Another Military Coup.

[Aardvark]

Will there be another Military Coup in Thailand this year. Some People think so.....http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... -what-coup

[Texpat]

We can always hope, can't we?

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said military leaders these days stood by democratic principles and pledged support for the government.

Oh ... ok. That clears it up. No chance then...

[Aardvark]

Their not moving Tanks and APC's to Bkk for nothing, with Thaksin's court case coming up and the Red shirts about to hit the street I think their expecting big trouble

[maaka]

of course there will be a coup, if not this year then next year, thailand's political history is full of coups.its the norm.

[Aardvark]

A couple of opposing views http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/01 ... 121373.php And this one from the General.....http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/01 ... 121420.php I know which one I believe

[KHONDAHM]

of course there will be a coup, if not this year then next year, thailand's political history is full of coups.its the norm.

Co-signed.

The one I am worried about is the one that happens after the unmentionable happens. Which may likely happen in the not too distant future as a consequence of the aging process. With Udon being a red-shirt bastion having a military base, airport, and other strategic assets, it has the potential to get a little ugly around town...

Just my song baht.

[Aardvark]

Looks like it could get ugly before that.....http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/01 ... 121498.php

[Khun Paul]

Why are we talking about a Military Coup, it has often been said that farangs have no interestin Thailands affairs we are seen to meddle, Also many people have said we are not wanted here.
yet here we are discussing whether or not there will be a coup. On tyhe one hand Thai's will do whatever they feel like and on the other hand any upset in the so-called status quo could upset our lives.

I sincerely believe that Thailand and its so-called elite do not really want a Coup, nor do the Army really want to get involved, or the navy or Air Force for that matter. Any Military intervention would bring about a serious decline in Thailands fortunes.

One hopes that many will see the light, however having said that with the obvious entrenchment of the Red Shirts in their headlong dash to national suicide one does keep ones fingers crossed.

[KHONDAHM]

One hopes that many will see the light, however having said that with the obvious entrenchment of the Red Shirts in their headlong dash to national suicide one does keep ones fingers crossed.

I dunno. The sons of the Red shirts are the overwhelming majority of the military grunts. I was there when my [very close family member] was "drafted" in 2006. The whole "lottery" system is rigged in such a way, that it guarantees the sons of the red shirts will be the majority of those who are selected to serve. He's now an instructor and we often chat about what the common grunt is thinking. They're thinking they are not going to club their mate's red shirt wearing family members if the unmentionable (we'll henceforth just say UN) is no longer with us. As long as the UN is around, then they will do whatever they are commanded to do. If the other UN is running things, they would refuse - from those in command on down to grunt. THAT's when things could get sticky (the reason I worry about it) because no one really knows who will stick with who after a mass refusal.

IF Thaksin were to return, he's pretty much guaranteed the overwhelming majority of their support. The Yellows have only the UN and control of greater Bangkok going for them. They remain in power ONLY because of the UN.

Just IMHO and based on what I am hearing from the boots on the ground, of course.

Cheers!

[pompui]

I dunno. The sons of the Red shirts are the overwhelming majority of the military grunts. I was there when my [very close family member] was "drafted" in 2006. The whole "lottery" system is rigged in such a way, that it guarantees the sons of the red shirts will be the majority of those who are selected to serve.


Cheers!

Trying to remember how the system works when getting drafted here,Thais put their hand into a box and if the colour paper is ? then they go into the army,if the colour is ? then civilan life.This can be rigged you say ?
Seems the Thais cannot do anything without cheating the system.

[KHONDAHM]

Trying to remember how the system works when getting drafted here,Thais put their hand into a box and if the colour paper is ? then they go into the army,if the colour is ? then civilan life.This can be rigged you say ?
Seems the Thais cannot do anything without cheating the system.

1. The box pretty much just goes to the villages...
2. Not everyone who gets the "winning" ticket goes to the show...

Oh, wait...you were thinking that the box goes to the pew-kow-kow's (next time you see one in a grunt military uniform, take a picture and post it, please. I'd like to show my relative that they do exist) in Bangkok? That the draw is always fair and by the book? Surely you weren't...were you?

Gee, I hope not.

[Aardvark]

It looks like it won't go away......http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02 ... 121534.php

[pompui]

Oh, wait...you were thinking that the box goes to the pew-kow-kow's (next time you see one in a grunt military uniform, take a picture and post it, please. I'd like to show my relative that they do exist) in Bangkok? That the draw is always fair and by the book? Surely you weren't...were you?

Gee, I hope not.

So not every person turns up to find out at the villages whether they have been drafted or not,funny system though,50/50 chance not taking into consideration fitness,ability,etc
Must be some strange soldiers in the Thai army

[jackspratt]

IF Thaksin were to return, he's pretty much guaranteed the overwhelming majority of their support. The Yellows have only the UN and control of greater Bangkok going for them. They remain in power ONLY because of the UN

Cheers!

I wasn't aware that the Yellows were in power.

If you mean the Dems (and their coalition partners), they seem to have, at best, a tenuous relationship with the Yellows - which is the reason the Yellows have now formed their own political party.

I reckon you are drawing some very broad conclusions, based on very little evidence.

[Aardvark]

It would seem you are indeed correct Jack, but the Abisit Govt do tend to act like they have the Yellow Shirts well and truly on board.....http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/ ... low+Shirts

[KHONDAHM]

I wasn't aware that the Yellows were in power.

If you mean the Dems (and their coalition partners), they seem to have, at best, a tenuous relationship with the Yellows - which is the reason the Yellows have now formed their own political party.

I reckon you are drawing some very broad conclusions, based on very little evidence.

I stand corrected if I mis-spoke. I freely admit that I do not follow Thai politics other than very generally due to what I perceive as a severe lack of independent and thorough reporting due to the lèse majesté laws. A lot of my information is filtered through first-hand contact with ordinary citizens who can read the Thai-language newspapers and fully understand nuances and contextual references in the many speeches and interviews aired. Each one of them is proudly biased towards one or the other camp and filtering that information can get clogged every now and then.

[Aardvark]

It seems there is no option left for both sides now but confrontation......http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02 ... 121852.php

[jackspratt]

It seems there is no option left for both sides now but confrontation......http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02 ... 121852.php

An opinion piece by one (not particularly well respected) journalist who is well known for his shrill, conspiracy filled musings.

To be sure, things are going to get hotter between now and Feb 26 when Thanksin finally says goodbye to TBH2 billion of his ill-gotten gains. I suspect it will be nowhere near as bad as Mr Thanong speculates.

[Aardvark]

I hope your right Jack, but I'm very sceptical !

[Aardvark]

This is ridiculous, but it looks like Thaksin is willing to use a War between Cambodia and Thailand to get what he wants ....http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... at-abhisit