Baht What up with Dat?????

[bumper]

These days nine weeks is an enternity just watch the exchange rates.

[Nobby]

Hi Valiant
I assume you are coming from the UK from your comment, if so then i am not sure it will make a large amount of difference, simply because if you change Pounds to US dollars then the exchange between the two is at a 5 year low ie: 1.68 USD = 1 GBP. If you take Pounds then you will be hit by TB exchange rate.
That obviously is at current rates/conditions.

I will also be back in Udon in 7 weeks time so hopefully things may well get slightly better for us.

Regards

[arjay]

Valiant, - it's anybody's guess really. It also depends on what currency you are starting out with. If dollars I would stay in those. If pounds sterling, I think I would wait until you get here, as you will likely get a better rate here than you will in the UK. E.g, if the commercial rate is 56 to £1 then that's pretty much what you would get here, but if you change in the UK, the banks there will give you tourist rates which will likely be 2 to 3 baht below the rates here.

If you are in Euros already, then either stay in those or change to baht now.

I think we are all hoping and anticipating (and praying [-o< ) that the baht will eventually succumb and fall back!!

[aznyron]

think we are all hoping and anticipating (and praying ) that the baht will eventually succumb and fall back!!
Arjay I am with you 100% on that one I do feel your pain I am getting screwed also with the over valued baht. they can not play that game to much longer even high elected officials want to devalue the baht because it hurting the country my question is when is the F/M going to wake up she been sleeping at the wheel a little to long while the country export business is going in the toilet

[valiant]

Thank you for all the advice.I must sat that I find this site very useful for some one that intends to live there in Udon one day.I will bring my British Pounds and Nationwide Card.

[arjay]

Valiant, the best solution would have been to change them to baht about 9 months back. Or find a friend who has some baht he will sell you.

[spaul]

I should imagine every wealthy Thai is snapping up the GPB at fifty seven, it'll be interesting to see how long it takes them to dump it back at, well let's say sixty five (+15%)

[bumper]

I should imagine every wealthy Thai is snapping up the GPB at fifty seven, it'll be interesting to see how long it takes them to dump it back at, well let's say sixty five (+15%)

That statement is why you need to research the 97 crash. Not all Thai's were destitute when that finished up.

I have read that things are different but there are similarities as well.

ANZ Tarrrisa is the in Charge of the BOT,Thailands Central Bank. Her role is not growth it's inflation. If you go back through the years of this thread you will example aftr of example of part of the government not working or for that matter even communicationg with it's counterpart.

News articles in direct conflict on the same story released the same day.

Thats Thailand, it is simply not known for cooperation in between govenment departments.

Is it a problem of course it is. There are many unknowns here. That is common to Thai people not just the government. Example we are not going to make the ride this weekend, simply pushing the budget to hard, went two weekend in a row. Time to let the baht build again before the next one. Me I have no problem saying that. My wife on the other han came up with a million other reason when telling frinds we were not going. None of them lies, but none of them completly truthful either.

You see for her it's losing face to simple say I don't have enough money to do that. So shading the truth is the answer. Me being just the opposite I would lose face if i were caught at bending the truth. Thai people make up the governement expecting them to change themselves completly because that take office is highly unlikely.

So the end result of all this is no one that is trully familiar with Thailand can say what the complete truth is here, no one really knows. All know about there only little parts, but if any of those parts would cause them to lose face they will never tell anyone else.

Now that beiong said look back at our own home countries how many people really knew and never said a word. How many people were belittled when they did stand up. I would like to see things different, but I will hold my judgement until my own backyard is cleaned up.

At this juncture it appears Thailand is traveling a very dangerous road in many many ways. My guess is when the relaity hits here it is going to be a real hit. The way to avoid that is exactly what yuo see in other counties today you have to pull together. That is not the norm here.

[aznyron]

saving face wow I guess it OK to lie to save your face but the truth is once your caught in a lie your credibility is lost. I have no problem telling people the truth if I don't want them to know I tell them simply it a personal matter and I do not want to discuss it with you cut & dry no B/S as for the Bot
I see it has not moved up or down in a couple of days I was expecting it to get stronger this morning because wall street did not have a very good day yesterday. as for buying GBP if I had money I would buy them because the UK is like the USA it will bounce back so I will tell every one the truth in here I am broke I have no money to waste or gamble with and I did not lose any face to any one by telling them now that was so easy

[bumper]

Well most farrangs are the same as you, we are not Thai's they are. It's there way of living works for them. It's as common here as som tom.

[aznyron]

git there were I disagree with you it does not work for them not even with another thai once you lie your become a liar and your words are worthless but I am getting off topic I see the bot still at 34.10
let see what happens over the next few days if wall street moves in the right direction you will not see any change in the bot why because it high season and the week end is upon us the squeeze play is here
and they will squeeze every buck/pound/euro they can get before the end.

[Irish Alan]

Whoever is flying the €uroplane needs to pull harder on the stick... It's dropping like a flocking stone...

[cyclist]

Alan,

I'm a Brit, and I hear about the Thai Baht being propped up all the time and maybe its true to some extent. But I don't think we can blame our problems of the weak GBP on the Thai government. I think it has more to do with an American system which can allow this subprime debacle to happen and lead the world economy into recession.This together with a British goverment who during a time of boom has somehow managed to allow govenment borrowing to get totally out of control and thus weaken what was once a strong economy may be more to the point.

However I firmly believe that the GBP will come good again eventualy.

[bumper]

your right I'm sure the states held a gun to the rest of the worlds head or could it be there are greedy people everywhere. So back to the baht.

Asian Currencies: Won Sinks to Decade-Low, Taiwan Dollar Drops

By Anil Varma and Kim Kyoungwha

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies fell, led by South Korea's won and Taiwan's dollar, as the region's stocks extended a global equity rout.

The won declined to the lowest since 1998 on concern demand for the nation's assets and exports is dwindling amid a deepening global economic slump. Korea's economy probably grew at the weakest pace in four years last quarter, a Bloomberg survey showed. Nine of the 10 most-traded Asian currencies outside Japan declined today.

``Foreign stock sales are heavily weighing on the won,'' said Kim Yule, a currency dealer with BNP Paribas in Seoul. ``Traders are on the lookout for intervention but the won is set for further weakness as demand for dollars is so strong.''

The won fell 3.4 percent to 1,408.80 per dollar at the 3 p.m. close in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The Kospi stock index slumped 7.5 percent as overseas investors sold more shares than they bought for a seventh day, according to Korea Exchange. The won has lost 33.2 percent this year, making it Asia's worst performer.

Korea's gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, when it advanced 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will report the data tomorrow.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares dropped as much as 5.2 percent after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6.1 percent yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped 2.5 percent today.

Support for Housing

The dollar rose to the highest against the euro in almost two years on speculation the U.S. government will increase support for the housing market.

The currency advanced for a seventh day on bets the European Central Bank will favor interest-rate cuts to support the 15-nation economy. The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. may spend $40 billion to prevent more home foreclosures, citing a person familiar with the plan. The yen trimmed gains as U.S. stock futures climbed and Asian stocks pared losses.

``After this news came out, stock futures rose and the currency market went into reverse,'' said Motonari Ogawa, director of currency trading in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., a unit of the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``This is somewhat positive for the dollar.''

The U.S. currency touched $1.2728 per euro, the strongest since November 2006, before trading at $1.2824 versus $1.2855 late in New York yesterday. The dollar also traded at 97.59 yen from 97.66 yen.

Taiwan's dollar dropped for a seventh day on concern the island's electronics exports may shrink as global demand slows.

Slower Growth

The currency fell to a 17-month low as a government report today will show export orders rose last month at the slowest pace in more than six years, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Taiwan Premier Liu Chao Shiuan said yesterday his government will lower its 2009 economic growth forecast from 5.08 percent, without giving a new figure.

The Taiwan dollar is dropping ``because of the potential slump in the semiconductor industry and the fact that the Korean won has depreciated a lot,'' said Irene Cheung, a corporate director for local-markets trading at ABN Amro Bank NV in Singapore. ``As a big competitor in this industry, there is a need to catch up.''

The currency weakened as much as 1.3 percent to NT$33.408 against the U.S. dollar, the lowest level since May 2007, before trading at NT$33.29, according to Taipei Forex Inc.

Global funds sold more of the island's shares than they bought on all but one day this month as the benchmark Taiex index dropped 15 percent, according to stock exchange data.

Risk Premium

Malaysia's ringgit fell to its lowest in almost two years as the prospect of a global recession and concern Argentina will default encouraged investors to shun emerging-market assets.

The ringgit declined for a third day versus the dollar. Investors demanded 8.02 percentage points more than U.S. Treasury yields to buy emerging-market debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co's EMBI+ Index shows, the highest premium since November 2002.

``The risk has gone up with bond yields spiking since the start of this month and people are de-leveraging,'' said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, an economist in Sydney at Moody's Economy.com. ``That's driving the currency market.''

The ringgit slid as much as 0.9 percent to 3.5768 per dollar, the weakest since December 2006, before trading at 3.5715 in Kuala Lumpur.

Argentina Concerns

Economists at Deutsche Bank AG forecast the Group of Seven nations' economies will contract 1.1 percent next year, the most since the Great Depression. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said two days ago she plans to take over 10 private pension funds to protect retirees from turmoil in financial markets, fueling speculation the government needs the cash to meet debt payments.

India's rupee slid as much as 1.2 percent to 49.86 a dollar, an all-time low, while the Philippine peso touched 48.997, the weakest level since March 2007.

Elsewhere, the Thai baht fell 0.4 percent against the U.S. currency to 34.66 and the Singapore dollar dropped 0.1 percent to S$1.5015. The Indonesian rupiah slipped 0.1 percent to 9,985 and Vietnam's dong was unchanged at 16,850.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net; Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at 2309 or kkim19@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 23, 2008 04:38 EDT

[TJ]

The baht will continue to weaken against the US dollar as there is a global bias to believe in the historical economic strength of the US dollar. Everyone, including me, is trying to find a safe harbor for their assets.

I will move some dollars over to Thailand after the exhange rate improves a bit more.

IMO gold should rise in the near future once most of the hard-pressed banks and lenders have sold off their gold assets. Or after the US and other State governments have given them taxpayers' money and they have no need to sell their own valuable and appreciating gold.

[RALPHCUSENS]

Ironicle , is it not, the currency the led this crisis, is the only currency that is gaining in strength against all other currencies, (excepting the Yen)

Ron, I think its a conspiracy :-" :-" :-" :-" :-"

[Laan Yaa Mo]

The Thai baht also seems to be faring well.

As for the Canadian dollar, it is somewhere around 79 cents U.S., which is a remarkable drop from $1.10 U.S. a year ago.

The Canadian dollar has dropped from 34 baht in September to around 27.45 baht now (according to the baht rates on Thaivisa).

[bumper]

Now I have to be honest. safe haven surprises me to. I think what that really means is there are very few opions if any. I wonder if it was because it fallen so far already, there is room for it to increase?

The Canadian dollar surpised me so I checked it that is correct, thats is heartbreaking.

There is only one way that the baht could be holding like it is, That is a expensive undertaking.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Despite all of the good explanations about currency rates, it still is a bit mystifying to me. Perhaps economies and currencies will stablise a bit after the Presidential election in the United States, but maybe not because this is a global crisis.

Fortunately, I had the wherewithal to build up my Siam Commercial Banking account before the Canadian dollar fell, which makes me look good at the moment, but when the baht starts to fall....yikes!!! And those reserves will run out one day.

Nevertheless, I prefer thinking of retirement in Udon Thani as a pleasant alternative to Viang Chan in Laos, or anywhere in Cambodia or the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. Now, if Burma ever opens up....Loonie dives, then climbs back, in 'wild' session

Article Comments (88) VIRGINIA GALT

Globe and Mail Update

October 23, 2008 at 4:40 PM EDT

In what one economist described as “loonacy,” the Canadian dollar dove another cent in opening trading Thursday – hitting a four-year low of 78.48 cents (U.S.) at one point – before recovering to end the day nearly flat, at 79.64 on news that the federal government will temporarily guarantee inter-bank borrowing.

The loonie's morning dip came on the heels of a fall of 2.69 cents Wednesday – wiping out more than half of the ground that was gained “during the bull run between 2002 and 2007,” Steve Malyon, a currency strategist with the Bank of Nova Scotia, said in an interview. The dollar closed Wednesday at 79.70 cents.

“Proving yet again that the Canadian dollar has never met a global financial crisis it didn't want to join, the loonie has plunged into its most intense tailspin on record in the past month,” said Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter in coining the “loonacy” description.

The currency was down about 24 per cent year-over-year early Thursday and down almost 7 per cent from the end of last week – brought down by weakening commodity prices and the rising value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.


The value of the Canadian dollar fell again Thursday

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Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said at a news conference in Ottawa Thursday that the central bank is “watching developments in the foreign exchange market very closely.

“There has been extreme volatility …in foreign exchange markets for all currencies, it's not unique for the Canadian dollar.”

In its monetary policy report Thursday, the Bank of Canada said its projection through to the end of 2010 assumes that the Canadian dollar will average 85 cents, and that this could benefit Canadian manufacturers who ship to export markets.

“The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar will provide an important offset to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices,” Mr. Carney said after releasing a report projecting that the Canadian economy will shrink at a 0.4 per cent annual pace in the fourth quarter of this year and show zero growth in the first quarter of next year before picking up steam.

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce noted that the U.S. dollar continues to dominate the market “as a safe haven” in light of the volatility of stock markets around the world. This has depreciated other currencies to the extent that the governments of Mexico and Brazil took measures Thursday to prop up their currencies.

However, Chicago-based currency strategist Andrew Busch suggested Thursday that the U.S. dollar's rally against other currencies might be losing momentum.

“With New Zealand cutting rates 100 basis points and Canada providing a backstop for their banks, the greenback is giving back gains after a wild opening to currency markets,” Mr. Busch of the Bank of Montreal said in a note to clients.

“The strong buck is overdone for now and we should see a U.S. dollar selloff as stocks stabilize.” Mr. Busch wrote.

Like other currencies, the loonie has been sinking as the U.S. dollar has gained in the midst of spreading concerns about the credit crisis and the potential depth of a recession.

“The Canadian dollar is clearly being caught in the vortex that is sucking in almost everything that isn't bolted down,” Mr. Porter said.

A number of economists agreed with Mr. Carney that a lower currency can boost the country's economic fortunes by spurring exports.

But the currency advantage is not much benefit to Canadian producers if export markets dry up, Mr. Malyon said in an interview.

“We're a major exporter of motor vehicles, parts and forest products, and when I look at U.S. vehicle sales and I look at U.S. housing, it is difficult to be too optimistic,” Mr. Malyon said.

He said he believes that concerns about the global credit crunch are easing somewhat, and that the Canadian dollar is dropping as attention turns to “the fundamentals – and these are very grim on a global scale, and we're seeing that reflected in commodity prices.”

The price of oil has fallen from $147 a barrel in July to less than $69 on Thursday. The decline has caused major oil companies to rethink their exploration and development plans in Canada. On Thursday, oil patch giant Suncor Energy Inc. reported that it has slashed its 2009 capital spending budget by one-third to $6-billion (Canadian).

“That's a concern as well,” Mr. Malyon said. “We're close to sort of the break-even level that makes new oil sands investments uneconomic, so that's a concern in terms of business investments in the next several quarters.”

Mr. Porter said Canadian consumers stand the most to lose from the abrupt drop in the value of the Canadian dollar over the past month.

“The loonie-related price discounts on a wide variety of consumer items will now be a thing of the past, and some items may actually see price increases,” Mr. Porter said[/color]

[bumper]

I think the BOT is really counting on this proposal.

From: TOC

Thailand to Propose Funds Plan at Asean+3 Meeting
UPDATE : 23 October 2008

Thailand will propose the establishment of a 350 billion dollar fund to tackle the world's financial crisis, at the ASEAN Plus Three meeting.

Finance Minister Suchart has revealed that the establishment of the 350 billion dollar fund, which will be proposed at the ASEAN Plus Three Summit, is a similar idea to the International Money Fund, widely known as IMF.

The new fund will act as a reserve for Asian countries when they face a shortage of short-term money. The fund can also be a source of money for economic development in the region.

The finance minister added that the U.S. financial crisis is likely to continue to slow the global economy throughout next year. He stated that the six economic stimulus measures, which will expire January 2009, may be reused again depending on the economic situation at that time.

The Asean Plus Three countries which include Japan, China, and South Korea are scheduled to have a group discussion on October 25 at the 7th Asia-Europe meeting in Beijing.

Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaiprawat, as Thailand's representative, will propose that countries in the group allocate 150 billion US dollars for protecting currencies and 200 billion US dollars for purchasing shares and bonds.

The money to be put into the funds would come from 10 percent of foreign reserves from each country in the Asean Plus Three group.