Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by **747man** » August 21, 2015, 10:58 am

Well it's OVER 55 Baht to The GBP In the Banks Today........Also OVER 56 On the Forex Markets,( For Guys like Zidane,Who I'm CERTAIN Has a few Quid to Splash around after grabbing all the bargains in Tesco / Lotus.....)

Post by **Jing Jing** » August 21, 2015, 11:15 am

Enjoy it while it last!

Post by **747man** » August 21, 2015, 12:03 pm

Jing Jing wrote:Enjoy it while it last!

Why ?? Do you have INSIDE Information that it will go down ?? I Can only see it going one way & That is UP......

Post by **JimboPSM** » August 21, 2015, 12:26 pm

parrot wrote:Is it fair to say that with the devaluations of the Chinese renminbi (recently) and the Vietnamese dong (over the past year), that the 6.5% or so change in value of the baht/dollar over the past year......puts all 3 currencies at par with each other......more or less?
Just curious

In my opinion, nope.

Due to the dramatically different structures, maturities and opaqueness of their economies, direct comparisons are very difficult to make and fraught with all kinds of dodgy data.

While China, Thailand and Vietnam may geographically all be in Asia, beyond that they do not share all that much in common politically or economically (Caveat: my knowledge of Vietnam is considerably thinner than that of Thailand and China).

However, one thing that China and Thailand do have in common (and probably Vietnam also) is a mindset of the authorities that all too often focusses on and measures their performance against that of the US instead of their neighbours (who are their main competitors).

In Thailand this resulted in the profoundly dumb tracking of the USD in the second half of 2014 when the value of the USD was being hyped up for speculative and flight to safety reasons – and this was further exacerbated by the polar opposite headings of their respective economies

I did begin some limited research on the Vietnam economy and the VND a few years ago, but sadly it has been on a back burner since then as most of my spare time is devoted to researching the US and Thai economies - which leaves precious little time for research into the economies of other countries

With regard to the CNY, there was an article in the Bangkok Post last week where the Governor of the Bank of Thailand discussed the impact of the recent CNY movement.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... drive-baht

I made the following brief comment which appears underneath the article (note: comments on the BP have to be brief because of a character / word limit on them):
While the Governor may be correct about the period from January 2015 to date, sadly the Governor neglected to include the period from July 2014 to December 2014 when the Baht was broadly tracking the USD and effectively appreciated by over 5%. The measures taken in 2015 have only dealt with the movements in 2015 and have not dealt with the structural imbalance created from July 2014 to December 2014 - consequently the Baht remains overvalued by some 5%.
The chart below shows how the imbalance of 5.5% created between July 2014 and December 2014 was still there at the end of last week – although to be fair, the imbalance of 5.5% at the end of 2014 had reduced then by a whopping 0.1% to 5.4% (NB: does not allow for statistical margin of error).
- While the bright green line shows a noticeable fall of the Baht in the USD/THB rate after the 14th August (the latest date that I have US Dollar Index data), that fall was specifically related to the Erawan Shrine incident, not to economic policy by the Government or monetary policy by the BoT.
  
  Note: In the chart DTWEXM does not include China, Thailand or Vietnam; while DTWEXB & DTWEXO include China and Thailand but do not include Vietnam.
  
  Apologies for the complexities, but the background is rather complex and there are multitudinous issues of smoke and mirrors to contend with, much of the spin is turbocharged and far too much of the commentary and analysis in the financial media is rather disingenuous.

Following the movement of the CNY which surprised the markets last week, I decided to dig into my data records and take a detailed look at the daily movements of the CNY since 2005 (Note: the CNY was “liberalised” in July 2005).

The chart below from 2005 demonstrates just how smooth (closely managed) until last week has been the appreciation of the CNY over the last 10 years:

Daily movements of the USD/CNY from 1st January 2005 to 20th August 2015

What it shows (by a quantum leap) is by far the most stable progression of any currency that I have ever charted; even the movement last week is not particularly dramatic when compared to the large number of movements of the currencies that have occurred (over the same period of time) of many of those who are trumping and whingeing the loudest.

This chart just shows the movements in 2015 which very clearly shows the movement last week.

Daily movements of the USD/CNY for 2015

While the movement may look dramatic, it is actually only 3%

Post by **Jing Jing** » August 21, 2015, 3:46 pm

All the countries' economies face a similar problem - increase exports but hold imports down. A weaker thb could mean Thailand is able to export goods cheaper and have more tourist. At some point this trade balance may need to be corrected.

Post by **bumper** » August 30, 2015, 1:56 pm

We may see 36 yet

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... ting-rules

Post by **bumper** » September 7, 2015, 11:14 am

Charter draft voted down. Two more years of the current powers. This article indicates that this will drag the economy down further. If so we should see more movement in the baht.

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... s&ru=yahoo

Post by **old timer** » September 7, 2015, 11:24 am

Unless I am missing something here, and the way I see it, the THB will lose value against falang money over the next year or so with the present Goverment, however inflation will be on the up so you will need to get more THB for your money just to stay even.

OT................... $\:D/$

Post by **GARYZX6R** » September 7, 2015, 4:24 pm

With the above news it just jumped 50 satang in the Pound. =D>

Post by **bumper** » September 7, 2015, 5:30 pm

Ya saw 36.05 to the dollar this afternoon. I also saw where the UDD is now saying return to the 97 constitution. Question can they keep the individual groups quiet for 2 more years?

Post by **parrot** » September 8, 2015, 1:31 am

On a whim, on 11 March 2015 I put on my best Whoopi Goldberg costume and predicted 40/$1 by the end of the year. For me the signs were the declining economy, continued entrenchment by the military in running various ministries, and build-build-build mentality that seems pervasive over most of the country. On March 11, the exchange rate was 32.85/$1.
The baht's now at 36+/$1......3+months to go......I'm feeling more confident by the day that I might hit my mark!

Anyone want to come to my book signing?

Post by **bumper** » September 8, 2015, 7:12 pm

I wouldn't be surprised

Post by **farlong68** » September 8, 2015, 9:14 pm

tried to come home last year but the govern by colours troubles kept us away... will work out better for us as exchange rate then was 28bht to $US and now 36 and maybe higher....have some family business to conclude so it will not be so expensive will buy a few pints on arrival if rate is 40 cheers john

Post by **old timer** » September 8, 2015, 9:39 pm

parrot wrote:On a whim, on 11 March 2015 I put on my best Whoopi Goldberg costume and predicted 40/$1 by the end of the year................
The baht's now at 36+/$1......3+months to go......I'm feeling more confident by the day that I might hit my mark!

Anyone want to come to my book signing?

Well done Gypsy Parrot, your prediction look like a good bet. OT just did a quick calculation and if the USD continues on the same path as it has for the last 3 months it will be at 43.96, lets say 44 by the end of the next 9 months and OT can not see anything that will stop this.
Must admit though OT is useless when it comes to money.

OT................ $\:D/$

Post by **Stantheman** » September 9, 2015, 1:33 am

OT, To many WFB using up all that hard earned cash?

Post by **bumper** » September 9, 2015, 8:19 am

It would appear the BOT stepped in today back o 36.o5 I managed to take some out yesterday

Post by **bumper** » September 9, 2015, 8:30 am

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/fin ... since-2009

Post by **Jing Jing** » September 9, 2015, 9:52 am

The take away from the BP articke is

"Fed policymakers will meet in the middle of this month to decide whether to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. Investors have been predicting a US rate hike as early as this month but growing concerns over China's cooling economy could delay the Fed's decision."

There are a lot of negative things that could happen if the Fed raises rates so that is why everyone is acquiring USD.

Post by **old timer** » September 9, 2015, 10:37 am

bumper wrote:It would appear the BOT stepped in today back o 36.o5 I managed to take some out yesterday

The USD has repeatedly dropped against the THB for a day or two after the weekend and always increased overall by the end of the week.
Change your money at the end of the week, not the beginning.

OT................... $\:D/$

Post by **old timer** » September 9, 2015, 10:38 am

Stantheman wrote:OT, To many WFB using up all that hard earned cash?

Happiness is priceless.

OT............... $\:D/$