Baht What up with Dat?????

[banpaeng]

Might be a rat I agree, but as for the Baht/Dollar, I think it is the US Treasury printing to much money. Now it seems the US will only print more money.

I did not catch the congressman's name (wish I did) which ask an intelligent question in my opinion. How do you get out of debt by issuing more debt? That actually makes sense to me and could not believe it came out of a politicos mouth. Guess that proves they can say something right every once in a while.

[aznyron]

banp it seems strange that even the GBP has gotten weaker against the thai baht if it was only the USD maybe I could buy your argument but it seems to be across the board so I am assuming that thai people are buying foreign money while there baht is still inflated I refuse to use the word strong since I never believed it was strong and that would be the only reason why I think the baht gained in value but I am open to correction since I never made any claims of being knowledgeable in economics

[Kaiheitai]

I suspect "news buying" based on the temporary end to the crisis... but medium term I would say the PAD induced recession will push it towards 40 again....there are going to be a lot fewer tourists needing Thai baht if arrivals next year are down 50% like they're saying. Supply and demand.

[aznyron]

we have not heard from GIT any good news ? Kal what is your opinion ? I like to hear other point of view
this way I have a better idea

[Kaiheitai]

BoT proposes 3 interest cut options

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is set to propose three options for a policy interest rate cut to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for consideration at its meeting Wednesday, according to a source at the central bank.

The options are to reduce the key short-term interest rate by 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 per cent. Imposition of the differing rates will have a different effect on the Thai economy.

The MPC is likely to cut the policy interest rate continuously to signal that Thailand's interest rate is already on a downward trend.

The central bank is ready to count on the monetary policy to stimulate economic growth in the next period.

At the same time, economic data for the third quarter of this year, in general, and October, in particular, which showed that the economy plunged more than expected earlier, will be raised for discussion at the MPC meeting.

The central bank will take this opportunity to propose to the MPC that it is considering cutting the country's economic growth estimates both for this year and next year.

BoT Governor Tarisa Watanagase will present a target range for the inflation rate to 0.5-3.0 per cent from 0-3.5 because the Finance Ministry does not want deflation to occur and to see inflation move into negative territory next year. (TNA)

This should help. I've been busy with school lately so I'm not sure on the dollar fundementals although the recession confirmation really wrecked havoc on equities... well the baht looks weak, the dollar has some weakness also but I'd say Thailand is certainly not a safe haven currency unlike the $ yen or euro, thats for sure. That with what I said above I think baht is down medium term

[RALPHCUSENS]

The BOT today cut Thai interest rates by a full % point, hopefully, this will weaken the Baht, and we may see the exchange rates improving =D> =D> =D> =D>

[mortiboy]

"The BOT today cut Thai interest rates by a full % point,"
% ! MY LOO?????????

[aznyron]

amazing only thailand baht get stronger when % rates are cut all other currency get weaker
now I ask my expat friends do you really buy this B/S ? I will tell you I don't I am no fool
I don't know how they do it but I bet some wealthy people are getting richer in BKK
and the poor working class are losing there jobs but then again wealthy people never gave a dam for the working poor they just exploit them more

[lepidoptra]

Well, all hope of a weaker baht seems to be diminishing. Like many others who thought the rate cut would enable us to recoup some of our losses it has not happened, in fact 2 days age the baht was 2 points weaker.
I think what we need to do in Europe is protest against all governments, take over the airports,cause complete chaos. ruin the countries economy and bring the countries to their knees.
The UK pound and Euro will bounce back and be the strongest countries of all.

[Kaiheitai]

I think looking at just short term movements is of no help... medium term fundamentals point to a weaker baht, technical analysis shows a fairly solid downward trend. Don't get whipsawed by daily or hourly movements. Actually my technical view is that it is at the top of the channel resistance (resistance @ 36) so either it will consolidate and try to break out or it will bounce back down to the bottom of the channel ($/34.6) RSI seems to have hit over sold for a few days and went below and is rising again, some negative divergence on the MACD but not huge, 100 and 50 day moving averages have provided decent support since at leat April and are trending upwards w/ no negative cross overs (I'm on daily charts that only go back one year though...)

So anybody get that voodoo magic reading?

If you are really interested in currencies I suggest OANDA, they have FX game so at least you can check out the charting software for free... I have a small ($200) account and do trading, usually without accessing the 50:1 available leverage, basically playing for dimes and quaters but I am up $6 or 3% of my account since August during a time when equities have shed 40% :-" so ---- you hedge fund managers

Just interested, anybody else into technical analysis ?

Disclosure: I'm just a grad student who really doesn't know that much about international finance, just my views

[lepidoptra]

Unfortunately the Thai immigration do not share your views. If us long stay guests in this country do not show that at least 6500 baht (single person) is paid into a Thai Bank each month then we lose the privilege of our visa renewal. Maybe I should ask them not to take a short view of things and assure them at some time I will be able to fulfill the requirements. Apart from putting 800000 baht in a Thai bank have you any other suggestions. I am not a graduate in anything but have worked hard for my pension to enable me to stay here.

[lepidoptra]

sorry should read 65000 baht not 6500

[aznyron]

well what the latest news on the baht ? I see it got a little stronger Monday morning to 35.25
I guess they fear the 36 number so they are trying to keep it down JMO well when it hit 36 I will be looking for 37 until it hit 39 & 40 then I will say it in line with other currencies Now I do want to emphasize I said in line not that I think it worth 39 or 40 I suspect the baht to be worth around 42 to 45
with all the B/S that happened here in the last two years but I am no economist just a dreamer

[aznyron]

now it 35.04 it seem the only currency that gained on the bot was the euro I must confess I am a complete dummy when it comes to this but even my ignorance tells me some thing is fishy

[UdonExpat]

lep, I think you have more options than bringing 65,000 a month. So, you don't have to be at the mercy of the exchange rates if your retirement income is fluctuating around that amount.

On my recent extension they simply added up all my transfers and divided by the number of months. The average was what they used to determine how much I had been transferring. Mine was a marriage extension and I've spoken with others on retired extensions where the same method was used. So, transfer large amounts when the rates are to your advantage and forgo transfers when not.

You can also keep some money in a local bank to cushion the exchange rate. If you have 240,000 in a bank account that amounts to 20,000 a month in income. So, you'd only need to show monthly averages of 45,000. Don't forget the bank deposit must be there for at least 3 months prior to the extension request.

Hope this helps you find it easier to negotiate your extensions.

Seems the BOT has been doing a pretty good job of keeping the baht around 35 for the past months. It's good to have some stability in the rate. Although a cheaper baht might help exports and stimulate the economy a bit and put some baht in my pocket. Ron would like it, too.

[lepidoptra]

Udon Expat
I see what you're saying but only applies if you already have enough money in Thailand that you don't need to transfer the money each month.
Many of us from the UK do rely on our pension as our total income.
If we do not transfer the necessary 65 or 40000 each month then how do you suggest we pay for our food,telephone,UBC.electric and oh! I nearly forgot the food bills.
Try telling my wife she can't have her Christmas party until the baht weakens
Regards

[bumper]

Well you can no just look at one day, it won't move like that unless it really crashes. Not what I want to see I guess the bet AtM transfer in at least year today 35.47. It didn't drop in one day or one week for dollar holders I don't expect major overnight changes.

Everyhting that I have seen leans to a slow dpreciation of the baht. Hey the opened the airport and everyone go happy. We still have to see if they can find a way to haev a stable government that question remains unanswered.

We still have not seen the real effects of the real economy slow dowmn. Wait and see. Ain't over yet.

[lepidoptra]

yes Git
I think our American friends are fortunate that the baht against the dollar has remained pretty stable over the past year. Not like our UK pound which has fallen about 30% against the baht. I'll just have to get used to eating Thai food and forgo my weetabix in the morning
Cheers

[BKKSTAN]

You Brits and Aussies just had some catching up to do.We went from 41+ to 29+ and just recently climbed to 35+!My last money transfers were made and 31 and then at 33!

[jackspratt]

Unfortunately the Thai immigration do not share your views. If us long stay guests in this country do not show that at least 6500 baht (single person) is paid into a Thai Bank each month then we lose the privilege of our visa renewal. Maybe I should ask them not to take a short view of things and assure them at some time I will be able to fulfill the requirements. Apart from putting 800000 baht in a Thai bank have you any other suggestions. I am not a graduate in anything but have worked hard for my pension to enable me to stay here.

There is no requirement (under Immigration laws) if you are on a "retirement" visa to transfer any money into Thailand if you are using the 65,000 per month method.

The only requirement is to be able to demonstrate 65k income, not the transfer of such. Of course Immigration would be entitled to request you demonstrate that you are bringing enough in to be able to live, but it is not up to them to determine how much that is.