Baht What up with Dat?????

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Post by Bump » July 12, 2007, 9:00 am

SCB 33.20 at the moment, definetly going up, really not looking forward to bringing money in next month.



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Post by JimboPSM » July 12, 2007, 9:17 am

Frankie 1 wrote:One good reason to have your money in a Thai bank.
Up to 7.6% "interest rate" since January.
Could you clarify that please? It's much better than anything I've found, a little more information would be useful, such as:
  • Which bank?
    Which currency?
    What kind of deposit terms (e.g. 12 months).

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Post by Frankie 1 » July 12, 2007, 9:23 am

Could you clarify that please? It's much better than anything I've found
From your own posting:
From 1st January 2007 to 11th July 2007:


USD/THB

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Post by Frankie 1 » July 12, 2007, 9:35 am

one and a half years ago:

10,000 Euro was worth 500,000 Bath

now

10,000 Euro is worth 450,000 Bath

So if I had put my money in a Thai bank one and a half years ago, my money would be worth 10% more compared to keeping my money in a European bank.
I think that no bank interest rate can compare with that.

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Post by tawan3 » July 12, 2007, 10:08 am

You can spend half a day reading about closing companies lost jobs the condition of the local economy. You are right does not affect the investors but hurting most Thai people.

I also had hope Thailand had learned a lot from 1997 but everytime the BoT puppet speaks you feel like getting the frying pan out again the uppperclass still thinks Thai people are too stupid to vote for themselves or to think for themselves.

The biggest problem for Thai people right now is political everyone still waiting to see which sector will fill Mr. T's vacuum so thst they can get on with their lives.

The investors will be ok for sure the big question is which sector to follow. Amazing how so little the policy makers pay attention to the domestic Thai economy. If in America people were losing their jobs and companies closing at such a fast rate it would be frontpage news and congressional committees formed but not in Thailand.

To be fair in the past Thais sit on the sidelines waiting for direction. Time to wake up and move because the policy makers unless you are the lucky 2% do not care what happens to you. :(

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Post by Bandung_Dero » July 12, 2007, 10:10 am

ray23 wrote:SCB 33.20 at the moment, definetly going up, really not looking forward to bringing money in next month.
That it isn't - your quoting the onshore rate (Telexed USD from the USA) 1st July it was 34.45 1st of June it was 34 52 - Want more? Your doing your arse.

Edit:I might add the Offshore rate for:-
June 1st 32.94
July 1st 31.57
This Morning 30.66

Edit again: Sorry Ray missread your text and missed the "NOT" Still doing your ares though![/b]

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Post by tawan3 » July 12, 2007, 11:01 am

Guess which direction the Baht would go in this case.

By Sanitsuda Ekachai, Assistant Editor, Bangkok Post.
Email: sanitsudae@bangkokpost.co.th
Is the dark age when our country was under the military's thumb soon returning? You bet.

The draft constitution is complete. The referendum is around the corner. And if we say yes to it, the general election will restore our parliamentary democracy, the military will return to the barracks and we can all heave a big sigh of relief. If that is what you believe, WAKE UP!

There are plenty of alarming signs that the military is determined to stay put as a defining political force, with or without the ballot-box rituals.

It is also ready to play the carrot-and-stick game to bring the rebellious to submission.

Last Friday, an outspoken activist was taken into custody by the military for publicly criticising the coup-makers and encouraging people to say no to the draft charter.

During detention, he was psychologically threatened and denied contact with his lawyer and family members, a basic legal right that even accused criminals are entitled to.

The investigating soldiers accused him of being part of the pro-Thaksin movement. He denied it. They asked him to stop denouncing their bosses. He refused.

His release 24 hours later came after intense lobbying from rights activists who had access to the military bosses. And probably because the men in green suddenly became fearful that their attempt to teach a loud activist a lesson might snowball and explode in their faces.

If what happened to Sombat Boonngarm-anong is the military's warning to urban political activists, the same stern message has reached the grassroots movements in the countryside.

It hit hard on the anti-Pak Moon dam villagers, a strong grassroots movement in the Northeast.

Although the Pak Moon fisherfolk have insisted they are no fans of Thaksin Shinawatra, the military views anyone critical of the coup-makers and coup-installed government as Mr Thaksin's sympathisers.

That was probably why the annual opening of the dam's sluice gates which was scheduled in May was delayed.

When the Pak Moon fisherfolk protested, and when the Surayud government agreed to respect the schedule, military activities at Pak Moon were in full swing to mobilise counter-groups to stop the move.

As if to take up the cue, the Surayud government made a quick U-turn by declaring a permanent closure of the dam's water gates.

"The message is clear," said one village leader. "There are effectively two governments at work. And we now know which one is the more powerful."

Enter Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.

He granted the Pak Moon leaders a meeting to explain to him how the dam is killing the entire Moon river and the fisherfolk's "por piang" livelihood.

Had he been able to keep his promise to fix the problem at the Tuesday cabinet meeting, the patron-client game of reciprocity would have required the Pak Moon folk to return the favour, if or when Gen Sonthi decided to enter politics.

That he failed to keep his word suggests that the military, like all previous civilian governments, eventually decided to opt for the powerful Egat, the country's electricity generating agency, over the locals' livelihood. Either that, or else the military is simply ridden with too many factions to give the general the final say.

Whichever it is, it reconfirms the villagers' long-held belief that change can come only through their own sweat, blood and tears.

Last Friday, activist Sombat got a shake-up from the military.

On Tuesday, the Pak Moon folk were betrayed.

Tomorrow it might be you, your friends, your relatives.

And if you do not have friends with some useful connections to come to your rescue, tough luck.

No use talking about the rule of law. Or democracy. For in the pipeline is the National Security Bill which will allow the military to expand martial law to cover the whole country.

Is the dark age when our country was under the military's thumb soon returning?

You bet.

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Post by tawan3 » July 12, 2007, 11:38 am

Well at least the BoT did a better job at explaining today.

Exporters warned against speculation

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

The baht continued to appreciate yesterday on the back of capital inflows into the stock market even as the central bank yesterday warned local banks and exporters against currency speculation. The baht traded as high as 33.18 to the US dollar before closing at 33.32, compared with Tuesday's close of 33.45.

Tarisa Watanagase, the Bank of Thailand's governor, said the baht continued to strengthen on foreign equity inflows, but dollar sales by exporters had eased.

While authorities were ready to intervene in the currency markets to smooth volatility, the central bank could only have a limited impact on the market considering the size of capital flows relative to the country's foreign reserves.

''There is a huge supply of liquidity in the global market. If we are to counter its force, we must have lots of cards up our sleeves. And if we fix the baht to a certain level, we are not going to make it. The scenario is similar to 10 years ago,'' Dr Tarisa said.

Exporters and local manufacturers have become increasingly vocal in their appeals to the central bank to help restrain the baht, which has climbed 6% against the dollar this year.

Dr Tarisa said the central bank took into account the country's import needs and foreign-currency debt in managing currency rates. ''The central bank stands in the middle, and we need to look at the complete picture,'' she said.

''There is no merit in keeping baht weak. Say we used to exchange one [imported] cell phone for one cart of rice. A weak baht means we will now need one and a half carts. In the long term, this does not bode well.''

Exporters should take advantage of the stronger baht and low interest rates to upgrade their technology, Dr Tarisa said, particularly as Thailand has lost competitiveness in terms of labour costs to China and Vietnam.

Dr Tarisa said the baht could weaken in the second half of the year due to slowing exports and a rise in imports, although there remained a risk of capital inflows as investors shifted out of dollar-denominated assets.


The baht has strengthened this year thanks to high current-account surpluses and heavy capital inflows into the local stock market, which has risen some 20% over the past month due largely to heavy foreign buying.

Meanwhile, the central bank yesterday directed commercial banks to review underlying transactions of exporters seeking to purchase hedging contracts to help curb speculation against the baht.

Regulators also stressed that exporters needed to offer proper reasons if they failed to deliver foreign currency to settle the hedging contracts.

Anticipation among exporters of a stronger baht had led to accelerated dollar sales, adding further pressure on the currency, the central bank said in an email to local banks.

''It is acceptable that exporters hasten to sell [foreign currencies]. But some transactions might lack proper underlying transactions. We have asked commercial banks to look at the issue,'' said Suchart Sakkankosone, director for the exchange control and credit department.

He said the request reinforced an existing rule introduced in 2005.

Dealers yesterday said the directive to local banks and central bank intervention in the market had caused the unit to swing sharply yesterday.

One dealer at a local bank said exporters' dollar sales eased but that the baht continued to strengthen on portfolio inflows. ''The central bank has intervened quite a lot, otherwise the baht would have appreciated much more than we have already seen. The situation we have here is that the market is flooded with demand for baht as a result of the inflows, while demand for dollars for imports has been much less,'' the dealer said.

Commercial banks have also sold dollars to square positions in the market.

''Frankly, we can't blame exporters or the banks if they want to sell [dollars]. Capital inflows are expected to continue for the near future,'' the dealer said.


The Finance Ministry will also encourage local institutional investors to invest overseas to help weaken the baht.

The start of the government's new mass-transit projects in Bangkok would also help by increasing imports, said Pannee Sathavarodom, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.

The cabinet has already approved in principle the construction of the new Red and Purple Lines, two new light-rail projects that will complement the existing Bangkok subway and Skytrain systems.

Negotiations are underway on financing plans for the two projects, which are to start construction later this year.

''The central bank has independence in setting monetary and foreign exchange policies. But the ministry has been trying to improve co-ordination with regards to the problems of foreign exchange,'' Mrs Pannee said.


A stock market driven by foreign inflows would lift investment and import demand later in the year, she said.

''We expect better performances for listed companies in the second half, helping boost tax revenues,'' she said.

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Post by Bump » July 12, 2007, 12:44 pm

Bandung_Dero wrote:
ray23 wrote:SCB 33.20 at the moment, definetly going up, really not looking forward to bringing money in next month.
That it isn't - your quoting the onshore rate (Telexed USD from the USA) 1st July it was 34.45 1st of June it was 34 52 - Want more? Your doing your arse.

Edit:I might add the Offshore rate for:-
June 1st 32.94
July 1st 31.57
This Morning 30.66

Edit again: Sorry Ray missread your text and missed the "NOT" Still doing your ares though![/b]
Sorry really don't undersatnd this one, of course I look at the onshore rate I live in Thailand.

"Still doing your ares", sorry don't understand

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Post by Bump » July 12, 2007, 2:51 pm

TCC: strong baht will claim more victims
Thai Chamber of Commerce Chairman Pramon Suthivongse admitted that the strong baht has affected exporters and more small factories will be shut down.


He noted that he did not know why Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Co Ltd was closed, but believed that the Thai baht is just one of the factors as the company could have shouldered financial problems. Still, he said the strong baht has raised the losses for exporters especially those in the textiles industry.


"More small factories would be shut down as when the baht is about 10 per cent more expensive than neighbouring countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, exporters can't compete with them," he noted.


On July 16, the TCC will seek a meeting with Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet, to ask if there will be any remedial measures. He also noted that the private sector could need to raise their product prices and consequently see their shares in the export markets slashed. Meanwhile, exporters could need to replace machinery to reduce production costs, and the government can help through a cut in machinery import tariffs.


On the Bank of Thailand's saying that exporters' sale of US dollar spurred the baht appreciation, he admitted that such behaviour really exists.


"But it should help alleviate the situation if the Bank of Thailand allows exporters to hold on their foreign exchange income for more than 15 days (before they are required to convert the income into Thai baht)," he said.


- The Nation

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Post by Golfer-to-be » July 12, 2007, 5:17 pm

This coin has many sides.

Let also me give you my two cents worth,as I the last year have invested quite heavily in the Thai stock market as part of my developing markets portfolio.

My stocks in Siam Commercial Bk, Kasikorn Bk, BKK Bk, Thai Oil and PTT have since 01 Jan increased with 39% in USD and more than 30% in THB .

While I understand that there too many good reasons not to bring all your funds into Thailand if you live in the Kingdom, the game is totally different if you live outside and just play by the rules.

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Post by Bump » July 12, 2007, 6:50 pm

Well I understand your point I can assure that for the majority of us who live here and intend on doing so for the long term this is no game. There are long term residents here that will be hard pressed to meet the visa requirments, simply as they as they retired 20 year ago or more. Have homes here, have families here. This will hurt them if it continues. Some of these people are approaching thier 80's, long past thier productive work years.

I see no problem with long term investors in Thailand, but you know as well as I do that is not waht is the driving force behind this. You live ourtside the country and it's sound like your active in finacne. So it starts to go bad you can pick up your marbles and find a new game, Not so for the people who live here. You are right that is very much a different side of the coin.

None of this makes you a bad guy or a good guy, just a person in a different aspect of life.

In watching the news tonihgt, the facotory that closed will be opened tomorrow. The owner had went to the bank to try to get additional loans to carry the business. They refused him as the business after 27 years in existence was carrying a debt load of one billion baht. After seeing the factory closed the bank has agreed to additional funsd fro the business. Good bad I don't know. Has that bank just given out a loan with very little hope of it being paid? I don't know things, are very different here. Certainly doesn't sound a like a good business decesion. Obvously based on emotion not business logic. But that is thailand

That has provided some instant satisfaction, but what are the long term effects. How many of these loans, will be given out. There are a lot of if's here not really based on normal game rules.

There were many factors in the 97 crash. But if I were only looking at my benefit nothing could be better for me.

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Post by Bump » July 12, 2007, 10:11 pm

The other culprit, Weak dollar having an opposite effect in the states:
U.S. Economy: Exports Rise to Record; Oil Costs Widen Trade Gap

By Bob Willis

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. exports rose to a record in May, while a jump in imported-oil costs widened the trade deficit.

The deficit expanded 2.3 percent from the prior month to $60 billion, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Exports climbed 2.2 percent, prompting some economists to raise their forecasts for economic growth.

The price of crude oil has climbed 20 percent this year, just as the dollar's decline and stronger economies abroad lift demand for American-made goods. Exports are contributing to a rebound in manufacturing that's helping the economy to shake off the slowest growth in more than four years.

``All of the deterioration in the deficit was due to higher oil prices,'' said Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York. ``Exports bounced up quite nicely, and it means trade will probably contribute to second- quarter growth.''

Morris, who correctly forecast the deficit, lifted his estimate for growth in the second quarter to 3.3 percent after the report, up from 3 percent. The expansion was 0.7 percent in January to March.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed first- time claims for jobless benefits fell more than forecast last week to the lowest in almost two months. Claims decreased by 12,000 to 308,000 in the week that ended July 7. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 317,750 from 319,250.

``We have modest employment growth and it's enough to support wages,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

Matching Forecasts

The trade deficit matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from deficits of $58 billion to $64.6 billion. April's gap was revised higher from a previously reported $58.5 billion.

In May, exports totaled $132 billion, as sales of civilian aircraft and electrical equipment gained. Imports rose 2.3 percent to $192.1 billion, also the highest ever. The shortfall with China increased to the biggest since January.

Imports of industrial supplies, which include crude oil, jumped by $2.4 billion to $52.6 billion, reflecting record purchases from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The U.S. imports about two-thirds of the oil it consumes.

Growing economies abroad are helping boost demand for American products. The economy in the 13 countries that use the euro grew 3 percent in the year to March, compared with U.S. growth of 1.9 percent. China expanded 11 percent over the 12- month period, Japan grew 2.6 percent and South Korea 4 percent.

Weaker Dollar

A weaker dollar, which makes American goods cheaper for foreign buyers, together with faster growth abroad, is a boon to manufacturers. The dollar has weakened 7.7 percent since the beginning of 2006 against a basket of currencies from major trading partners, according to Federal Reserve figures.

The dollar fell to a record $1.3798 against the euro earlier today, and traded at $1.3761 at 9:04 a.m. in New York.

Manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace in 14 months, according to a report this month from the Tempe, Arizona-based, Institute for Supply Management. The group's export index in May rose to the highest level since December 2004.

Boeing Co., the world's second-biggest airplane maker, delivered 23 aircraft to foreign buyers in May, the most since November, the Chicago-based company said. A surge in demand from Asian carriers is one reason for the pickup.

Demand From Asia

``Clearly, we've been led out of this recession into these good times by the Asian airlines,'' Boeing's commercial airplanes marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth said in an interview last month from the Paris Air Show.

After eliminating the influence of prices on the trade figures, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the U.S. trade deficit was little changed in May at $55.2 billion. In the first two months of last quarter, the average gap is down $2.5 billion from the previous three months.

The improvement in the trade deficit is one reason economists project economic growth accelerated to a 3 percent pace in the second quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.

Imports from China have contributed to keeping the trade deficit elevated. The trade gap with China widened to $20 billion in May from $19.4 billion the prior month.

China's Surplus

The gap may have widened even more last month. The Chinese government this week reported its trade surplus soared to a record $26.9 billion in June and its gap with the U.S., at $14.1 billion, accounted for more than half the total.

Some U.S. lawmakers and manufacturers contend China has kept its currency artificially low in order to stimulate demand. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said June 20 he would look for ways to be ``more creative'' in pressing China to allow its currency to strengthen.

``I share your frustration on the pace of change in China,'' he told U.S. lawmakers.

Still, he declined to label China a currency manipulator, as some congressmen had urged. U.S. lawmakers have said China's currency, the yuan, is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

Japan is also benefiting from increasing U.S. demand for more energy-efficient automobiles, such as Toyota Motor Corp.'s Prius, as gasoline prices hover near records.

Toyota last month sold a record number of cars and trucks in the U.S., only 200 fewer than Ford Motor Co., the No.2 American carmaker. The Prius accounted for about 15 percent of all autos Toyota exported to the U.S. in the first six months of 2006.

A narrower deficit will contribute 0.4 percentage point to second-quarter economic growth, according to a forecast by economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. Trade subtracted 0.8 percentage point from growth in the first quarter.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 12, 2007 10:55 EDT

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Post by tawan3 » July 12, 2007, 10:49 pm

the yuan, is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.
Good number to remember. One good news China will have a record level of IPO's issued on the Shanghai Exchange maybe will take some of the hot money.

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Post by tawan3 » July 12, 2007, 11:42 pm

Democrats confident in Thai economy as proven in the following article. :fryingpan:

Democrats confident of economy


(BangkokPost.com) - Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejajjiva said on Thursday he doesn't fear a replay of the 1997 economic crisis because of the strengthening of the baht.

The Democrat party leader stated that factors which caused the 1997 economic collapse differ from today's circumstances, which are giving some analysts the jitters.

Abhisit believes it is the Bank of Thailand's job to ensure that the baht's movement does not become too dramatic to the point that it causes major concern.

"What is important right now is for businesses to maintain a competitive edge," he said.



GREAT ADVICE, I AM LOSTED. :Huh:

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Post by Bump » July 13, 2007, 7:19 am

Correction, Maybe :? :? :? :lol: This article indicates it wasnt the bank that bailed them out, I would rather believe this one, but who knows.

[quote]
Garment factory cancels mass layoff, reopens
SAMUT PRAKAN, July 12 (TNA)

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Post by tawan3 » July 13, 2007, 7:41 am

Yes, maybe who knows :? Do Associations usually have money for financial bailouts? :?

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Post by Bump » July 13, 2007, 7:44 am

Well in this case if it does, it must be massive again me and my math 950K a day ain't chump change. Maybe the government ordered unifroms, they need to spend some money anyway.

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Post by tawan3 » July 13, 2007, 8:00 am

:lol: Chump change :lol: I like that. Was it not like 600 million baht they owed? I am not sure every story different. :? Has anybody read why the government is so slow in spending to stimulate the local economy I have not even read very much on domestic economic policy is this not a major part of a stable currency. :?

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Post by Bump » July 13, 2007, 8:03 am

Ya in the the news conference on TV one billion baht was mentioned. Who knows.

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