Baht What up with Dat?????

[KHONDAHM]

Gold prices have dropped significantly the past week or so, now around THB 17,500 / Baht of gold.

So what do you think? Is it a good time to buy gold - or not?

Analysts I follow are calling for support to kick in @$US 1070 - 1100 range. That's about 10% off the $1224 high and a good time to wade in or add to positions. The wife is on standby to scoop up @5 more bars next week if that happens.

In an interview 12/10 (link, below), Jim Rogers is calling for a short term dollar rally. Makes perfect sense given it is EOY and hedge funds are doing the seasonal thing of taking profits and squaring the books so they look better on paper. Liquidate US securities = dollar goes up. The dollar FAIL will resume in earnest January. February at the latest.

http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/ ... er-102009/

2010 will be a GREAT year for gold. Where is the US going to borrow the $3,000,000,000,000 needed to rollover maturing short term debt? Why from the Fed, of course. Helicopter Ben will simply tap on his keyboard just like I did, press enter, and *PRESTO!* the Fed will have the money to buy the Treasuries.

2010 will be a great year, indeed.

[nongkhai]

Thanks for that Khon Thong, I mean Khon Dam. You sound like you know what you're talking about.

I agree that there may be a short-term loss, but I believe there's usually a big bump around Chinese New Year as well. Of course I don't have a clue, and this is all uninformed wishful thinking, but I'm in the mood to play, so lessee...

How big are those bars again? And is that why they call them "bar girls"?

Sorry. What's the topic, again? [Emoticon here if I used them.]

[KHONDAHM]

How big are those bars again? And is that why they call them "bar girls"?

I wish I knew what I was talking about a while back when I was deep in equities and my wife was telling me to buy land and gold instead! But noooooooooo...me with all the initials after my name was certainly much smarter than some country girl from Bumble_F, Thailand. Ha!

Anyway, a 5 baht bar of 96.5% (23k) Thai gold is about the same size as 4 Wrigley's Doublemint sticks stacked and cut in half. Not all bars are the same size - some are longer and thinner - but all are ~2.36 troy ounces.

My personal preference is to not buy new bars - IMHO, visibly old ones are less likely to be "filled" inside. They look old because they have been handled and traded enough times for them to be good enough for others, so they are good enough for me - TIT knowutimean. 10 baht bars are less easier to come across unless you are in Bangkok.

When I buy, I pay a deposit equal to 1 bar and the balance when the lot is delivered. They have to say delivery may take up to 21 days, but I usually get a call within 3-7 days. Just to keep them honest, I may take a bar, run over to another shop elsewhere and confirm the authenticity before returning to pay for and pick up the rest. I also prefer to stick with the old name shops (Yawarat, for example) - they keep good inventories and have an excellent reputation (according to the Mrs.). Service is very professional, too. They understand CLEARLY it's your money and they do not try to F with it. Sticking with one shop and building a reputation as a good customer is not a bad idea. They may sometimes bend the rules to give you discounts on other purchases and you get a better selection of their "for free" glassware collections.

[nongkhai]

Thanks KD, bought some in NK, nice old shop, forget the name offhand, but my wife got some stamps in her book, so guess more gifts are in the pipeline, in addition to the dinner set we got this time.

And it's up 100 baht today, so off to a good start... Like I said, think we'll sell it all around Chinese New Year, and head back to the states for a visit. It's been a long time...

Chok dee.

[bumper]

Hey Jimbo how's life?

Interesting I was listening to a debate thios morning on Bloomberg. Why wasn't china devaluing it's currency?

Answer they were waiting till they were not export dependent and their domestic econmy could carry the load.

The Thai's seem to admire them a lot but they don't seem to be learning much from them.

Feds acting as if it is really going to raise interest rates around June 2010. The F/M here hinting that Thailand may have a violent 2010 what says Ye Jimbo

As to the latter certainly l looks to me like they have their ducks in a row now. So it would not surprise me one bit.

That could turn positive for dollar holders if those two things do in fact happen. Since it's conressional election year the Big O is singing a new song about not printing money like it was monoply money. Hot to pay that debt down. I donlt know what kind of President he will be reme3ber at, but he certianly is one heck of a plitician.

Sadly what is good for the dollar is not as good fro the rest of the world. Russia taking it's interest rates down. Now that one is a surprise they produce a lot of oil. How many more surprises will we see, from contries we haev not given much thought to.

Venezuela telling Toyota gives us your technical expertise or shut your plant down. They might as well shut down and take the loss. Hugo will sieze it just as he did the Oil Companies assets.

I still think there are still to many wild cards out there to really predict the baht exchange rate for 2010.

[docta]

Anyone have opinion about Baht going up or down due to current Red/Gov trouble?

[UdonExpat]

There is no trouble according to the baht.

[rick]

Still exactly tracking the dollar today.

[nkstan]

There is no problem with the banking system in Thailand relative to our countries,the debt is not accumulating as fast either,nor are their interest rates dropping against ours!Add to that the foreign investment money pouring into Thailand,which puts more demand for baht and we are lucky that the baht is not at 20-25!It is the BOT that is keeping the baht from strengthening any faster than it has,because it hurts exports which are the the major proportion of the economy,tourism is minor in comparison and always seems to come back when the dust settles!

So,IMO,the protest disruptions hurt the locals as they lose income and lives,but as very little to do with exchange rates,other than possibly to cause the BOT to be more supportive!

It is the actions of the other countries which are causing the exchange rates to be so negative!

If for some reason Foreign Investment was to dry up,the baht would definitely weaken relative to that drop and one might surmise that a complete revoluntionary civil war might cause that to happen,but I don't think so ,for more than a moment,as China,S,Korea and Japan are involved heavily now and would probably use the war as an opportunity to get more involved as the country would be in greater need after the dust settled!

Personally,I would rather contend with the normal strengthening of the baht,then an all out civil war!

When I moved here ,I was getting 45-46 baht to the USD,which was an anomally as a result of Thailands failing bank system during the 97 debacle.

My understanding was the baht was in the 20's before that and their is no comprehensible reason for it to not go back to those rates !

[jingjai]

Thai troops, protesters clash in capital; 8 killed
By THANYARAT DOKSONE, Associated Press Writer – 23 mins ago
...With security deteriorating and hopes of a peaceful resolution to the standoff increasingly unlikely, what was once one of Southeast Asia's most stable democracies and magnets of foreign investment has been thrust deep into political uncertainty. The crisis threatens its stability, economy and already-decimated tourism industry...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100514/ap_ ... d_politics

[lepidoptra]

If Thailand became a failed state, industry ground to a halt, It was hit by earthquakes and other natural disasters the Baht would still retain it's strength. One bit of bad news in the UK sends the pound into free fall. I'll never understand it.

[Asiaphile]

I'll never understand it.

It's a simple matter of economics. As long as Thailand EXPORTS more than it IMPORTS it will have a positive Balance of Trade (BoT) (making foreign countries need more Baht to pay for their Thai imports) the rate of the Thai currency will remain comparatively high.

[valiant]

I have a question I would like to ask
I am coming over from the UK for a month in August would I be advised to bring Pounds Sterling or a bank debit card bearing in mind it is 150 baht a time used?

[arjay]

Valiant, bring sterling and change it here as needed, and hope the exchange rate improves between now and when you change it, - though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

You get a better rate here than in the UK.

[rickfarang]

But remain aware that if you have a pile of cash, you could loose it one way or another. Money in you bank is safer.

[malc123]

With my Nationwide debit card, the Yellow Bank is still free.


malc123

[valiant]

Thank you all for your advise, we are with the Nationwide. Where are the Yellow Banks?

[cookie]

though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

based on what ?????

[arjay]

arjay wrote: though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!



cookie wrote: based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

[KHONDAHM]

As the Euro falls, UK exports become more expensive. If the UK cannot export it's way out of debt, which it can't, the only other option on the table is to inflate its way out of debt by printing more money.

The thing that tickles me is that the latter strategy is in effect, but the general public seems to be blissfully unaware because it is being carried out over several years in small but compounding increments.