ECONOMY
Continued recovery in auto market
Thailand's vehicle sales rose to 49,227 units in February, pushing the sales in the first two months to 94,657 units or a 15.09 per cent increase from the same period last year.
In February alone, the number of sold units rose 8.36 per cent from the previous month, according to the data compiled by Tri Petch Isuzu Sales. Passenger cars and 4WD vehicles showed the highest growth in sale, up 13.51 and 16.57 per cent respectively from January.
In the first two months, Toyota sold 38,496 units or 40.67 per cent of total, Isuzu 21,334 units or 22.54 per cent, and Honda 13,777 or 14.55 per cent. Of total, pick-up trucks accounted for 51,996 units, up 6.26 per cent from the same period last year.
Last year, the auto market showed a slight drop in sales due to unfavourable political and economic conditions.
- The Nation
Baht What up with Dat?????
This is one of the reasons why the Thai Stock market will keep on going up and consequently why the Thai Bath will get stronger.
Ray let me post my opinion.
it going to take a lot more then cars & pick up truck sales to keep econmy in the green
Now if the baht keeps getting stronger the exporting business will take the hit and they will move to other S/E asian countries namely Vietnam which is offering good benefits to corporations to move there business there
Now with that said once they move there gone forever. Were does that live Thailand & it strong baht
it going to take a lot more then cars & pick up truck sales to keep econmy in the green
Now if the baht keeps getting stronger the exporting business will take the hit and they will move to other S/E asian countries namely Vietnam which is offering good benefits to corporations to move there business there
Now with that said once they move there gone forever. Were does that live Thailand & it strong baht
One of the intersting things I read this morning and for the life of me can't remember where. They were speaking of Vietnam being the next India and China in terms of economic growth.
By the way Ron I didn't post the thing about auto sales, by all means post your thoughts.
Anyone noticing that the off shore rate was higher then the onshore rate yesterday, wonder why that is?
By the way Ron I didn't post the thing about auto sales, by all means post your thoughts.
Anyone noticing that the off shore rate was higher then the onshore rate yesterday, wonder why that is?
Read the report in our local paper yesterday about Vietnam going big guns and Whooing companies from all over the World with subsidies to set up shop in Vietnam. The report also stated that 70% of the population were under 35 years and were keen to do business. Ron has been suggesting the dangers from this part of the world for some time now, but I dont think the Thai Govt. has been listening. I know its old news but, there is far too much anti falang feeling in Thailand at the moment, and it might just be there undoing.Bump wrote:One of the intersting things I read this morning and for the life of me can't remember where. They were speaking of Vietnam being the next India and China in terms of economic growth.
By the way Ron I didn't post the thing about auto sales, by all means post your thoughts.
Anyone noticing that the off shore rate was higher then the onshore rate yesterday, wonder why that is?
I am one that tries very hard to maintain a positive attitude through things like this. But I have noticed a difference even out in the villages. I have always accepted the hard states you see sometimes down town as well earned. But I had never seen it in the villages until recently. It has to be coming from somewhere.
They did a intereview with the Vietnam President ( not sure of the real title) on Bloomberg the other day. Vietnam Vet wounded four times, they were trying to hammer him about freedoms there. His psotion was his people had freedom within lines of thier culture and refused to compare it to the west. Simply saying the cultures were different and a comparison wasn't even possible. Let me tell you this guy was as sharp as a tack and no slouch. I have no idea what life would be like there, but this guy was impressive. People like this could be why you substantial growth in the region.
Nothing vague offered straight answers. Asia is Asia but it sure looked good on paper.
They did a intereview with the Vietnam President ( not sure of the real title) on Bloomberg the other day. Vietnam Vet wounded four times, they were trying to hammer him about freedoms there. His psotion was his people had freedom within lines of thier culture and refused to compare it to the west. Simply saying the cultures were different and a comparison wasn't even possible. Let me tell you this guy was as sharp as a tack and no slouch. I have no idea what life would be like there, but this guy was impressive. People like this could be why you substantial growth in the region.
Nothing vague offered straight answers. Asia is Asia but it sure looked good on paper.
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Bandung_Dero
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 3710
- Joined: July 10, 2005, 8:53 am
- Location: Ban Dung or Perth W.A.
Thai's two tier x-rates basically ceased at the beginning of the month when the BOT quashed the 30% withholding thingy on foreign investments. We are now looking at the small difference between Offshore x-rates and the local banks.Bump wrote: Anyone noticing that the off shore rate was higher then the onshore rate yesterday, wonder why that is?
A little off topic, but may ease others pain a bit. I decided to get out of the market due to loses and riding it out is no longer an option at my age. The day after I sold the market had the biggest single day gain in 5 YEARS;o( Tomorrow the funds will be in cyber space and I fear the dollar will fall more by the time the funds hit the bank account here;o( Sometimes I can't win for loosing, but I still think I'm one of the luckiest people on earth;o)
Keep the post alive it is much easier reading news here than searching the world on our own especially for me that is not a financial major.
Vietnam may be old news but they have recently put things in high gear. China as predicted has become too expensive for SMEs along the coast and they are moving to Vietnam along with big names.
Vietnam may be old news but they have recently put things in high gear. China as predicted has become too expensive for SMEs along the coast and they are moving to Vietnam along with big names.
ECONOMY
Thailand closely monitors US finances
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said on Monday that Thailand would closely monitor the impacts of the US Federal Reserve Board's sudden rate cut on Sunday.
Still, he declined to give a hint how Thai rates would move after the action, citing that it is the Monetary Policy Committee to decide.
The Fed announced on Sunday that it was cutting by a quarter-point to 3.25 per cent its primary credit rate, which is the rate offered at the Fed's discount window for loans to institutions. The decision came two days ahead of a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting when it is widely expected to cut its base rate further in an effort to get credit flowing.
The move followed the near collapse of Wall Street giant Bear Stearns that highlighted financial crisis in the US.
Kamphon Panyakomes, a lecturer at NIDA Business School, expected the FOMC to cut the base rate by half a percentage point.
"If the cut is steeper than expected, it would give a short-term boost to the US stock market. However, in the long term, it could affect inflation, which becomes a hot issue to central banks around the world," he said.
He foresaw that Thailand would need to cut short-term rates accordingly, and in the short term the Thai exchange would also enjoy the positive response. However, the lower rates would push down dollar against other currencies including the Thai baht. This would affect their exports.
"The US now has limited tools in handling economic problems. If the rate cut is not successful, it would be difficult. If the rates are slashed over and over, it could create a new problem particularly inflation, at times of high oil prices," he said.
- The Nation
Is there any doubt in anyones mind that the Fed will lower interest rates in it's current meeting?
More baht, oil price worries
Thai exporters yesterday asked the government to manage the exchange-rate policy competently amid increasing volatility in global financial markets following the latest bail-out of US securities firm Bear Sterns.Published on March 18, 2008
Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman Santi Vilassakdanont said the deepening US sub-prime crisis could jeopardise the baht, due to an expected rise in capital inflows.
"Exporters are increasingly worried the US Federal Reserve Bank will further cut its interest rate [following the Bear Sterns crisis], resulting in huge capital inflows into Asia," he said.
"China and Vietnam may not be seriously affected, because of their tight capital controls. However, countries like Thailand could be hurt, because of our liberalisation policy, so the authorities need to manage the baht properly, or else it could become much stronger, because of the cancellation of the 30-per-cent capital reserve requirement."
The FTI chairman also urged the government to come up with urgent measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises and fishermen who are being hit hard by the unrelenting rise in crude oil prices, which soared to US$111 (Bt3,500) per barrel yesterday.
Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee agreed the condition of the US economy and rising oil prices were still key risk factors for Thailand's economic growth.
Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the FTI's Food Industry Club, said the growth of food exports would be hit if the baht appreciated further significantly.
"If the exchange rate is Bt33.5 to the US dollar, our food exports will expand 7.6 per cent year on year. But if the baht become stronger, say, 30 to the dollar, exports will grow only 1.9 per cent," he said.
A growing number of food factories have reduced output, because they expect big losses from the baht's appreciation and higher production costs, he said.
The Nation, APDJ
US FINANCIAL CRISIS
Baht set to strengthen against weak dollar but at slower rate
source: The Nation/Thiti Tantikulanan March 18, 2008
The story of the strengthening of the baht and the lifting of the 30-per-cent capital-control measure are taking a back seat to the worsening crisis of the US dollar and the US economy during the past week.
The dollar opened last week on a grim note, with US employment data reporting the economy lost 52,000 jobs last month, which was more than what the market had anticipated. This has all but confirmed the US economy is indeed in a recession.
The next disappointment was the credit and liquidity crunch, which saw banks reluctant to lend to each other, due to renewed concerns of more loss write-offs from sub-prime assets.
In the middle of last week, the US Federal Reserves introduced market-friendly initiatives to alleviate the problems by offering to swap illiquid securities with "safer" US treasuries. This allowed financial institutions previously experiencing difficulties in borrowing from the market to gain access to US treasuries, which could then be used as collateral to back up future borrowings.
Next came an announcement last Friday when the Fed did something they have never done before in their history: agreeing to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest US securities firm that is not a bank.
The biggest hammer blow came on Sunday, when JP Morgan announced it was buying Bear Stearns for US$2 per share after shares were trading in the $90 range just last December.
The implication of this unprecedented move provides an insight into how seriously the Fed is assessing the situation. As a result, the dollar broke below the all-important psychological level of 100 against the yen - the most actively traded currency pair in the world - last Thursday and touched 96 on Monday morning. The dollar/yen exchange rate can be used as a proxy on how the financial markets view the health of the US economy. Currently, Fed Fund futures give a 50/50 chance of a 1-per-cent rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting today. A reduction of this magnitude would be the first in two decades.
For the baht, it has been two weeks since the Bank of Thailand (BOT) lifted the 30-per-cent capital-control measure, and the baht has been surprisingly stable.
Last Friday, the BOT announced the weekly changes in their net foreign-exchange-reserve position. That made it easy to understand why the baht had been so stable. The net reserves increased $3.4 billion in the week following the lifting of the 30-per-cent measure.
That shows the BOT has been selling the baht quite aggressively to prop up the dollar.
With the value of the dollar against most currencies continuing on a downtrend, the baht is also expected to grow stronger but probably at a slower pace than other currencies, due to BOT intervention. And the fact that the baht is already the second-strongest Asian currency, appreciating 7.2 per cent against the dollar so far this year, will keep speculators from aggressively pushing the baht up further. As for the largest appreciating Asian currency this year, it is the fast and furious yen, at 15.2 per cent in just 10 weeks.
Thiti Tantikulanan is head of capital markets at Kasikornbank
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.Thai Baht Rises to 1997 High as Fed Rate Cut May Boost Demand
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's baht advanced to the highest since August 1997 on speculation a U.S. interest-rate cut will boost demand for the nation's higher yields.
The baht is the best performer against the dollar this year among the 10 most-traded Asian currencies outside Japan, rising 7.6 percent as exporters sold the U.S. currency to protect earnings. Futures contracts indicate the Federal Reserve will trim the target for overnight bank lending by 1 percentage point to 2 percent today. Thailand's benchmark rate is 3.25 percent.
``There is pressure from exporters selling dollars,'' said Chatchawan Jumruswittayawong, a foreign-exchange trader at Bank of Ayudhya Pcl in Bangkok. ``Expectations the Fed will cut rates significantly is fueling dollar weakness. In the event the Bank of Thailand doesn't lower rates, the wider interest-rate differential will support a stronger baht.''
The baht rose 0.5 percent to 31.25 per dollar and traded at 31.33 as of 11:14 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 31.24, the highest since Aug. 14, 1997.
Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase said yesterday that the baht has gained ``in line'' with regional currencies. ``We will continue to take care of the baht, so the currency moves in line with economic fundamentals and is not too volatile for the economy,'' Tarisa said.
The Fed in January cut its benchmark rate by a combined 1.25 percentage points to 3 percent. The Bank of Thailand kept its one-day bond repurchase rate at 3.25 percent at its most recent meeting on Feb. 27.
``Lower U.S. rates would benefit Asian currencies,'' said Emmanuel Ng, a currency strategist with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. ``Underlying flows for the Thai baht remain net positive given the balance of payments picture.''
The currency may rise to around 30 against the dollar by year-end, Ng said.
Baht-denominated bonds have handed investors a return of 4.2 percent this year, the second-best among 10 local-currency debt indexes compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc. Hong Kong bonds have gained 4.8 percent.
Thai policy makers will assess inflation and growth at the next rate meeting on April 9, Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee said yesterday.
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I don't think so. I think the President is AWOL on the whole financial mess.
Steve Forbes writes "The Bush administration must take two steps immediately to quickly halt the unending, enervating credit crisis: shore up the anemic dollar and, for the time being, suspend "marking to market" those new financial instruments, such as packages of subprime mortgages.
The weak dollar is pummeling equities, disrupting the economy, distorting global trade and giving hundreds of billions of dollars in windfall revenues--through skyrocketing commodity prices--to our adversaries such as Iran and Venezuela. Not since Jimmy Carter has the U.S. had a President so oblivious to the damage done by an increasingly feeble greenback ..."
Oh I think it goes much further then just George. On another thought why are commodities dropping? The dollar may have moved but not that much.
Gold Leads Commodities Plunge on Outlook for Dollar, Economy
By Glenys Sim
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold headed for its biggest weekly drop in 25 years, leading a drop in commodity prices, after the dollar rallied and concern mounted a U.S.-led slowdown in the global economy will reduce consumption of raw materials.
Oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 5, soybeans dropped for a second day and copper had its biggest two-day decline in seven months. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials is having its worst week since at least 1997, led by declines in soybeans, cocoa and cotton.
There is ``a glaring divergence between escalating commodity prices and waning world economic growth,'' James Steel, an analyst with HSBC Securities in New York, wrote in a report e- mailed today. It is ``no longer assured that commodity price appreciation is a safe one-way bet.''
Gold in London has plunged 12 percent from its record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17 after the Federal Reserve cut its overnight-lending rate less than expected by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent. The dollar has recovered 2.8 percent from an all- time low against the euro and rallied 4.6 percent from a 12-year low against the yen.
Commodities have advanced in each of the past six years, driven by demand from China seeking to feed its population and power its expanding economy. The dollar's slide has boosted demand for raw materials, which become cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, while some investors are seeking higher returns following a slump in equities.
`Absolutely Enormous'
The money flowing into commodities is ``absolutely enormous,'' James Proudlock, commodity product head for Europe, Middle East and Asia at JPMorgan Securities Ltd., said at a sugar conference yesterday in Geneva.
There are 361 commodity funds that had $98 billion in assets as of Feb. 28, compared with 345 funds with $80 billion at the end of 2007, he said.
The rally, according to Paul Touradji of the $3.5 billion hedge fund Touradji Capital Management LP, was a ``buying orgy'' that had inflated prices and increased the risks of a collapse.
Commodities ``have all gone parabolically higher on frenzied money flow,'' New York-based Touradji wrote to clients March 10. ``Unless that money flow continues ad infinitum, in which case prices would go to infinity, then the fundamentals had better be improving as quickly as prices have been, otherwise there is nothing else to keep the markets at these levels.''
Good for Nothing
The UBS Maturity Commodity Index has slumped almost 10 percent from a record Feb. 29. The gauge has dropped in three of the past four sessions.
``A protracted slowdown is ultimately not good for commodities as people won't have enough money to buy anything,'' said Hong Kong-based Dick Poon, manager of the precious metals trading desk at Heraeus Ltd., a unit of processor Heraeus Holding GmbH in Germany.
Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 4.1 percent to $905.41 an ounce, the lowest since Feb. 19, and traded at $914.71 as of 10:25 a.m. in London. The metal's 8.8 percent drop this week would be the biggest since March 1983. The U.K. and U.S. are on holiday tomorrow.
The precious metal may slump as low as $870, Poon said in a telephone interview. ``The run-up was due mainly to speculative long positions and these are being liquidated.''
Oil soared to a record this year even as analysts forecast that consumption will increase less than in 2007. Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $2.95, or 2.9 percent, to $99.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $100.11 as of 9:52 a.m. in London.
Fundamental Focus
``The oil price slump along with all the other commodities resulted from the dollar staging a rally, so the large funds flowed out of the commodities complex,'' said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. ``Investors have found a trigger to focus more on fundamentals.''
Copper declined on the London Metal Exchange on concern the reduction in borrowing costs won't be enough to keep the U.S. from slipping into a recession. Corn and soybean futures in Chicago extended losses as the dollar's rally reduced the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Milling wheat for May delivery on the Liffe exchange in Paris slid 5 euros, or 1.8 percent, to 268.25 euros ($415) a ton as of 11:28 a.m. in Paris.
To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 20, 2008 06:59 EDT
Guess inflation just isn't high enough yet, I'm sure this will help the Thai export market and certianly curb the baht appreciation.
PM to adjust take home pay
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej vowed Thursday to adjust the take home pay for Thai people after learning from his three-day visit to the island state that Singaporeans earn eight times more than Thais.
"During a tour of the local market, I saw with my own eyes that food prices are three times higher than comparable products in Thailand. But a new university graduate would earn the salary comparable to the pay in the United States, which is eight times more than a Thai university graduate," he said.
This made him think about emulating the Singapore lesson that proved that earnings could outpace the cost of living, he said. - The Nation