The Base / Sansiri Condo open!

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 14, 2013, 2:01 am

I've halted more condo buys. The local market looks to be way too speculative for my appetite with sqm prices up over 30% in new projects since we bought and seemingly no slowdown in take ups. I see a skyline dotted with idle cranes in Udon's post-crash future...

Post by **pienmash** » June 14, 2013, 9:31 am

So are predicting the condo market bubble will burst before its even been fully inflated KD ??...

I think its fair to say that NOT ALL of the present condo blocks being planned and sold will actually even have the foundations dug ,,,, never buy off plan .... i recall similar thing happening in Pattaya many years ago ,,, scam after scam , i know at least one other UM member who will know and confirm the "sold out" condo blocks never to be built in fun city back then ..

mash

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 14, 2013, 10:04 am

I'm not "predicting" anything. Just wary of a repeat of 1997-ish happenings. My first time in Pattaya was 1999 and I remember it well...

Post by **Sakhonnick** » June 16, 2013, 12:23 pm

Everyone is full of positives or negitives, its all down to each ones own finances, this place looked better than Lumpini Place but was way more expensive and they wanted more downpayment.

Golden Rule: only invest more than your willing to loose, chances are you wont loose but there is a chance.

Post by **writemotive** » June 16, 2013, 12:58 pm

Does anyone know if the investment in the condo projects around town are attracting cash or credit buyers? Does this have any indication of potential risk? Thanks.

Post by **Sakhonnick** » June 16, 2013, 1:29 pm

writemotive wrote:Does anyone know if the investment in the condo projects around town are attracting cash or credit buyers? Does this have any indication of potential risk? Thanks.

I would say 60/40 with the most being credit

The lady at Lumpini Place told me about 12 buyers all thais had paid the 5,000 deposit then got refused by the bank

Many will be credit but remember there are lots of rich thais out there she also told me most paid the deposit and downpayment in one time where i prefered to pay 5,000 per month as if i see in a few months nothing going on i could question or even back out

Life is full of risks its all about how much you want to gamble with

Post by **writemotive** » June 16, 2013, 5:11 pm

Thanks, it just appears that if you can roll the dice on credit, more will, driving up the demand/prices on property. I have read on this forum that Thailand was traditionally a cash society including property. So, sellers could sit on their properties/prices without any the pressure to sell or lower their price to market. I have seen the same properties at the same prices on Udon RE agent sites for years. I guess this explains why, or does it? To tie this into the topic, I will just wait and see, maybe wait till delivery of the Base / Sansiri/ Lumpini, etc. and take my chances on the next round, if there is one. Thanks again.

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 16, 2013, 7:15 pm

A big reason those houses stay on RE sites is because Thais don't normally buy 2nd hand houses. Another phenomenon I've only seen in Thailand is Thais will move their price up, but not down. At least not publicly.

A 10m b home with a pig farm and garbage dump newly set up on either side and decay from being abandoned for years will still be priced to sell at 10m b. Go figure...

Post by **writemotive** » June 16, 2013, 8:33 pm

So, those investing in the first wave of condos will resell them before completion? Will the investment frenzy see units flip several times before occupancy? Who will live in them? Will the majority be owner occupied or rentals. Who will rent them? At the prices paid can these be positive income units? I don't see the army of commuters on motorbikes able to make the leap to town even on the higher wages, not at the prices being described on the developers brochures. Is it all speculation fueling this new market of condos? I have some ideas but I am a part-timer working in the sands. We built about 30 clicks out of town and would like to buy closer to schools, and other resources. Seems we missed the opportunity to buy 5-6 years ago when prices/values seemed more realistic. Some here say buy, buy, buy, and others say it is about to burst. I would very much appreciate an insightful analysis on the current condo phase of development. The observation that Thais prefer new housing, makes sense why some of the homes stay on the market for "ever" at prices that don't budge, but is that the only reason, to save face? ( I also liked the cash premise in my earlier post) I have a wonderful Thai wife, but RE investment isn't her interest above and beyond we buy it, or not. Sorry, for the long winded post and questions. I know some posters will just say whatever the market will bear is value, and that's true to a great degree but I would like to understand the underlying push/pull in the increased prices, so I can make a qualified decision/investment I won't regrete. I hope this is a purpose of this forum. I hope, to buy into the Base or Sansiri is a good catalist and on topic for this post. Thank you!

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 17, 2013, 2:41 am

Like anywhere else in the world, condos will be flipped as often as possible pre-completion and afterwards. Anyone who prefers and can afford them will live in them. There is no fixed "profile" condo dweller. Like most anywhere else, the majority will not be owner-occupied. My rule of thumb equation for a fair rental rate here in Thailand is something like:

Fair Rental = (Price per sqm/10) * 2

That puts Sansiri at about 14-16k b/month at the pre-flipped price before considering other factors like views, floor, amenities, etc. Only time will tell what will be the real rental rate. IMHO, Sansiri is priced for local "prestige" buyers/renters. A typical middle class Thai income currently starts at about 26k b/month per wage earner. So, that puts Sansiri just barely inside the affordability range for a newly minted single professional (at pre-flipped prices).

Although it might be historically true that Thais pay all cash, I don't think that is true anymore and hasn't been for at least the past decade. Banks will loan to a Thai with 30% down. Thais have gone bonkers with the ability to also finance that down payment. So, since "easy credit" has been made available to Thais, just like anywhere else (USA, hello?) there's a lot of speculation going on. If you get in early, you might be ok if the project is completed and there is demand, but you certainly don't want to be the one holding the bag post-completion when the bubble pops.

IMHO, I think there needs to be a significant increase in the number of middle-class wage earners and/or a significant influx of foreigners to support the planned rental condo market here. That means higher prices for most things all around town. The builders are much, much more informed than any of us, so buy pre-completion if you have faith in their research teams...

Post by **KHONDAHM** » June 17, 2013, 2:58 am

I should also add that developers' "real" target is 50% contracted. At 50% contracted, the project qualifies for a bank loan. Saying a project is 95% sold is akin to the marketing gimmick "Only 3 units left!". It may or may not be true. If it remains that way for more than a month, then it's probably NOT true...

Post by **writemotive** » June 17, 2013, 10:39 am

Thanks for the insightful comments!

Post by **trubrit** » July 12, 2013, 2:39 pm

There are many properties shown on here .http://homewithdream.com/2013/07/12/new ... siri-2013/

Post by **parrot** » August 27, 2013, 8:16 pm

Sansiri is planning to launch a second condo project in Udon. The 14 story, 570 unit project with underground parking is projected for a 4 rai piece of land on Prajak Rd. Sales are scheduled to begin in October 2556.
Company officials say the first Sansiri project in Udon, The Base, is 97% reserved.
https://www.facebook.com/OonSonUdon?dir ... arget_id=0
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthrea ... &page=2508

Post by **rct** » August 31, 2013, 7:45 pm

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... nstruction

Ooops, interesting article.

Post by **jackspratt** » August 31, 2013, 7:55 pm

rct wrote:http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... nstruction

Ooops, interesting article.

Be afraid......... be very afraid.

27 storeys/504 units, but the only unit affected is the poor guy who found foam as part of his structural walls.

Ya' couldn't make it up.

Post by **BigBubba** » August 31, 2013, 11:09 pm

jackspratt wrote:
rct wrote:http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... nstruction

Ooops, interesting article.
Be afraid......... be very afraid.

27 storeys/504 units, but the only unit affected is the poor guy who found foam as part of his structural walls.

Ya' couldn't make it up.

And what odds would the bookies give that this is the ONLY unit affected??? Just curious what floor it was... rough carrying bricks to the 14th floor on those bamboo ladders. Most important words to remember in Thailand... Caveat Emptor, and can be applied to almost everything!

Post by **KHONDAHM** » September 1, 2013, 7:20 am

So, the article doesn't describe the final resolution. Probably just pointed the finger at the mysterious contractor and patched up the mess in some other sub-standard way.

With this much publicity, one would think Sansiri would have enough public relations common sense to offer the unit owner a new place entirely. Ummm...but no...

Post by **glalt** » September 1, 2013, 8:51 am

Even IF I did trust the developer, there is no way I would pay that kind of money for a shoe-box. I would buy a house, and yes, I know the house would have to be in my wife's name. If the relationship were to go on the rocks, I likely wouldn't want to live alone in a house anyways. She could have it.

Post by **douglas** » September 1, 2013, 9:40 am

Hi,
The house can be in your name. It is the land that is hard, but possible, to put in your name. My house is in my name and I have got a 30 year lease on the land. The land is in wives name. I would not deposit the amount they were asking for, in a Thai. bank, and not be able to touch it. Plus the low interest rates over here, to have the land in my name.
As we are talking about condos non Thais. can own a certain percent of the building.