Is the South China Sea the Balkans of the 21st Century?

[jackspratt]

Much as the Balkan region was the flashpoint for conflict 100+ years ago, it seems the South China Sea is assuming more and more geopolitical importance as a potential point of conflict.

These 2 recent stories don't reflect well on the main 2 protagonists in the region. The first one is particularly concerning.

The Pentagon ran a secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic, an investigation finds

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US military launched a secret campaign to counter what it perceived as China's growing influence in the Philippines, a nation hit especially hard by the deadly virus......

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-15/ ... /103982430

And on the other side of the coin.

Philippines files claim with United Nations to an extended continental shelf in South China Sea

The Philippines has filed a claim with the United Nations (UN) to an extended continental shelf (ECS) in the South China Sea, a waterway where it has had increasingly confrontational maritime disputes with China.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 found China's sweeping claims have no legal basis, a ruling Beijing rejects.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-15/ ... /103983398

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Add Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei to the mix as they all claim ownership over the Spratley Islands. Taiwan, I think, is involved too. The U.S.A. as a 'protector' of the free world and its clients also has a role to play, and that means Russia and the Koreas notice what is going on as does Japan.

It's volatile like the Balkans too although you don't have bumbling, rickety empires like the Hapsburgs and Ottomans involved. '

There is potential for a lot of trouble in this area.

[tamada]

The main problem is a lack of unity between the six nations that have more legitimate claims to the waters of their territorial and economic zones.

For example, throughout his term, the former Philippine president Duterte constantly blew hot and cold on working with China, depending on his domestic political fortunes and plain bull-headedness. The same goes for Malaysia a few years back, where their national elections dictated that all candidates keep their tinder dry on challenging China's "9-dash line" claim, lest they lose the votes and support of potential coalition partners. Vietnam, ditto.

This plays directly into Beijing's insistence of negotiating individual deals with each nation: a divide and conquer strategy. China and Philippines signed an MoU on joint exploration, investment and development with Duterte's administration and then did nothing, not even pick up the phone. Thus the Philippines were hobbled on doing anything without "permission".

Marcos Jr. has been more ballsy. I am completing the supervision of the second of two seismic surveys that his government approved earlier this year. These are the first such activities in 10 years if you exclude the one in 2022 that had force majeure called on it after the Chinese openly stalked and harassed the pre-survey operations offshore Palawan.

Vietnam's next.

[Khun Paul]

In short the answer is NO , The two Balkan wars werfe nationalistic and loosely based on a peppering of religious intolerance .
Nationalities, fought to retain the identity, land etc.
THE South China Sea problem is a direct result of a Lger neighbour asserting control illegally over stated international waters by claiming wrongly certain areas are theirs by default .
UInl;ike the Balkan wars, as International waters are compromised it does impact on freedom of movement recognised and acceptable to most of the Nations of the world EXCEPT CHINA.
WHO HAVE ALSO IGNORED THE RULING BY THE UN OVER THESE WATERS.
Small note China is doing the same to Japan over contested islands., trying to keep and maintain an opening into to the oceans of the world.
The resultinbg fall-out over thge rhetoric and minor transgressions have been met so far with a limp wristed effort by ASEAN and the nations that are directly impacted,hoping possibly that China will misstep and the Major powers will intervene.

This play will take years to resolve China has a history of playing the LONG GAME, can ASEAN wait for it to play out or will it start to take less indirect action.

[tamada]

In short the answer is NO , The two Balkan wars werfe nationalistic and loosely based on a peppering of religious intolerance .
Nationalities, fought to retain the identity, land etc.
THE South China Sea problem is a direct result of a Lger neighbour asserting control illegally over stated international waters by claiming wrongly certain areas are theirs by default .
UInl;ike the Balkan wars, as International waters are compromised it does impact on freedom of movement recognised and acceptable to most of the Nations of the world EXCEPT CHINA.
WHO HAVE ALSO IGNORED THE RULING BY THE UN OVER THESE WATERS.
Small note China is doing the same to Japan over contested islands., trying to keep and maintain an opening into to the oceans of the world.
The resultinbg fall-out over thge rhetoric and minor transgressions have been met so far with a limp wristed effort by ASEAN and the nations that are directly impacted,hoping possibly that China will misstep and the Major powers will intervene.

This play will take years to resolve China has a history of playing the LONG GAME, can ASEAN wait for it to play out or will it start to take less indirect action.

ASEAN's membership mandate categorically states non-interference in a fellow member state's politics. If Malaysia (for example) chooses to get into bed with Xi, the other member nations cannot say or do anything about it. Thus, the CCP looks at ASEAN and laughs.

The only upside is Thailand, as an ASEAN member, is geographically challenged with regard to the South China Sea. Not only do they not have a dog in this fight, they don't even have a dog. Otherwise, they would have sold their offshore farm to Xi ages ago

[FrazeeDK]

in conravention of the UNCLOS China built up a number of coral reefs into military bases. Everyone in the region sat back and other than the usual diplomatic protests didn't do much of anything. Now China has the abiity to deploy aircraft and ships with air defense and anti-ship defense provided by those island bases. They ignored the UN arbitration telling them to leave Philippine waters and pretty much do as they please.. Now, the Indonesians have pushed back somewhat, particularly on violation of their EEZ by Chinese fishing fleets. The Indos have apprehended, confiscated and burned a number of those ships...