Baht What up with Dat?????

[aznyron]

Git I have a question to those who know more than we do if they buy US Bonds & currency wouldn't
that strengthen the USD ?

[bumper]

I'm in the same boat as you I really don't know. I notice that we are getting little more each day on the exchange this week. Doesn't mean it will stay that way, but nice to see anyway.

Sure has been a long three years or so.

I also have seen news articles that several countries are now trying to support their currencies as well as Thailand, Korea and Russia come to mind

[bumper]

This may be a key to what we see in the upcoming months, but it does not say the $350 billion plan was brought up at all.

Asean plus three" leaders vow joint efforts on financial crisis

Web www.bangkokpost.com

Beijing (dpa) - Leaders of the "Asean plus three" group on Friday promised joint efforts to combat the global financial crisis and maintain regional economic stability.


Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao chaired the meeting of leaders of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan and South Korea.


The 13 Asian leaders held an open discussion on "issues of common concern, especially the financial crisis and its influence on East Asia," host nation China said.


"They expressed their willingness to enhance coordination and cooperation and to make joint efforts to prevent and withstand the crisis in a bid to maintain economic stability," the Chinese government reported on the official website of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem), which was scheduled to open later on Friday.


Officials said the 13 leaders had agreed to hold a technical working group next month in the Philippines to discuss details to be presented to the Asean leaders' summit in Thailand in December.


Thai media reported earlier that Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat planned to propose that the "Asean plus three" group set up a 350-billion-dollar reserve fund, but it was not immediately known if Somchai had made the proposal.


A total of 16 Asian leaders and 27 leaders of EU nations are in Beijing to attend the seventh biannual Asem summit on Friday and Saturday.


The Asem summit will also focus on the financial crisis and discuss measures to combat climate change caused by global warming.

[aznyron]

the bot high for today was 34.35 now 34.29 they will keep it there all weekend unless the USD weakens
then they will rush to change it to benefit them. IMO you will not see a big change during high season
you know IMO if I was in control I would weaken the bot during High season you will get more tourist and in the end the country benefits

[Pakawala]

Sorry Ron but just as I clicked on this link I noticed the US$ rate is now 35.01. The dollar seems to be able to hold its own in these hard times... hope it continues. [-o<

[nevket240]

from the Sovereign Society newsletter

[quote]Tuesday, October 21, 2008 - Vol. 10, No. 251
Poor Earnings Send
Stocks Tumbling Again...
Yet "Unexpected" Strategy Provides Four-Digit Profits Despite Historic Collapse of Global Stock Markets

Today's Trade Brings Us to Thailand, Where "Instability" Is Bringing the Economy to Its Knees -
FREE - "Big Game Hunting" Webinar Shows You How to Profit - View It Now.

Today's comment is the third in a special six-part series on emerging market opportunities written by Currency Experts, Jack & John Ross Crooks.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

The major stock indexes are in the red again today, following a spate of poor earnings reports. And while no one has officially called "recession" yet, if we're not in it already, it's only a matter of time.

However, if you're a trader, you can turn this bad news into serious profits - without risky short selling or buying put options. That's because the overwhelmingly bearish trend for the global economy is creating some high-probability trades in the emerging markets. In fact, in the last two months, we've made a total of six trades in the currencies of these countries, with a 100% success rate and average gains of 775%.

I do not say that to brag. We don't expect to always bat a thousand. We'll definitely have our share of losses and when they happen we'll do our best to use risk-management strategies to minimize them. However, the reversal and decline of the emerging economies is such a pronounced trend right now that it represents one of the best trading opportunities we've seen in our lifetimes.

So far this week, we've looked at opportunities in Poland and the Czech Republic and seen how their weakening currencies have already given us significant gains of 940% and 1,010%. Today, we're going to look at the single best trading opportunity for exotic currencies in Asia. Specifically, we're going to see why the Thai baht is in trouble and could provide some very significant profits for savvy traders.



Damaging Mix of Economic and Political Problems
Will Send Investors Running Out of Thailand


You know by now that emerging market currencies are like bodybuilders on steroids.

When they get their fix of liquidity (capital flowing in) they are very powerful and outperform the major currency block by a wide margin. But if their source dries up, just like a junkie, they quickly lose strength and can crash and burn.

Among emerging Asian currencies, the Thai baht appears most exposed to global market conditions, most vulnerable to the crash-and-burn scenario. Keep in mind, Thailand was ground zero for the Asian Financial Crisis back in 1997-98. It has history. And history is bound to repeat itself!

As recession digs in across the developed world, demand is swooning. This trend is already being reflected in the price of commodities. Crude oil, specifically, has plunged like a refrigerator off a high-dive. And demand in the developed world is set to taper off even further.

Simply put: Sinking demand is very bad news for the emerging market world, especially Thailand where 70% of their gross domestic product flows from exports.

And if you're wondering what country is the largest single importer of Thai exports, look no further than the United States. It's safe to say Thailand is as tied into the global slowdown as anyone.

Estimates had been calling for export growth, in dollar terms, of 15-19% in 2009. But wait - scratch that. The Thai Chamber of Commerce now expects only single-digit export growth next year. Annual export growth collapsed from July to August, falling from 43.9% to 15.5%.

And that's just the beginning of the story for Thailand...


Instability Bringing Thailand to Its Knees
Until lately Thailand had been suffering from surging inflation and a central bank scared to take action. Annual price growth ran as fast as 9.2% in June.

But since global demand has self-destructed and crude oil prices have sunk considerably in recent months, the inflation rate in Thailand has eased to the 6% range.

Still, that's not so healthy. But the fact that core inflation is moving down towards more comfortable levels for the central bank means their focus is shifting towards maintaining growth. The impact of the global credit crisis on Thailand's economy remains to be seen. But it's no stretch to expect disappointing numbers once the dust settles on this global meltdown.

But falling growth will exacerbate already high political tensions, and vice versa.

Protests between supporters of the previously ousted government and its opponents have already prompted a State of Emergency. It has since been lifted, but the government can only hope the situation doesn't escalate again.

We just learned that the previous Prime Minister, Thaksin Sinawatra, was sentenced to two years in prison for fraud. What this does is bolster protestors' attempts to oust the current government, the People Power Party.

If government officials are preoccupied with the growing political crisis, then they will be distracted from mounting economic pressures. And oddly, mounting economic woes have a way of increasing political tensions because people naturally seek scapegoats for their problems.

Needless to say, the thought of yet another change of government is reason enough for foreign investors to flee Thailand. Mix it with a deteriorating export market and you're shaving at least a percentage point off of GDP, possibly more.

Can you say capital flight? We think it comes soon.

Our sole Thai baht trade has produced 220% gains in about 2 ½ months. We expect many more profitable trades on the baht as the crushing reality of a global recession weighs on the export-dependent currency like a boulder.

Tomorrow, we'll be traveling south to the emerging-market of South Africa - but more specifically - we'll discuss the economic factors responsible for recently handing us an 890% gain on the rand.[/quote]

regards

[nevket240]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

man the lifeboats. the daily limit has been reached. by the Jan inuguration we will be living in a vastly different world. interesting times, eh what??
regards

[bumper]

Thai baht to move in narrrow range against US dollar this week
BANGKOK, Oct 26 (TNA) -- The Thai baht, which moved to slightly over a one month low against the US dollar last week, is expected to move in a narrow range against the greenback this week as traders are expected to closely monitor results of a US Federal Reserve meeting, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.

The report said the baht is expected to move within a Bt34.40-34.80 range against the dollar this week compared to last Friday's close of Bt34.70 against the dollar on the onshore market.

It said the baht is projected to move in line with other currencies in the region, key US economic data for September and results of the US Federal Reserve meeting which will be held this Tuesday and Wednesday.

The overnight interbank rate this week is, according to the report, expected to move at around 3.75-3.76 per cent compared to the 3.67-3.76 per cent registered last week. (TNA)

[bumper]

There was an interesting discussion on NBT to day, that revealed a lot. They believe that depreciating the baht will serve no purpose, because no matter what the price there will be no market. Hence no advantage to a lower valued currency. Fact is they might just be right. The factory worlers will return to the farm have food and place to stay. They will actually poroably be in lot more comfort then where they stay to have these job. Thye simplw dontl think in a westen way, they haev system that has worked for them many many centuries.

The one area that they keep talking about in the tourist trade and they have allowed huge budget to promote it. Actually one of six incentives. If the rate exchange doesn't lossen up Thailand will remain an expensive Asain vacation. There ar simply to many alternatives availble. I think they have miss called this one. In my humble opinnion the value they see is much different then the value the western tourist sees.

[bumper]

Ok things are moving slowly but they are moving, to fast and inflation will kill us. Thailand will have more difficulty in the end then her neighbors simply because of political risks, which show no signs of stopping.

Asian Currencies: Thai Baht, Won Decline on Growth Concern

By Judy Chen and Lilian Karunungan

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's baht and South Korea's won fell, leading declines in Asia, on concern that a global financial crisis will hurt the region's economic expansion.

Thailand's baht slumped to an 18-month low on concern that slowing growth and prolonged political unrest will keep overseas investors away. The won slid for a sixth day, extending its loss this year to 36 percent, as foreign fund managers sold more Korean shares than they bought for a 10th day.

``It's basically just risk aversion spreading on to the wider market,'' Goh Puay Yeong, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. ``So there's a huge premium right now in any emerging-market asset.''

The baht dropped as much as 0.4 percent to 34.97 per dollar, the weakest since April 2007, before trading at 34.92 at 4:17 p.m. in Bangkok. The won fell as much as 3.5 percent to 1,495 against the dollar, the lowest since March 1998, before closing at 1,468, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.

South Korea's consumer confidence index dropped to 88 in October from 96 in September, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul today. That's close to the eight-year low of 84 reached in July.

The baht has lost 15 percent so far this year as foreign investors sold $4.3 billion more Thai shares than they bought. Thailand's benchmark SET Index, which plunged more than 10 percent yesterday, rebounded 2.7 percent today.

Anti-government protesters have occupied Government House for more than two months. Thailand has had two premiers already this year following general elections in December.

``Economic concerns and prolonged political uncertainty have kept investors sidelined,'' said Nicholas Bibby, an economist at Barclays Bank Plc in Singapore.

Yen Gains End

The yen fell for the first time in six days against the dollar and dropped the most in almost two weeks versus the euro as a rebound in Asian stocks bolstered investor confidence in higher-yielding assets.

The yen also declined on speculation Japan's central bank will sell its currency for the first time since March 2004. Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said yesterday the government is ready to act if needed to halt gains in the yen, which earlier traded near a 13-year high against the dollar.

``Equities are rebounding, giving some assurance to investors,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``There also are fears of possible intervention by Japan. All of this is causing selling of the yen.''

Japan's currency dropped to 94.72 per dollar, from 92.78 late yesterday. It reached 90.93 on Oct. 24, the highest since August 1995. The currency declined 2 percent to 118.33 per euro from 115.92 yesterday, when it reached the strongest level in more than six years.

Ringgit, Rupiah

Malaysia's ringgit slid to its weakest since December 2006 as the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index of stocks declined as much as 6.7 percent today.

``The ringgit has more downside as the stock market is still searching for the bottom,'' said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.

The ringgit fell as much as 0.5 percent to 3.6005 per dollar before trading little changed at 3.5830, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indonesia's rupiah rebounded from the lowest level in seven years as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said today the government will take ``quick'' action to support the currency. It has fallen 12 percent in October as overseas investors sold $145 million more of the nation's stocks than they bought.

Indonesia's central bank sold dollars today at a level of 12,000 rupiah, according to Joanna Tan, an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging purchases or sales of foreign exchange.

The rupiah rose 0.5 percent to 10,900 versus the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 11,900, the weakest level since April 2001.

Forward Contracts

Non-deliverable forwards contracts show traders are betting the currency will weaken 24 percent to 14,300 against the dollar in the next 12 months. Forwards are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for delivery at a specified future date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.

Elsewhere, Vietnam's dong was little changed at 16,842.5. The Philippine peso rose 0.6 percent to 49.12. Taiwan's dollar climbed 0.2 percent to 33.438. India's financial markets were shut today for a public holiday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Judy Chen in Shanghai at xchen45@bloomberg.net; Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 28, 2008 05:52 EDT

[valiant]

To make things even worse it is Snowing here in the UK.

[BobHelm]

To make things even worse it is Snowing here in the UK.

Ah, all the signs of the UK having a traditional, Dickensian Christmas then valiant...

[valiant]

Lets hope that our Gordons read the Christmas Carol and does something with the pound for all us Mr Cratchetts

[BobHelm]

Lets hope that our Gordons read the Christmas Carol and does something with the pound for all us Mr Cratchetts

Ah, now I fear you are really in the land of fiction. Good Chancellor for most of the time (possibly statistically one of the best, except for what he did to Pension Funds ) but a half wit when he gained the top job - except. maybe, Tony was far, far too smart for anyone & saw the way UK was going....

[valiant]

Will he get this right I wonder ? I hope so otherwise our holiday in the land of Smiles will take a good pounding.I can remember when I first came it was 74 baht to the pound Dec 2004

[mortiboy]

I remember pre 1996 the baht was 39 - pound Now that is scary!

[bumper]

Yep dollar 26 to one, but you could have a heck of a good time on 200 baht, try that today.


You know we get a new boss very soon, if I was the guy who one that one I would run for shelter, what a mess that person is going to walk into.

Oh well just like bad gas this to will pass. =D>

[mortiboy]

Gas? OH NO! not again!
(Oh well just like bad gas this to will pass.)

[bumper]

Sorry forgot about that run on another thread

[Nobby]

As far as being a good chancellor is concerned, our dear Gordon Brown had a big say in Tony Blair's cabinet/government, certainly as far as financial matters were concerned, hence the s**t state the UK finds itself in. My guess is that 80 percent of the 630 odd MP's in the House of Commons could have done a better job than him, given the amount of tax he has taken from the British tax payer in the last 10 - 12 years .