Australia and Floods

[jackspratt]

I recognise that the east coast has had constant rain and floods over the past 6 months, but contemplate this statistic for a moment or two.

For reference, Perth is a city of 2 million+.

The torrent of water currently rushing through the Fitzroy River is one of the highest flow rates ever seen in an Australian river.

It has astounded the Bureau of Meteorology, with Western Australia manager James Ashley estimating the flow rate to be about 60,000 cubic metres per second.

Ashley put that number into incredible context during a press conference in Perth on Wednesday afternoon

“The amount of water that is moving down the Fitzroy River in a day is about what Perth uses water-wise over 20 years,” he said.

“To put that in context it is probably one of the highest flow rates we’ve ever seen in Australian rivers.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/flooded ... 5caev.html

[rick]

Not done any real research, but when i see world weather on the TV the temperatures being reported in Australia over the last month or so seem to me to be rather low considering it is high summer there. When i was in the Northern Territories/ South Australia, this time of year often 40 Centigrade or higher - but reported temperatures are in the 30's. And, as said, reports generally of floods and then more floods. Rather different to a couple of years when it was all heatwaves and forest fires.

[Whistler]

Not done any real research, but when i see world weather on the TV the temperatures being reported in Australia over the last month or so seem to me to be rather low considering it is high summer there. When i was in the Northern Territories/ South Australia, this time of year often 40 Centigrade or higher - but reported temperatures are in the 30's. And, as said, reports generally of floods and then more floods. Rather different to a couple of years when it was all heatwaves and forest fires.

Sadly Rick, the increased rain will lead to more dangerous fires in the future.

The leaf litter in the forests has been continuously damp, which means that much-needed fuel reductions (controlled burns) can not be conducted. This leads to a build-up of all this fuel that is highly combustible when dry. When dry weather eventually occurs, the eucalypt tree shed leaves and small branches to conserve moisture, more fuel build up.

This cycle has always existed but with climate change each cycle gets more and more extreme. The frequency and ferocity of bush fires has been steadily growing over the past few decades, its only going to get worse.

[rick]

Yes, agree. Not just the fires are effected by these climatic wobbles. When i worked in the Northern territory one of our first issues was the Pelicans. In the 70's there were some wet years so the ephemeral lakes in central Australia filled up and the population boomed. They had just dried out again and the Pelicans needed a new home. The 2 acre billabong next to our mining camp had about 50 on it - and they were dying. Tests established it was starvation - they had eaten all the middle sized fish. This was confirmed by our fish surveys, all we could find were fish under about 3 cm or over 30 cm. As was only there for 15 months never really found out what the 'normal' fish population was like (and some species probably fished out). Pelicans had reduced to under 10. Environmental monitoring is useful but it takes years to get a proper picture.

[bluejets]

Well, there's floods at one end and fires at the other, at the same time.
So where does that leave the doomsday soothsayers..??

[tamada]

Well, there's floods at one end and fires at the other, at the same time.
So where does that leave the doomsday soothsayers..??

Needs a plague of locusts then the pestilence first, no?

With the Rock formerly known as Ayer's ready for the ark, the Aussies should get a better deal on livestock this time than roos, blue-ringed octopus, The Seekers and Paul bloody Hogan.

[Whistler]

Surprised, this article published within a day of my post, making almost exactly the same observation.

[https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2023 ... 020230107]

[noosard]

4th paragraph on that article is rubbish
reason being the western pacific must be cooling to finish the El Nina cycle

[Whistler]

I think you should contact them noo and explain to them that you know much more about meteorology than their scientists. Perhaps they should run any future reports past you before publication.

[noosard]

Whistle why dont you think about the cycles of the pacific ocean
Eastern pacific gets warmer causing El Nino so drier for Australia
Western side gets warmer causing El Nina so wetter for Australia
Not hard to understand

And which scientist wrote those first eight paragraphs

[Whistler]

I don't have an opinion or a detailed knowledge of the cycles, I leave that up to the experts.

[noosard]

This may help you, notice where the pretty reddish colours are during the differing phases

[jackspratt]

Source ....... context ........ relevance?

That would help.

[tamada]

Source ....... context ........ relevance?

That would help.

In a bun fight?

[noosard]

Source ....... context ........ relevance?

That would help.

Google is your friend

[Whistler]

Ok, now I see, it is simple atmospheric switch, not complex at all and highly predictable. You would think those asses at BOM would get it right. Nope, they have no idea.

Thanks noo.

[noosard]

Yeah a proper global sport

[Whistler]

Whistle why dont you think about the cycles of the pacific ocean
Eastern pacific gets warmer causing El Nino so drier for Australia
Western side gets warmer causing El Nina so wetter for Australia
Not hard to understand

And which scientist wrote those first eight paragraphs

I have sent off an email demanding his name and have suggested his pocket protector is confiscated.

[Whistler]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no- ... 5cdft.html

Noo must have had a chat with them

[noosard]

Seems SMH has done some homework