. They want to keep me outside of Thailand. That’s the bottom line. They just want to keep me outside Thailand. And at the same time, when my supporters are still supporting me, they beat my supporters, they bully them.

But your supporters have no choice but to go to jail. You’re able to live here. Is that a good example for them, for your supporters?

They want me to be ready. They want me to go back to help them, to help the country. They know that, they realize that. It’s not choice or no choice. We are fighting for justice.

– Mark MacKinnon, Dubai

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le2040491/


The second interview is here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le2039245/

[pienmash]

Again today the lovely Yingluck has declined to name a date for a televised face off debate with Apisit , i think he would demolish her and both Taksin and her know this so avoiding it at the mo , we all know Taksin is a master manipulator and pulling the election strings from afar, im led to beleive that Apist is in front in the baby kissing contest only and will be ousted very soon the way things are going.

This is pienmash reporting live from the center of the sausage universe Udonthani Thailand !!

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Taksin may have been a master manipulator at rebuilding Siam after the defeat to Burma at Ayutthaya; however, he was deposed after 12 or so years on the throne at Thonburi by the more resourceful Rama 1.

Let the Prime Minister debate Newin. Yingluck does not need to show off her intellectual and debating skills to win the election.

[hangsaboot]

Let the Prime Minister debate Newin. Yingluck does not need to show off her intellectual and debating skills to win the election.[/quote]
=D> =D> =D> =D>
hope to see you @ the next rally ,
down santapol way .

GBP - 55 BHT ,
WELCOME BACK TO THAILAND

[pienmash]

The only rally LYM will be off on is the Torronto caravan club rally to Vancooover to see the most famousist person in Canada errrrrrrrr ..... whoz that then ?? Saline Dejon the singer bird whos head is shaped like a parsnip.

Why doesnt she need to show "all" her skills to win the election ? shes gonna do it on looks and gender only then make a rite pillac of the job when i gets tuff........... then its enter big bro THAKSIN THE GREAT.

,mash.

[jackspratt]

Is Newin the PM in waiting?

If not, why would the heir-apparent not wish to debate the incumbent?

Oh!........that's right, he is stuck in Dubai.

From memory, the last time the Red Shirt "leadership" debated Abhisit (on national TV) they reached an agreement to hold an early election - only to renege shortly thereafter, upon receiving a phone call (apparent for all to see on TV) from Darth Vader.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Newin is more a individual maker than the PM-in-waiting. The recent tit-for-tat tradeoffs between Newin and the Democrats may be more for show so that the black shirts can retain their following in the Buriram electoral districts. Newin does not want to be seen as being too close to the Democrats since they are not the most popular group in the Buriram area.

Anyway, a debate between Newin and the PM might go a long way in revealing the source of the dispute, the whys and wherefores and so on. Is Newin really distancing himself from the Democrats for a possible reconciliation with your man in Dubai, or is it just show to keep Newin ahead of Yingluck in Buriram?

As for Yingluck, I do not see any advantage for her in debating the PM. She already seems to be ahead in the popular vote so why slow down the train for a debate?

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Yes, Khun Pienmash, Vancouver is the hot spot in Canada right now as they are competing for Lord Stanley's mug in that annual run-off for the ice-hockey championship vs. the Bruins of Boston.

Joni Mitchell and Shania Twain might be able to give Celine Dion a run for her money...as for Paul Anka, another Canadian crooner...well...all bets are off. Speaking of off, are you really advising your customers to get a tongue-lashing from your cream puddings by scraping it on the rusty tins?

[jackspratt]

Newin is more a individual maker ..............

A Freudian slip Uncle?

Even in Buriram, only one of 70+ provinces in Thailand.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Whoops...!!!

Buriram may only be one province; however, Newin has shown when he is needed it is possible for him to switch his allegiance to a more convenient resting place, which will help to boost a certain party, and a particular person, into power. He might hold that key again, which gives him a prominent role in the politics of the nation. Thus, it is not so easy to write him and Buriram off yet. It would certainly do well for the Democrats if Newin, and not Yingluck, wins the elections in Buriram.

[trubrit]

Whoops...!!!

Buriram may only be one province; however, Newin has shown when he is needed it is possible for him to switch his allegiance to a more convenient resting place, which will help to boost a certain party, and a particular person, into power. He might hold that key again, which gives him a prominent role in the politics of the nation. Thus, it is not so easy to write him and Buriram off yet. It would certainly do well for the Democrats if Newin, and not Yingluck, wins the elections in Buriram.

I think LYM you are forgetting something . First of all Newin is currently banned from holding political office, having been caught with a sack full of money at the last election , and currently the leader of PT has said , " We will never enter into a coalition with his party" individual maker indeed , but no chance of taking the crown . :-"
http://www.th4u.com/newin_chidchob.htm

[Laan Yaa Mo]

It was the following article that got me thinking about Newin again:-

Opinion > Opinion


Newin's guessing games
Published: 31/05/2011 at 12:00 AM


What a spoiler Newin Chidchob is. He has given us the results of the general election even before it has been held! And what a sly move, too. In one stroke Mr Newin has not only discounted the perceived value of the two top candidates - Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who is out to set a record for himself as a two-time PM, and the opposition's top candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, whose arrival on the election scene as the first-ever woman contender for the premiership, has recharged it beyond expectations - but has also promoted an individual-making status of his party, Bhumjaithai.

Did he get prominent space in the mass media? Plenty, across channels. Did he get people to talk about his rather enigmatic move? Certainly. Even now, people are still discussing why he did what he did, which is to say that he claims the Democrats would lose out to the opposition Pheu Thai in the upcoming election. The defeat would prompt PM Abhisit, with his "Oxford" spirit, to resign from the party's leadership. Ms Yingluck, meanwhile, would not get to sit pretty as the country's first woman prime minister either, according to Mr Newin. Thaksin realises that having another Shinawatra at the top would incur such massive ire from people who are still against him, that he wouldn't want to expose his little sister to it, Mr Newin said.

Suffice to say nobody knows the motive of Mr Newin's predictions save for himself. Still, it's fun to theorise, especially considering that this move is rather unusual since Bhumjaithai has been the Democrat Party's partner in the coalition government whose reunion is expected in the next attempt as well. So, why did Mr Newin seem to play against his own ally? There are a few theories based on this surface reading alone. One is that Mr Newin was not severing ties with the ruling party. Bhumjaithai is still willing to join hands with the Democrats in setting up a new coalition; but he was signalling to the Democrats to have a "reserve" candidate for premiership, one who is not as politically bruised as Mr Abhisit. The other theory is that Mr Newin was simply trying to douse the enthusiasm being reaped by the fresh-faced Ms Yingluck. Every poll has pointed out that the July 3 election will be a tight race. Every vote will count. Nobody would want it to go to waste.

But of course, there is a theory that what we are seeing is not always what is going on, which is usually the way in Thai politics. While on the surface Mr Newin's remark may appear as if he was trying to distance Bhumjaithai from the Democrats, another theory has it that such a move could be strategic.

According to this school of thought, the major battle for Bhumjaithai is in the Northeast, against Pheu Thai. Since the Democrats have never been popular in the area - the party won only five seats from the 100-plus available, it would not seem very wise for Bhumjaithai to be seen as carrying the Democrats on its shoulders as it parades around asking for votes in the region.

Indeed, from a reality-check perspective, it makes sense for Bhumjaithai to be seen as having a bone to pick with the Democrats. Such a perception could make people in the region believe they have something more in common with Bhumjaithai and think of it more like a friend to whom they could give their votes. The decoupling would work well for the Democrats, too. It's no secret that the ruling party's voting base is in Bangkok. It's no secret either that people in Bangkok are no admirers of Bhumjaithai's policies and projects, some of which, such as the proposal to rent some 4,000 buses at a cost higher than purchasing them outright, have been viewed with suspicion and indeed have been mired in negative criticism.

Considering the mutual benefits for both parties, Mr Newin's verbal attack on Mr Abhisit and the Democrats no longer seems so out of place. In fact, if we assume that they both had considered the scenario and agreed on this tactic of parting ways to get the votes and then rejoining once they gather the right number of seats, all the while pretending to make sarcastic remarks against one another from time to time to make the decoupling seem more realistic, we would have to admit that it was one smart move, a win-win solution for both parties that have been forced to play a defensive role against Pheu Thai.

As far as this conspiracy theory goes, there is a bonus for Mr Newin in this ploy, too. By distancing himself a bit from the Democrats, a new space opens up for friendship with Pheu Thai, however unlikely this may seem. It does not hurt for Bhumjaithai to be friends with the powerful, even if it is an old enemy.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opin ... sing-games