Baht What up with Dat?????
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JimboPSM
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You do yourself an injustice Stan, you and others are picking up on how the system works, most of it is not rocket science, it's common sense.BKKSTAN wrote:So if I have been reading you right, this would favor a weakening of the baht
I appreciate your seemingly expertise ,as I don't have a ''clue''
You are right that this should "weaken" the baht
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JimboPSM
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An interesting intra-day chart today for GBP/USD showing how quickly currencies can move - in the space of two hours this afternoon the pound fell by over 0.5% and two and a half hours later it had risen back.
My understanding is that the movement is almost wholly due to a switch in sentiment about US interest rates following the issue of the minutes of the last Fed meeting this afternoon which were less hawkish than anticipated.
For technically minded folk it is also a good example of an inverted head and shoulders chart.
Here is basically same chart but as USD/GBP, this shows it as a more easily recognisable head and shoulders chart.
Images from BBC Business News
My understanding is that the movement is almost wholly due to a switch in sentiment about US interest rates following the issue of the minutes of the last Fed meeting this afternoon which were less hawkish than anticipated.
For technically minded folk it is also a good example of an inverted head and shoulders chart.
Here is basically same chart but as USD/GBP, this shows it as a more easily recognisable head and shoulders chart.
Images from BBC Business News
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JimboPSM
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In general terms you would be correct if you are looking at a "growth business" in the stock markets; currencies don't seem to operate under quite the same rules.BKKSTAN wrote:Let me see,doesn't a head & shoulder pattern signal a pending break out to the upside?
I've just taken a look at my currency charts and the dollar has been operating on a break to the downside on every major head and shoulder since spring of 2001, coincidentally (?) this was about the time that the government deficit funding was starting and has just been getting bigger.
There is another hobby horse of mine that may impact on all of this - I believe that wealth creation essentially comes from manufacturing and that we are now really beginning to be hit by all those manufacturing jobs that big business exported from the west (USA & Europe) to Asia in the nineties to make bigger profits.
Little (if any) thought was given as to what the longer term impact would be as the prices of those products, which are manufactured at much lower costs, are inevitably driven down by competition reducing "unit" western profit margins.
JimboPSM wrote:In general terms you would be correct if you are looking at a "growth business" in the stock markets; currencies don't seem to operate under quite the same rules.BKKSTAN wrote:Let me see,doesn't a head & shoulder pattern signal a pending break out to the upside?
I've just taken a look at my currency charts and the dollar has been operating on a break to the downside on every major head and shoulder since spring of 2001, coincidentally (?) this was about the time that the government deficit funding was starting and has just been getting bigger.
There is another hobby horse of mine that may impact on all of this - I believe that wealth creation essentially comes from manufacturing and that we are now really beginning to be hit by all those manufacturing jobs that big business exported from the west (USA & Europe) to Asia in the nineties to make bigger profits.
Little (if any) thought was given as to what the longer term impact would be as the prices of those products, which are manufactured at much lower costs, are inevitably driven down by competition reducing "unit" western profit margins.
Then it would seem that a head and shoulders pattern in currency would signify a break to the downside!5+ years of a constant pattern is the kind of risks I would be willing to take in speculating on anything Since taking a hit on trying to trade stocks by placing orders through brokers,my wife doesn't look to favorably about me speculating with her ''future''resources.I concur,she is set now,why risk anymore!
It took me a big loss investment initially,with almost a 4 year recovery,to finally daytrade stocks profitably!After retiring to Thailand,I tried to trade ,but without direct electronic ordering,I took to many ''hits''from brokers and dropped a fast 5 M baht.That was my maximum risk capital,so I pulled up!To late in the game ,to gamble!
If I had some risk caital,I would seriously look at that currency charting pattern as a reasonable risk play
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valentine
valentine wrote:You actually gambled and lost 5mill baht. Why some guys on here actually worry about putting a 1mill baht house in their wifes name.Small change in comparison.
Everybody has a different situation,this was available funds to risk!I don't have the same concerns that many guys have about my wife.We had discussions and agreements prior to our legal marriage 
Happily ,everything has worked out as agreed on both our parts.We are rapidly approaching 6 years of legal marriage.Absolute honesty,no face saving answers,lots of hurt feelings have built the full understanding of each other and the resultant'' trust'',IMO,the vital element necessary to our relationship.My wife's future is secure to meet a standard of living highly elevated from her humble uneducated background.We could walk away from each other,if one of us chose,without either suffering financially,barring unforseen extreme catastrophies As most daytraders are pure gamblers,I will concede the fact that the 5 Mil was indeed gambled away as I was trying to overcome a key missing element
Initially,after finishing ''day trading'' school,I was losing $350,000 within 6 months of ''graduating'' 
It all changed around to profit when I threw out the technical charting techniques learned at school,found my own research ''keys'',became professional about my trading habits.Basically,not to trade when emotionally or physically out of balance(high or low emotions and /or physically ailing),be willing to take many small losses only(if the stock doesn't react in the manner you expected,sell quickly avoiding ALL large losses),have a strategy involving profit in mind initially and start taking some profits,but allow the winning trend to continue to a settling point.Stick 100% to my research keys basically geared to the first 1-2 hours of the market.No gambling,wishful thinking,or tips from others There are other considerations that are inherent to one's experience,but the above were basic.I have only met 3 other successful daytraders in my life!They said the first day of school,''80% of you will go broke''.IMO,That might have been a low figure
Hope the gov't intervenes for my selfish reasons 
Central Bank says baht too strong
Bank of Thailand acting governor Dr Thalisa Watanakes said baht is now "a little bit too strong" at the rate of Bt37.11 per a US dollar.
The baht rose to Bt37.11 per US dollar in the morning trade, the strongest level in six years.
She said the baht became stronger mainly because of inflow capitals to the stock market.
Thalisa declined to commit herself whether the central bank would intervene to soften baht.
The Nation
Abandon ship me hearties!!! 
once the yuan appreciates in 07 and drags regional currencies with it, yer all doomed.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 719467.htm
yep, the decline of the US$ is a long drawn out affair. but permanent. buy gold. (and another Guinness)
cheers.
once the yuan appreciates in 07 and drags regional currencies with it, yer all doomed.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 719467.htm
yep, the decline of the US$ is a long drawn out affair. but permanent. buy gold. (and another Guinness)
cheers.
and anotherie from the Sovereign Society
Hoisington Investment Management, an institutional bond manager who has an excellent forecasting record, sees the housing bust getting worse, and it is a key factor in their view the U.S. will either a) enter recession or, b) at best, experience much slower growth in 2007.
But optimism rings from a familiar voice. In a speech given last Thursday, former Fed Chairman Greenspan weighed in on the housing question, suggesting the economy is in decent shape. He says that: "Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us. The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter." (yeah, right!!)
So What the Heck Does This Mean for the Greenback?
The market is taking Friday's economic news as a negative for the dollar. But, until we find out who's right on housing, it's a tough call. Is this the beginning of a trend, or just another short-term reaction?
see other currencies soar against the greenback
My gut says that we will see a downward correction in the dollar over the next couple of weeks. Particularly if last week's data confirms more U.S. economic weakness ahead, and if this Friday's release of the U.S. jobs report for October comes in lower than expected. If that happens, we will see other countries soar against the Greenback
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Prenders88
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CURRENCY
All calm as baht nears 8-year high
Exports should be only 'slightly affected'
The baht climbed close to an eight-year high yesterday, but the government's financial chief saw little to fear in regard to Thailand's competitiveness.
"The strong baht will slightly affect exports, but there is still no concern. I believe exports will continue to grow as they have done so far. Currency appreciation has been common in the region," Finance Minister and Deputy Premier MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said.
The baht opened at 36.50/36.52 to the US dollar before climbing to the day's peak of 36.38, a level unseen for almost eight years. It closed at 36.40/36.42, breaking the key resistance level of 36.50.
Investors have sold the dollar in offshore markets after several countries said they would diversify their international reserves rather than hold mainly greenbacks.
Dealers said the baht would edge up almost every day and likely pass Bt36 by year's end.
Pridiyathorn said it was not that the baht was that strong, but rather that the dollar had weakened. The central bank has already taken good care of the baht's value, he said.
Exports will expand 11-12 per cent in value next year, he said.
Kirida Bhaopichitr, an economist in the World Bank's office in Bangkok, said the baht would appreciate further next year by 1-1.50.
Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), believes the baht will top 36 this year and continue upwards until the middle of next year.
All calm as baht nears 8-year high
Exports should be only 'slightly affected'
The baht climbed close to an eight-year high yesterday, but the government's financial chief saw little to fear in regard to Thailand's competitiveness.
"The strong baht will slightly affect exports, but there is still no concern. I believe exports will continue to grow as they have done so far. Currency appreciation has been common in the region," Finance Minister and Deputy Premier MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said.
The baht opened at 36.50/36.52 to the US dollar before climbing to the day's peak of 36.38, a level unseen for almost eight years. It closed at 36.40/36.42, breaking the key resistance level of 36.50.
Investors have sold the dollar in offshore markets after several countries said they would diversify their international reserves rather than hold mainly greenbacks.
Dealers said the baht would edge up almost every day and likely pass Bt36 by year's end.
Pridiyathorn said it was not that the baht was that strong, but rather that the dollar had weakened. The central bank has already taken good care of the baht's value, he said.
Exports will expand 11-12 per cent in value next year, he said.
Kirida Bhaopichitr, an economist in the World Bank's office in Bangkok, said the baht would appreciate further next year by 1-1.50.
Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), believes the baht will top 36 this year and continue upwards until the middle of next year.
Hit 35.80 last night!
SOARING CURRENCY
Speculators behind baht surge: BOT
Non-residents have been buying baht bonds to lay hands on Thai currency
The Bank of Thailand blamed foreign speculators for driving the baht beyond the Bt36 level to an eight-year high yesterday.
The baht opened at Bt36.07-Bt36.10 and closed at its peak for the day of Bt35.95-Bt35.98 - the highest in eight years.
Local bank dealers confirmed that there had been speculation, adding that the currency had appreciated too rapidly also because of the weakening of the US dollar. During the past six months, it has gained Bt2 against the greenback, which is far more than other currencies in the region.
"Without intervention, the baht could rise further to Bt35.80 soon," said one dealer
SOARING CURRENCY
Speculators behind baht surge: BOT
Non-residents have been buying baht bonds to lay hands on Thai currency
The Bank of Thailand blamed foreign speculators for driving the baht beyond the Bt36 level to an eight-year high yesterday.
The baht opened at Bt36.07-Bt36.10 and closed at its peak for the day of Bt35.95-Bt35.98 - the highest in eight years.
Local bank dealers confirmed that there had been speculation, adding that the currency had appreciated too rapidly also because of the weakening of the US dollar. During the past six months, it has gained Bt2 against the greenback, which is far more than other currencies in the region.
"Without intervention, the baht could rise further to Bt35.80 soon," said one dealer
Buying gold is a great idea, however abandoning ship is not always possible for Americans who are paid in dollars.nevket240 wrote:Abandon ship me hearties!!!
once the yuan appreciates in 07 and drags regional currencies with it, yer all doomed.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 719467.htm
yep, the decline of the US$ is a long drawn out affair. but permanent. buy gold. (and another Guinness)
cheers.
The other thing to remember is that recession periods are a norm in the states, Housing market is great way to follow that. The norm in my lifetime has been a bubble in the housing market totally out of reality. Market goes to heck and anyone having bought in the past three years ends up with a loan that exceeds the value of the home. But with a few years it turns around.
It's intersting the Fed can turn this around quickly with interest rates, money will always go where the best yield is. With the interest rates where they are at the moment there is better yield elsewhere. The currency market seem to be based on short term yield and if the money is right the defisate will probably be ignored again.
The part that is hard to understand is why the baht is so popular at the moment, they are not in a good export situation. A lot of the things that caused the 97 crash are easily seen. With that the currency market being short term the rug could be pulled out very easily. If she short term gains are what is being seeked it will more then likely happen, when the next short term deal looks better.
Personally I will bet on the US over Thailand on this one.
By the way I don't pretend to be an expert on this, just the conclusion I have came to listening to the various experts, who are very devided on this one.
I also think it will get worse before it gets better, I think we have at least one tough year ahead of us and probably more like three.
Thailand is making some of the same mistake it made in the last crash, the big one trying to keep the value of the dollar up to export keep thier advantage in export. The US's export value is much higher now then it was.
This didn't happen over night and it is not going to get better over night.
I'm not happy about things are but I'm not going to panick and abandon ship either.
I have friend who tell me about the day of 56 to 1, that must have really been scarey when it dropped to 44.
How did Thailand get the money to recover interest rates, big returns on money invested. Money poured into the country on short term gains.
I wouldn't give up hope just yet.
Ray
I wondered at the time ,how can that be ,because I seem to be reading everyday that the export companies are screaming about going out of business because of the declining dollar against the baht.
I think I read in the paper today that exports were upThe part that is hard to understand is why the baht is so popular at the moment, they are not in a good export situation.
I wondered at the time ,how can that be ,because I seem to be reading everyday that the export companies are screaming about going out of business because of the declining dollar against the baht.