Baht What up with Dat?????

[bumper]

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/for ... une/3.html

This may be why they are fighing so hard to hold the baht value and something I had not thought about.


Apparently the depreciation of the Thai Baht triggered the 97 crash

So fear of a repeat might be the driving force behind what we see

[aznyron]

Git I see the bot moved to 34.75 after being stalled at 34.64 I also heard % rates are going to change on the first of december which should have some impact on weaken the thai baht [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o<

[bumper]

Bangkok Bank this morning ATM I got 34.96

[laphanphon]

But. it may been the IMF

It was the IMF, and the people paid back more than the gov't, via donations to wats, organized by our economic expect abbott of Wat Pa Ban Tad, which actually the wats collected way too much money, and even before finally paid off, toxin tried to put those funds into general budget, much to the disapproval, which resulted in a mass protest and funds place back into IMF account, which was paid off early. which helped the baht recover much faster. that issue and couple others, put Luang Maha Bua and toxin at odds with each other, as the abbott was instrumental on getting him elected the 1st time, then turned against him afterwards, as apparently promises weren't kept. so Sonchi and abbott formed alliance against toxin. that and pissing of Prem of royals.............and the rest is history.

on the money borrowing issue, well, the USA is giving away the bank on good rates, they would be fools not to take it, almost free money, if they pay it back. can't blame them, USA, shooting themselves in the foot again, again, again.....................

[bumper]

Interesting history thanks LA, =D>

Got to admit it's hard to be nored here

[TJ]

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/for ... une/3.html

This may be why they are fighing so hard to hold the baht value and something I had not thought about.

Apparently the depreciation of the Thai Baht triggered the 97 crash

So fear of a repeat might be the driving force behind what we see

If anyone is interested, here's a more detailed description of the cause of the 97 Southeastern Asia crash:

...there were two factors at work that led to the collapse in the Asian markets and recession. First, overinvestment, and second, the strength of the U.S. dollar.

First, it is clear that most of the Southeast Asian economies, including Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea, suffered from overinvestment, or what Ludwig von Mises called “malinvestment.” The authoritarian regimes engaged in a “forced savings” program, demanding its citizens and businesses to overinvest. When voluntary savings were deemed insufficient to build up the nation’s infrastructure and capital formation, the state promoted industrial planning. Moreover, it created cheap credit policies and encouraged foreign investment at low interest rates. In sum, Southeast Asia created a classic inflationary boom.

The Austrian school has warned time and time again that an inflationary boom in capital investment not only causes prices to rise, but also makes unsustainable projects look attractive. Eventually, interest rates must rise and the economy is hit by a recession.

Most of the Southeast Asian currencies were tied to the dollar, and that was their demise. In some ways, it reminds me of the specie-flow mechanism under the gold standard. Under a classic gold standard, when a nation inflates, gold flows out of the inflationary country, forcing the economy to contract. That’s more or less what happened in Southeast Asia, except that instead of gold, the standard was the U.S. dollar.

When the dollar rose 30 percent against the other major currencies, Southeast Asian economies that were export-oriented and linked to the dollar, were placed at a disadvantage. Their exports suddenly became 30 percent more expensive, and demand for their goods declined. Exports dropped, profits fell, and debts couldn’t be repaid at current exchange rates. Consequently, their governments were forced to delink from the dollar and their currencies collapsed. The boom turned into a bust.http://www.fee.org/Publications/the-Fre ... p?aid=3359

[bumper]

So at least to some degree still tied to the dollar.

In theory more stable this time around, but recognizing the need to maintain strength in their curreny Baht. Am I close?

But, going the next step although they are approaching it in a different way. Does anyone really know what the effect is going to be in the end?

I read a book on the 97 crash written in Thailand been so long ago I cant even remeber the name of it. Beyond the aspect that you metioned there was also a huge problem, with people taking money out of the country in a lot cases where the money wasn't theirs in the first place. Bankers leaving with the banks assets. A lot of Thai's came out of that very rich. Some went belly up but had access to the right circles and today are very rich.

The book went into individual stories and named names but I can't even remeber the title so I'm not going there. What stood out in my mind was that large sums of money were taken out of teh country when it needed the most. But, that's life.

[bumper]

Asian Currencies Fall, Led by Won at Decade Low, on Growth Woes

By Kim Kyoungwha and Judy Chen

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies fell, led by South Korea's won at a decade low, as stocks slid on concern the global economic slump is deepening.

The won extended its decline to 37 percent this year, the worst performance of the 10 most-active currencies in Asia outside Japan. Nine of those currencies weakened today after Japan said exports fell the most in almost seven years last month, and Mazda Motor Corp. and Isuzu Motors Ltd. said they will cut temporary jobs.

``Souring sentiment toward global growth and the increasing threat of deflation is mainly to blame,'' said Emmanuel Ng, a currency strategist with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. ``Asian currencies are weighed by the prospect of slowing growth, with Japan's trade deficit this morning a sobering wakeup call.''

Korea's currency declined to 1,523 per dollar before trading 3.4 percent weaker from yesterday at 1,497 at the 3 p.m. close, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The Indian rupee touched an all-time low of 50.5925 and Malaysia's ringgit dropped to a two-year low of 3.6305 before trading at 3.6255 a dollar.

Consumer prices in the U.S. last month fell by the most on record, signaling deflation, or a prolonged price slide. Federal Reserve policy makers at their meeting Oct. 28-29 predicted the U.S. economy will shrink through the middle of 2009, according to minutes released yesterday.

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region may quicken in 2009 at less than half the pace of the previous two years as the U.S. economy contracts, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council said today.

Exports Slump

Overseas investors pulled $37.6 billion out of Korean equities this year as the Kospi stock index slumped 50 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index is headed for its first annual loss since 2002.

``The foreign-exchange market is simply kneeling to any negative news from the outside world,'' said Lee Myung Hoon, a currency dealer with state-run Industrial Bank of Korea in Seoul. ``The local markets are not in a situation that they can easily shake off the risk from global markets.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks slid 5 percent, extending this week's loss to 9.5 percent, after Japan said exports, the main engine of the nation's growth for the past six years, fell 7.7 percent from a year earlier in October, the most since December 2001.

Imports climbed 7.4 percent, causing a trade deficit of 63.9 billion yen ($666 million), the third shortfall this year.

The yen traded at 95.28 per dollar in Tokyo from 95.73 late yesterday in New York. It was at 119.11 per euro from 119.55.

`Keep Dollars'

Japan's economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the three months ended Sept. 30, joining the U.S. and Europe in recession, as businesses cut spending. Growth in China, Japan's largest trading partner, slowed for four quarters.

``The economic situation in the U.S. is causing a drop in risk appetite,'' said Hideki Hayashi, an economist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The nervous situation means more people are going to keep U.S. dollars and that will have an impact on Asian stocks and currencies.''

Indonesia's rupiah declined as much as 2.3 percent to 12,475 a dollar, the weakest since August 1998, before trading at 12,400. The benchmark Jakarta Composite share index dropped 3 percent today, set for the worst finish in three weeks.

The Thai baht dropped as much as 0.4 percent to 35.17 a dollar, the lowest in 20 months, after Agence France-Presse said that a bomb blast at a government compound in Bangkok occupied by protesters killed at least one activist and wounded 21. Elsewhere, the Philippine peso fell 0.2 percent to 49.978 in Manila and Taiwan's dollar dropped 0.4 percent to NT$33.405. Singapore dollar was little changed at S$1.5287. Vietnam's dong climbed 0.07 percent to 16,966.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net; Judy Chen in Shanghai at xchen45@bloomberg.net.

[aznyron]

Git with a big surge of 500 points in the US market and Sundays political rally in Bangkok
maybe Tuesday morning we will see a good boost in the USD against the bot. because they are not going to weaken the bot over the week end only move bot when it gains to there advantage

[aznyron]

Git well it started early I just read 8 protestors were injured this is not the way I want to see the baht get weak but it does tell me that the FM is playing games with it and refuses to weaken the baht even
at the expense of losing exports around the world like you said now time is on our side

[Aardvark]

I hope your dollar does'nt get down to twenty like ours is today Ron xmas looks a bit bleak at the moment

[polehawk]

US expats are happy campers, for now anyway:

Exchange rates >>
Baht/$ 35.19/24 (Bid/Ask)

http://www.bangkokpost.com/
Saturday November 22, 2008

[bumper]

Not as happy a I was when it wa 42, Guy' feel for you this isn't fun. I think the change will really come from Thailand not our home currencies.

[laphanphon]

change will really come from Thailand not our home currencies.

i can see the dollar getting weaker, as there will be nothing but bad news for quite some time, but, should be offset by the same here, and with a little luck, baht might self destruct, a bit at least, as it's been propped up too long already. you can only hide it for so long. now borrowing a billion from usa, that can't go over well. and the politics, lack of tourist, all starting to add up. above 35 is good, 40 is better

[aznyron]

LA the dollar is getting stronger wall st. is getting a new treasury secretary and maybe Ben Benacke
will be replaced by the new President. The moment the news about the new T/S wall street gained 500 points this was friday let see what monday brings and watch thai baht tuesday morning. if wall street has another good day the bot has to weaken to the USD. but I go along with Git I think it has to come from inside thailand and it has to crash then and only then will they wake up they are trying to hard to keep the bot strong with phony lies and B/S but it will burn there azz big time the joke is it better for business in thailand if the bot is weak exports will grow and thailand does very little imports if I was to guess I would
say it 85% export & 15% import and it only the wealthy thais & expats who buy the imports to expensive for the factory worker to buy JMO

[laphanphon]

the dollar is getting stronger

definitely got to disagree with that one. doesn't matter who is in charge, it's a mess. housing stalled, auto making stalled, major domino effect there, unemployment, highest in years, and can only get worst, that domino effect again, with extensions added to compensation payments, small amount, but more deficit. 1 billion added to deficit last month, that is going to be a total waste, along with a lot of added taxes to compensate. no new taxes, heard that before, right. Iraq security pact agreed on, stuck there for couple more years, no way around it, billions more wasted, or does that mean time to buy some Halliburton stock. it's a mess, why anyone would want that job, at this time, is nuts.

hope i'm wrong and this guy can pull that rabbit out of his arse, but doubtful. all this, without any new wrenches thrown in, it's an up hill battle, which they are losing fast.

[laphanphon]

I'm far from an expert, and know bonds are sold all the time to raise funds, but this can't be exactly good news. seems lot of people looking for some liquidity.

BANGKOK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Following is a list of expected

corporate bond issues in Thailand. This information has been compiled from various reports.

Not all the companies concerned have confirmed details of the

issues. New or adjusted entries are marked '**'.

The Thai leasing unit of Toyota Motor Corp (nyse: TM - news - people ) set a coupon rate of 4.11 percent for a two-year bond issue worth up to

1.2 billion baht ($34 million).

For details, click on.

-- Bank of Ayudhya, Thailand's fifth largest lender,

set a coupon of 5.10 percent on a three-year bond issue of up to

10 billion baht. The bonds will be offered to institutional

investors and the public from Nov. 19 to Dec. 1.

For details, click on.

-- Do-it-yourself retailer Home Product Center

plans to sell a three-year bond worth up to 700 million baht,

carrying a coupon of 5.50 percent.

-- Thai hospital firm Bangkok Dusit Medical Service

plans to buy back $124 million in convertible bonds due for

redemption in 2011.

-- Coal miner Banpu has cancelled plans sell about

5 billion baht of three-year bonds due to unfavourable market

conditions.

-- Tuna exporter Thai Union Frozen has set a coupon

of 5.5 percent on a bond issue of 500 million baht ($14 million)

that will be used for debt financing and expansion.

For details, click on.

-- Thanachart Capital plans to sell 4 billion baht

of bonds to finance its expansion plans.

-- Khon Kaen Sugar Industry has scaled back a bond

issue to 1.5 billion baht from 2 billion baht as it adjusts

financing plans due to the global credit crisis.

For details, click on.


BY END 2008

-- PTT Chemical (PTTCH), Thailand's largest olefins

maker, has set coupons on bonds worth up to 10 billion baht to be

sold in December.

The five-year bonds would offer a coupon of 5.30 percent in

the first three years and a 6.0 percent coupon for the fourth and

fifth years.

The seven-year tranche would carry a coupon of 5.30 percent

in the first three years, and 6.0 percent for the fourth and

fifth years, while the sixth and seventh years would have a

coupon of 6.45 percent. For details, click on.

-- Property Perfect plans to sell 500 million baht of

bonds to help refinance debt.

-- Retail finance firm AEON Thana Sinsap plans to

sell up to 3 billion baht of securitised bonds for expansion.

For details, click on.

-- Hemraj Land and Development plans to sell 2-3

billion baht of 35-year bonds to finance business expansion.

-- State-owned Export-Import Bank of Thailand plans to sell 5

billion baht of bonds to expand its lending business.

For details, click on.

-- Ticon Industrial Connection plans to sell bonds

worth up to one billion baht to pay dividends.

-- Asia Plus Securities plans to sell up to one

billion baht of bonds to finance expansion plans.

-- Bangkok Chain Hospital plans to sell up to 3

billion baht of up to 10-year bonds.

-- Uniq Engineering plans to sell up to 3 billion

baht of up to five-year bonds to fund expansion plans.

-- Sino Thai Engineering plans to sell 1 billion

baht of bonds to finance its expansion plans.

-- PTT Aromatics plans to sell bonds worth up to

$500 million over five years to 2012 to refinance debt and fund

expansion. The bonds will have maturities of up to 15 years.

For details, click on.

2009

-- Preuksa Real Estate plans to sell bonds worth

1.0-1.5 billion baht in the first quarter of 2009 for debt

refinancing and expansion.


ISSUE DATE NOT YET SPECIFIED

** Esso (Thailand), a unit of Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people )

plans to sell up to 8 billion baht of bills for working capital.

-- Advanced Info Service plans to sell bonds to

refinance 6.9 billion baht in debt due for redemption next year.

-- Thai Tap Water plans to sell bonds or bills of

exchange to finance capacity expansion and repay debt.

For details, click on.

-- Tisco Bank has delayed a bond issue worth

1.0-1.5 billion baht from the fourth quarter of 2008 due to weak

market conditions.

For details, click on.

-- Minor International, Thailand's biggest listed

hotelier and fast food franchise firm, has delayed indefinitely a

bond issue of up to 1.5 billion baht planned for October, citing

the global credit crisis.

-- Major Development plans to sell up to 1.5 billion

baht of bonds with a maximum maturity of five years.

-- TMB Bank, Thailand's fifth-largest bank, plans to

sell up to $2 billion of bonds to fund expansion plans.

-- Indorama Polymers, Thailand's biggest

polyethylene terephthalate polymers maker, plans to sell up to 4

billion baht of bonds to finance an expansion programme.

-- G Steel, a maker of hot-rolled steel coil, plans

to sell up to $300 million of bonds to refinance debt.

For details, click on.

-- Hotel operator Grand Asset Development plans to

sell up to 12 billion baht of 2-year bonds to fund expansion.

For details, click on.

-- Electricity Generating plans to sell up to 20

billion baht of bonds for expansion plans and debt refinancing.

For details, click on.

-- Property developer Sansiri is to sell up to 3

billion baht of up to 10-year bonds for working capital.

-- Nava Leasing plans to issue 2 billion baht of

bonds to finance its expansion plans.

To include items in this diary, please phone Bangkok Newsroom

(662) 648-9729, or send a fax to (66) 2637-5620/1.

($1=35.25 Baht)

(Compiled by Orathai Sriring)

* For related data and news, please click on the symbol: Thai debt news...................... Reuters credit reports.......................... Real-time Thailand benchmark............... Thai treasury data by contributors......... Thai baht fixing rates.................... Keywords: THAILAND BOND/CALENDAR 2

(orathai.sriring@reuters.com; +662 648 9729; Reuters Messaging: orathai.sriring.reuters.com@reuters.net)
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http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/fe ... ml#comment

[bumper]

In other words they didn't have the funding they have been saying that had all this time.

Now me I'm going to run out and buy me much a bunch of those bonds as soon I'm finished eating this bar of soap, forced by real words with Citi Group adn this silliness.

Yep I bet investors want to invest in Country who can't even hold a Government meeting.

But, at the moment really hard to fault Thailand anymore then my home country.

[bumper]

Sorry not just protests cauing this:

Thai Economic Growth May Stall as Protests Obstruct Lawmakers

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Rattaphol Onsanit

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s economy may grow at the slowest pace in at least eight years in 2009 as a global recession cools exports and political protesters disrupt parliament, stopping lawmakers from implementing spending plans.

“Growth may go below 3 percent next year if the government can’t function properly,” said Ampon Kittiampon, secretary- general of the government’s economic advisory board. “We need the government to run at full speed if we want to survive.”

Thousands of protesters surrounded parliament today, prompting lawmakers to abandon their session and adding to pressure that has hampered the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy by increasing spending. The central bank may lower interest rates next week as companies from Thai Airways Pcl to General Motors Corp. consider cutting jobs to reduce costs.

“Political wrangling between the government and the demonstrators is going to distract policy makers from implementing effective stimulus measures needed to pull Thailand through this global economic slowdown,” said Nicole Sze, a Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion in assets. She advises investors to shun Thailand in favor of Singapore and Hong Kong.

The SET Index of stocks fell 1.6 percent as of 11:45 a.m. in Bangkok and is on course for its worst year since the 1997 financial crisis. The baht slid for a fifth day and is trading at its weakest against the dollar in 21 months as exports and tourist arrivals slow and foreign investors sell the nation’s assets. Consumer confidence is at the lowest level in a year.

Escalating Violence

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded by 4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest quarterly pace in almost eight years as the increasingly violent political protests quashed consumer confidence and investment. Growth was estimated to be 4.3 percent, according to the median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“The lower-than-expected number signals the possibility of an accelerating slowdown,” said Usara Wilaipich, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Bangkok. “Exports will be hurt by the global economy while consumer confidence and investment will probably weaken because of political uncertainty in Thailand.”

With a “functioning government,” Thailand’s economy may expand as little as 3 percent next year, Ampon, head of the National Economic and Social Development Board, said today. That would be the slowest pace since a 2.2 percent rate in 2001 and less than the central bank’s lowest estimate of 3.8 percent.

‘Force Government Out’

“We must force this government out,” said Sirichai Mai- Ngam of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, in an interview with Business Radio this morning. Around 1,500 police are deployed at parliament, government spokesman Nattawut Saikuar said. Military assistance can be called for if needed, he added, estimating the number of protesters at 20,000.

Lawmakers canceled today’s parliamentary session to avoid confrontation and the protesters extended their rallies in Bangkok to the Ministry of Finance and police headquarters. Two people died and more than 470 were injured when police fired tear gas to disperse protesters when they blockaded parliament on Oct. 7.

“The PAD may try to spark unrest, which could force the government to step down,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

‘Getting Worse’

“The political situation is getting worse and could drag on for a while,” said Han Sia Yeo, a currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Singapore. “The question on growth is how deep the slowdown will be and focus now has shifted to the Bank of Thailand cutting rates as early as the next meeting.”

The central bank should consider cutting its interest rate from a 19-month high of 3.75 percent because risks to economic growth have overtaken inflation concerns, Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn said Nov. 11. Policy makers next meet on Dec. 3 to decide on borrowing costs.

“We are expecting a rate cut and we are expecting rates to be cut over the coming quarters,” said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc.

Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimate growth of 3 percent in 2009. GDP will expand no more than 4.5 percent this year, the board predicted today.

Cutting Taxes

The government has cut taxes, increased state-controlled bank lending, waived some of the cheapest public transport fares, exempted low-use households from some utility charges, and plans increased spending to spur consumption. More tax reductions will be implemented by December, Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvej said today.

“We don’t know how effective the budget disbursement will be,” said Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at Phatra Securities Pcl in Bangkok. “It will take some time to get into the economy.”

GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, when it grew a revised 0.8 percent, according to today’s statement. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 0.4 percent expansion.

Thailand’s exports, which account for about 70 percent of GDP, rose 25.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing from the previous three months’ 26.3 percent pace, and tourist arrivals fell 1.7 percent, according to the central bank. Singapore, South Korea and Australia warn against non- essential travel to Thailand because of political protests.

Bomb Attacks

Eight anti-government protesters were injured in a pre-dawn bomb attack at a checkpoint near Government House on Nov. 22, leaving one in critical condition. It was the second incident in three days, after a Nov. 20 grenade blast at the compound, occupied by protesters since Aug. 26, killed one activist and injured 23.

General Motors will cut 8 percent of its Thai workforce and halt production for a month from mid-December, the largest U.S. automaker said Nov. 20. About 70 percent of its Thai output is exported.

Thai Air, the nation’s biggest carrier, said Oct. 8 that it may eliminate jobs and flights as passenger traffic slides. Kasikornbank Pcl, Thailand’s No. 4 lender by assets, expects 2009 loan growth to be the least in four years.

Private consumption rose 2.6 percent from a year earlier in the quarter, after gaining a revised 2.5 percent in the second quarter. Total investment in the third quarter increased 0.6 percent from a year earlier, slowing from 1.9 percent in the previous three months. Manufacturing expanded 4 percent, from a revised 5.3 percent pace in the previous three months.

Disrupting Government

Bangkok-based protesters say they plan to step up efforts to disrupt the government until it falls after a Nov. 20 grenade explosion killed one activist and injured 19 others. At least five people have died as a result of the protests since August.

The group, which comprises many middle-class Bangkok residents and receives support from the country’s royalist elite, accuses the ruling party of buying votes to win elections and opposes former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup.

The Bangkok-based anti-government group spearheaded protests that preceded a September 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin. The ruling People Power Party, led by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law, won last December’s election on heavy support from farmers in northeast Thailand, the country’s poorest region. It faces dissolution along with two coalition partners amid the allegations of vote buying.

The government aims to amend the constitution, which was drafted by the military after the coup and passed in a referendum last year while half of the country was under martial law.

To contact the reporters on this story: Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at suttinee1@bloomberg.net; Rattaphol Onsanit in Bangkok at ronsanit@blooomberg.net

Last Updated: November 24, 2008 00:30 EST

[aznyron]

Git what your input I value what you say you are the only one I see who is staying on top of this
thank you Ron / Jun