Baht What up with Dat?????

[Aardvark]

And this from the Bkk Post.....http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/eco ... y-persists

[bumper]

Kind of goes against Tarrisas statements that foriegn inflows were not effecting the baht. Supports the article in Bloomberg. Gee who to believe

Unless something else happens I think this may be a short term gain for us. But, every little bit helps these days. I was amazed at watching the baht movement in that 24 hours. Does indicate just how fast it can go, when things go wrong.

The guys who did the work on my house are still looking for work, so the gain in Thailand didn't seem to be gettign down to the consumer level I.E. the real economy here in Udon.

[JimboPSM]

...... Gee who to believe

I have the same problem - there are far too many statements that I read that simply do not stack up and make sense when compared with other information available in the market place – these days if I can’t verify something I automatically have reservations about how accurate it is until I can.

Although not perfect, the data information sources from the US Government and its departments are about the best I have come across – it’s a great pity the media and politicians that do bother to access these sources tend only to cherry pick the information to further their own (and their paymasters) self-serving agendas rather than those who they are actually elected to serve.

Other countries would do well to copy the US Government information model.

[aznyron]

Jimbo I am happy to read your post about getting the TRUTH from thai news or thai Government
I have been saying that for some time I do not believe any thing that comes from Thai newspaper TV or Government officials as well as Thai banks to me they are all Full of crap & when they open there mouth more of it comes out and they think that more important than saving face what a bunch of F**** idiots
well I am happy to read & hear the baht is losing ground regardless what the reason are AMEN

[bumper]

CURRENCY
Baht depreciates after stock sell-offs
By THE NATION
Published on October 16, 2009


Despite the Bank of Thailand's intervention to maintain stability, the baht yesterday bucked the trend of regional currencies by depreciating following a sell-off by foreign investors, said bank dealers.
The unit will likely remain highly volatile between 33 and 33.60 to the US dollar next week, said one dealer.


The baht gained in early-morning trade yesterday after dropping the most in four months on Wednesday following rumours - which were denied - that shook the stock market and the currency. The currency advanced 0.1 per cent as of 10am yesterday to 33.38 to the dollar.


However, it plunged in the afternoon after foreign investors continued to tell Thai shares late in the day.


The main stock index tumbled 8.3 per cent at one point yesterday, while the baht depreciated 0.4 per cent to 33.55 to the dollar and reached its weakest level since September 30 at 33.59, Bloomberg reported.


The currency closed at 33.50, while the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed down 5.3 per cent - the biggest one-day loss this year - at 692.72 points.


A Bangkok Bank dealer said the baht had depreciated from its Wednesday level due mainly to the foreign net selling of Thai stocks. In addition, better-than-expected corporate earnings in the third quarter encouraged investors to sell local stocks and the baht for dollars before taking their profits back abroad.


"The baht has been highly volatile, moving 20 satang today with the heavy buying of dollars by foreign investors. It was also affected by recent rumours in Thailand," the dealer added.


A CIMB Bank (Thai) dealer said the central bank had intervened in the market yesterday morning in order to stem the baht's volatility. However, it failed to reverse the selling pressure by foreign investors.


He predicted the currency would continue to depreciate this week, bucking the trend of appreciating regional Asian currencies. However, once the negative factors on the SET subside, the baht will likely become stronger in line with regional currencies, he said.


He said it was quite difficult to foresee the baht's trend at the moment, as it was still highly volatile and likely to hover between 33 and 33.60 to the dollar.


SCBS Investment Research said the baht was likely to remain strong over the next year, as the Bank of Thailand would likely work to keep its appreciation on a par with trading competitors, particular neighbouring countries that export similar products to the US.


"Both international reserves and outstanding bond numbers lead us to believe the Bank of Thailand is intervening in the exchange rate while capital inflows continue to flood the Thai economy," SCBS said in a research paper released recently.


Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported Asian currencies rose yesterday, led by Indonesia's rupiah and the South Korean won, as near-zero interest rates in the US prompted investors to shun dollars in favour of higher-yielding assets amid a global economic recovery.


The rupiah, won, ringgit and Indian rupee all climbed to their strongest levels in more than a year after US Federal Reserve minutes just released reinforced speculation dollars would remain in plentiful supply and that US rate increases remained some way off.


That encourages investors to seek cheap financing in the US to invest elsewhere where interest rates are higher, using so-called carry trades.


"The ongoing US-dollar carry trade is alive and kicking, which is pushing capital inflows into the region," said Rajeev Malik, an economist with the Macquarie Group in Singapore.


"At the same time, we're seeing improving growth in the region. All of that's going to ensure Asian currencies will strengthen."


The rupiah climbed 0.4 per cent to 9,330 to the dollar as of 4pm in Jakarta. It earlier touched 9,280, the strongest since September 2008. The won rose 0.8 per cent to 1,155.15, the ringgit 0.4 per cent to 3.3605 and the rupee 0.4 per cent to 45.95.


Poj Aramwattananont, an honorary adviser to the Thai Frozen Foods Association, said the central bank should make the baht's strength an urgent agenda item; otherwise, the Kingdom's exports in the current quarter and early next year would shrink by more than expected.


"The stronger-baht issue will seriously blunt the country's export competitiveness, particularly in shrimp exports," he said, adding that Thailand would lose export markets to rivals like Indonesia, Vietnam and India, as their exchange rates were weaker than the baht.


He said the government should put the exchange rate at the top of its top agenda rather than ask exporters to undertake risk-insurance management.


Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Trade, said the baht's dramatic overnight swing against the greenback would lead to a serious export problem.


"The only thing businessmen can do is concentrate on hedge management," he said.


Vallop Vitanakorn, secretary-general of Thai Garment Manufacturers Association, said every Bt1 appreciation would cause business losses of 3 per cent. The industry generates foreign-exchange income at an average of US$4 billion (Bt134 billion) per year.


Exporters are worried about quoting for orders in advance, as the fluctuating baht makes it very difficult to do so.


Vallop added that small exporters would face serious problems over hedge management, as they had lower financial credit than bigger companies.

[bumper]

I have to agree Thailand has already lost it's competitiveness, the harm was already done months ago.

BoT: Stronger baht will not decrease competitiveness
BANGKOK, 22 October 2009 (NNT) – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) confirms the baht appreciation will not affect Thailand’s competitiveness.

According to Monetary Policy Committee Member Chakramon Phasukavanich, the BoT had appropriately controlled the Thai baht. He said the central bank could not manipulate the currency for the export sector in order to avoid compromising the country’s economic stability.

At the same time, BoT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said the strengthening of the baht this month was a continuation of the appreciation at the beginning of the year. Mr Paiboon explained further that the appreciation of the Thai baht had resulted from the depreciation of the US dollar compared to other currencies.

From the beginning of the year to the 3rd quarter, the baht appreciated by 2.5% compared to the US dollar but depreciated 1% compared to 21 trading partners and competitors. The central bank executive said the currency had not lost its competitiveness.

Mr Paiboon added that the BoT would regulate the currency only if its values significantly affected the export and import sectors.


News ID: 255210220020

Reporter : Sarun Saelee
News Date : 22 October

[TJ]

Paper money can be printed with no cost to the politicians. My fear is that the U.S. paper currency is a rapidly-declining asset and soon people will be driven to convert it to something of tangible worth, such as hard assets. The results will be that prices of raw materials and hard assets will rise in an inflationary environment.

[bumper]

The baht seems to have stayed for the mosr part of last week at in the 33.40 range. The Pound and Euro went up, did you guys see a corresponding cahne in the baht rate?

[JimboPSM]

Good news, bad news or just plain confusing news?

While most of the world currencies gained on the USD following the issue of the US Q3 GDP figures the movement of the THB against the USD barely registered a ripple.

If the BoT really wanted the THB to appreciate further against the USD it was a great opportunity missed - all they had to do was let the THB follow the world markets.

Note, while the USD might have fallen on the Q3 GDP news the US stock markets all rose substantially - over the last few days the fairly strong inverse correlation between the value of the USD and the stock markets has been the subject of increasing comment by economic and financial commentators.

[bumper]

I think the set a new range 33.40 or so.

[bumper]

BOT chief affirms competitiveness despite stronger baht
BANGKOK, Nov 21 (TNA) – Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Tarisa Watanagase on Friday affirmed that the current baht level had not made the country lose its export competitiveness.

Since early this year, she said, the baht had appreciated by an average of 4 per cent close to that of many other currencies in Asia, which had strengthened by 3-4 per cent.

Some Asian currencies such as the Korean won had appreciated sharply by 10-20 per cent.

She emphasised that the baht movement at the current level had not made Thailand lose its export competitiveness.

Commenting on the ongoing tension between Thailand and Cambodia, Mrs. Tarisa said the diplomatic situation had not yet impacted the overall economy because border trade remained normal.

Mrs Tarisa said that Thai commercial bank branches in Cambodia remained open for service as usual.

The tension had not yet affected the business sector because it is a matter of political actions facing the governments of both countries.

The Bank of Thailand governor expressed hope that the situation will return to normal soon. (TNA)

[bumper]

Anyone see any surprises in this? But, note nothing is below 29 maybe that was the bottom

UTCC: Baht may appreciate further
Published: 26/11/2009 at 04:01 PM
Online news: Breakingnews

The Thai baht can be expected to strengthen to 32 baht per US dollar before the end of this year, University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) director Thanawat Polvichai said on Thursday.

"The Thai currency could even appreciate to about 31 baht by year's end because the dollar is still weakening under US President Barack Obama's policy to solve the economic problems in his country," Mr Thanawat said.

He said the baht's value in 2010 would likely strengthen by approximately three to five per cent from this year, but it should not reach 30 baht a dollar because the Bank of Thailand would intervene to maintain an appropriate level.

"Rapid appreciation in the baht would cause more economic problems, but if the government imports more machinery and raw materials for its investment projects this would help bring the baht's value down," the UTCC chief said.

Tthe baht's appreciation was in line with other regional currencies and Thailand could still compete in the global market.

He said the devaluation of the Vietnamese currency, the dong, would not affect agricultural exports since Thailand still had an advantage in the quality of agricultural goods.

"Vietnam is the only country in the region that has devalued its currency. Thailand would be affected if Malaysia, Indonesia or Singapore decide to follow Vietnam," he said.

[bumper]

PM disagrees withTHB devaluation
BANGKOK, 30 November 2009 (NNT) –The Prime Minister has maintained a firm stance against the devaluation of the Thai baht currency as proposed by the private sector.

Mr Abhisit said that he decided not to devalue the currency as he feared that the devaluation would affect the price of oil. Devaluing the Thai baht also might lead the Thai economy to a situation such as the one in 1997.

Deputy secretary-general of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Pornsil Patchrintanakul, has called on the government to devalue the THB currency as he expressed concern that Thai products might lack global competition due to the appreciation of the Baht. The devaluation of the Vietnam “Dong” currency announced by their government resulted in an appreciation in competitor countries, which increased from 5% to 15%.

The Prime Minister insisted that the Thai economy was not the weakest among ASEAN countries, adding that the Chinese economy would also not be affected like the Dubai economic collapse as a result of its good management.


News ID: 255211300023

Reporter : Boonsong Lipimas
News Date : 30 November 2009

[bumper]

I know I can't do a darn thing about the baht but it something to watch the twists and turns. Every now and then you get a glimpse of the truth rather then the Government position of everything is rosey.

Saw one today really by accident it was on the NBT news. Had the P.M. attended the meeting of the Chamber of Commerce this weekend we probably would have no knowledge of what has really been happeing. Had the onterviwer not pushed an opne ended question it would not have been said.

It was on NBT this morning in english at 0810 the ten minuetes has no news on it. They interviewed a Member of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The subjuect agriculture and the Dong devaluation. The Governments position is that it is no problem because of the qaulity of the rice produced in Thailand.

What he said was in the real world the buyers don't care that Thai rice is a better qauilty it's the price they look at. The dong was already enjoying a 7% advantage in the end the Thai rice produces had to reduce the price of thier rice by 5% to sell it. If you will remember the Philipinnes cancelled a huge order of rice last year with Thailand to Purchace from Vietnam.

He said the now the dong has 13 to 14 % advantage, that will again have to be offset by a reduction in price.

Ever think about how close a margin farmers work on, keep in middle the guy who sells it makes a heck of a lot more then the guy who grows. So here we sit the cost's for the farmer going up and the ultimate price going down. Our Houskeeper grows rice and we support her in that we get our rice for the year for giving her the money. She doesn't even try to sell it it's for family use.

Think about how does this keep going every year about this time the government comes up with loan forgiveness programs or something. This year it's, we will loan you up to 200K to pay off the loan sharks. If they didn't do this the farmers couldn't even scratch out a living.

The point don't believe for a second that the average Thai doesn't believe the baht is not over valued. The Goverment saving face is much more important to a politician then to a worker trying to make a living(Chambers words not mine) It's obvious that the farmer isn't buying the Governments sales pitch any longer.

That is the real danger in Thailand not speeches by Thaks. The Chamber is presenting five plans, ten year plans and twenty year plans in eight areas of the economy, including agriculture. What will happen, the Government will release another statement that everything is rosey, so nothing.

Thailand for the past few years is pulling in two different directions, the end result no one is moving forward. Till something changes that, things will stay as you see it today. Will it destroy Thailand seems to be the what history says is this is what happesn here and it's still here today.

So I don't see the baht changing till the politics change.

[nevket240]

just in the 'mail'

OzForex Daily Commentary - 03/12/2009

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar bounced from an early morning dip to 0.9235 yesterday to trade within a whisker of the 93 cent handle overnight buoyed by gains in commodity and equity markets. Local equities posted strong gains whilst gold prices hit record highs above $1200 an ounce helping the AUD/USD exchange rate. The move was tempered somewhat in late U.S trade following a disappointing employment report sending the Aussie back to this morning’s open around 0.9235. This morning sees the release of important October Retail Sales data with some improvement in consumer spending expected to see a result of around +0.3% for the month.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9200 to 0.9300

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling rallied during European trade after surviving an initial sell off to 1.6550 against the Greenback, exchanging as high as 1.6695 in overnight trade. The move was originally sparked by a slightly better than expected U.K Purchasing Managers Index for the construction industry with further momentum coming on the back of a move higher in EUR/USD. During the U.S session however demand for the Greenback emerged and the Cable finds itself sitting around 1.6630 this morning. With the Aussie dollar pulling back from its overnight highs the GBP/AUD cross rate opens this morning hovering around 1.8000 ahead of today’s Australian Retail Sales data which is sure to move the market in Asia.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7920 to 1.8050

:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi traded sideways for the majority of the overnight session bouncing between 0.7260 and 0.7290. That was until the release of several key U.S economic data late in the piece that triggered a reversal in its fortunes. Coming ahead of this Friday’s U.S payroll data a larger than expected increase in the number of job losses as measured by the ADP employment report caught the markets attention, turning investors away from the high yielding NZD. This morning sees the Kiwi exchanging on its lows at 0.7205 with only the ANZ November Commodity Price Index scheduled for release, information that is not likely to move the currency a great deal. Direction in our time-zone is instead expected to come from the release of Australian Retail Sales data with a larger than 0.3% increase likely to spark a rally in the AUD.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7180 to 0.7300

:: Majors: The Euro hit a high of 1.5110 against the Greenback in early offshore trade overnight following a higher than forecast +0.2% reading in the October Producer Prices Index. Most economists had predicted a rebound from the previous months -0.4% result with consensus being for a flat 0% result triggering a move from 1.5065 to the highs. Despite several attempts to continue the rally EUR/USD then retreated back to its recent range opening this morning back at 1.5035. The pullback came after a disappointing U.S ADP employment report signalling 169k jobs lost in November forcing some analysts to downgrade forecasts for Friday’s key payroll data. As a consequence Wall Street reversed early gains following the report to finish the session marginally in the red putting a dampener on risk appetite which helped the Greenback firm. Also weighing on risk appetite was the release of the U.S Federal Reserve’s so called beige book, a business survey used to assist the central bank in setting monetary policy. The report indicated some “improvement in conditions” although the economy expanded only “modestly” from October through to mid November, the markets had been hoping for a more hawkish assessment.

:: Data Releases:
AUD: Oct Retail Sales
NZD: Nov ANZ Commodity Prices
USD: Q3 Forecast Unit Labour Costs, Q3 Forecast Non-Farm Productivity & Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
GBP: Nov Services PMI
EUR: ECB Meeting, Oct Retail Sales & Q3 Prelim GDP
JPY: Q3 Capital Spending
CAD: No Data Expected Today
:: Note: The above exchange rates are based on "interbank" rates. If you are considering a transfer then please login, register or call us for a live dealing rate.

Regards,
OzForex Dealers
OzForex | Foreign Exchange Services

regards

[KHONDAHM]

The USA, UK, Japan, and most other major currencies are on a quantitative easing binge. No way, no how will the baht not appreciate if the Thai government does not intervene to devalue the baht. If they do nothing exports go in the toilet and drag the rest of the economy with it.

Gold, gold, gold.

[JimboPSM]

Gold, gold, gold.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on this.

In my opinion, the rise in the price of gold compared to the fall in the price of the USD seems to have some of the characteristics of being another bubble.

The rate of price increase has gained a momentum that is disproportionate to the fall in the USD – unless it is the fall in the USD that is lagging

When I look at what many economic and financial commentators are saying I now appear (relatively speaking) to have become a bull on the USD – and there have been few that have been as critical as I have been for quite some years on the structural problems of the US economy and its impact on the USD (particularly with reference to the fiscal & trade deficits that have existed and continue to exist).

With apologies to Mark Twain – reports of the death of the USD are greatly exaggerated or maybe

[KHONDAHM]

With apologies to Mark Twain – reports of the death of the USD are greatly exaggerated or maybe

Nah, the dollar died when the Fed increased its quantitative easing in 2008. The head shot was doing dumb things like buying Treasuries and other endless money creation activities in 2009. It's just a zombie looking for the right hole to fall into. It is finding that hole now. =D>

FDIC is tapped out. They are about to access the $500 billion Fed credit facility = more money creation. Then in 2010, the teetering banks which normally would have already been closed down will collapse en masse. When confidence in banks goes out the window, the runs on the dollar will be undeniable. Gold is just one of many, many signs of the ongoing run on the dollar.

Nobody wants it other than clueless and mislead US citizens who rely on CNBC, CNN, Fox, and other such mainstream media.

[BobHelm]

Jimbo I did catch a bit about gold & China on the news yesterday that suggests at least some of this rise is due to perceived future demand increase for gold.
The Chinese thing was twin pronged.
Estimates had suggested that retail demand for gold in China next year would be 100 tons more than this year.
A Government official stated that the Central bank had been instructed to raise the value of the gold reserves that it held by a significant amount over the next 3 years.
I have not read any newspaper reports on it though, & it could have just been TV 'stories'.
Also (being a cynic) this would be just the sort of message that I would want released to the world if I had just paid $1,200 an ounce.....

[nongkhai]

Gold prices have dropped significantly the past week or so, now around THB 17,500 / Baht of gold.

So what do you think? Is it a good time to buy gold - or not?