Baht What up with Dat?????

[cookie]

arjay wrote: though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!



cookie wrote: based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

sorry arjay,

I have to disagree with your personal assessment,

I think (contrary to your assessment) that the exchange rate will get even worse in the future.

I think that the Thai Bath will get even stronger in the future and the Sterling will fall further in the future

I guess the future will show us...

[cookie]

by the way,
I just read this breaking news in the Nation...

BREAKINGNEWS »


Foreign investments higher in Jan.-Apr. 2010

Foreign direct investment in January to April of this year increased by 31.7 per cent year-on-year, according to the Board of Investment (BOI) secretary-general Atchaka Sibunruang.

The BOI approved 186 foreign investments projects between January and April of this year.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Fo ... 30560.html

articles like this simply confirm that the Thai Bath will keep on getting stronger,

regardless of all the problems in Thailand during these months,
regardless of the political turmoil,
regardless of the fighting and the deaths,
foreign direct capital kept on flowing into Thailand and pushing the Thai Bath higher and higher !!!),

amazing....

[bumper]

The stock investors haven't came back, they will. These are projects of one type or another being developed in Thailand. There were billions pulled out of stocks in the last few weeks. Headed for safer area's when things calm down the hedge funds will be knocking on the door again.

That's my best guess.

[arjay]

Note for the Record, from the Bangkok Bank Website, at today's close (31st May 2010).

Sterling TT Buying Rate: 46.78250 (and that's up from last week!!)


Currency Description Bank Note Buying Rates Selling Rates


GBP United Kingdom 46.41 48.01 46.66000 **46.78250** 47.45500

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx

[cookie]

Note for the Record, from the Bangkok Bank Website, at today's close (31st May 2010).

Sterling TT Buying Rate: 46.78250 (and that's up from last week!!)


Currency Description Bank Note Buying Rates Selling Rates


GBP United Kingdom 46.41 48.01 46.66000 **46.78250** 47.45500

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx

my prediction will come,
just wait for it

by the way,
Bumper is quite right,
the stock investors will also come back on top of all this,
making the Thai Bath even more stronger

[KHONDAHM]

A bit of contextual caution on that 31% yoy increase: Fear and uncertainty had gripped the market in the wake of the crash, so a lot of investment was delayed. The sharp yoy increase includes those delayed investments.

Notwithstanding the above, such investments are conspicuous all over Udon proper.

[UdonExpat]

I get a weekly newsletter from Ayudhya Funds. It is one that I nearly always read. Here's the past week's issue in English.

Thailand had a trade DEFICIT of $266 million in April. This may have something to do with the current slight weakness in the THB.

http://www.ayfunds.com/MarketViewDetail ... 635&lang=E

There is also a current outflow of THB in the stock market that contributes to the THB's current weakness.

http://www.set.or.th/static/mktstat/Tab ... de.xls?006

The current weakness is probably temporary. A good time to move some money here.

[bumper]

A little encouragement I hope I started this thread on 3-3- 2006, so there is a lot history as to the baht in it. Since then I have seen threads started like "Die Dollar Die" At one point as I recall the pound was at roughly $2.00 The Dollar was going to loose it's reserve currency status. Well it didn't. There was a time when all you heard was buy the Euro, well getting my retirement in dollars and no other choice available, not something I could do

Having been in the boat up sh-t creek and no paddle I know what it feels like, What happening to the pound and Euro is not the end of the world. It is one huge pot hole in the road and eventually you will drive around it.

Will the dollar ever get 44 to one on the Thai baht again, I seriously doubt it. So hang in there guys your currency will gain value again. To the same levels probably not.

As long as Thailand has more money then it's debts it's going to be the mouse that roared.

Certainly not the end of the world. Time will change what is happening to you now.

[bumper]

BOT left the interest rates alone today.


World Currencies

CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
USD-JPY 91.9630 1.0175 1.1188% 06:38
USD-HKD 7.7932 0.0025 0.0321% 06:38
AUD-USD 0.8331 0.0019 0.2301% 06:39
NZD-USD 0.6747 -0.0003 -0.0452% 06:39
USD-SGD 1.4098 -0.0032 -0.2247% 06:39
USD-TWD 32.2800 0.0620 0.1924% 03:59
USD-KRW 1234.5000 18.3250 1.5068% 01:59
USD-PHP 46.7300 0.0775 0.1661% 04:58
USD-IDR 9250.0000 0.0000 0.0000% 04:59
USD-INR 47.0160 -0.1419 -0.3009% 06:38
USD-CNY 6.8298 -0.0008 -0.0110% 05:27
USD-MYR 3.3012 -0.0115 -0.3471% 04:59
USD-THB 32.6050 0.0050 0.0154% 06:38

[malc123]

With my Nationwide debit card, the Yellow Bank is still free.
malc123

Today 5th June. The Yellow bank charged 150bht for my Nationwide debit card. First time, I am gutted.

malc123

[trubrit]

With my Nationwide debit card, the Yellow Bank is still free.
malc123

Today 5th June. The Yellow bank charged 150bht for my Nationwide debit card. First time, I am gutted.

malc123

Just shows . You never know who reads this forum .

[cookie]

as I mentioned before,
there are several signs that the Bath will get stronger before the end of the year.
Here is one more sign:

Baht, set advance on news of yuan flexibility
By THE NATION, AGENCIES
Published on June 22, 2010


The baht and the stock market advanced yesterday in line with regional movements following China's move to add "flexibility" to its currency.

China's decision is expected to allow regional currencies to strengthen against the US dollar and increase the regional attraction to global investors.

As the Chinese currency on Monday surged to 6.8089 to the dollar, its highest level since a revaluation by Beijing in July 2005 but still within the 6.7934-6.8616 trading range, the baht also rose to its strongest level in five weeks, a move that brightens the prospects for Thai exports.

The baht gained 0.4 per cent to 32.28 to the dollar yesterday afternoon in Bangkok and touched 32.25, its strongest since May 13, Bloomberg data showed. HSBC and Kasikornbank predict the baht will climb to 31.50 this year.

The Thai baht could appreciate to Bt31 per dollar at the end of this year also on support by China's currency move, according to Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Unit.

"We maintain the view that the baht would rise to 31 per dollar this year as there is a consensus that China will allow the yuan to appreciate 3 per cent (in the next 12 months). The baht appreciation will be supported by the dollar weakening against Asian currencies, as well as current account surplus and foreign direct investment," said Economist Pornthep Jubandhu.

He noted that during July 2005-July 2008, on the back of 21 per cent yuan appreciation, the Thai baht rose 26 per cent. US dollar then weakened 18 per cent against major currencies used for the calculation of the US dollar trade-weighted index.

[arjay]

though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

sorry arjay,

I have to disagree with your personal assessment,

I think (contrary to your assessment) that the exchange rate will get even worse in the future.

I think that the Thai Bath will get even stronger in the future and the Sterling will fall further in the future

I guess the future will show us...

I just thought I'd touch base/put an "interim" marker down on this one with Cookie, to confirm my earlier post where I said I felt the pound sterling couldn't go any lower. One of the reasons I gave was the UK Budget due yesterday (see above), which I thought would help the pound.

And sure enough, as predicted the pound has lifted, albeit only a little so far, - about 1 baht to the pound, but more to go, and I've got until the end of the year to prove my point. In fact the pound is green against all currencies at this moment, except the NZ dollar.

Today against the US Dollar: 1.4911

Today's rate against the baht: BBC: 48.288
Bangkok Bank, dragging their heels at: 47.76250

which compares with 31st May:
Bangkok Bank: 46.78250

The climb back up has started. I'll keep you updated

In case you want to check:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/news/business ... efault.stm
and
http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx
(with Bangkok Bank, I use the Buying TT rate).

[bumper]

Starting Monday there were currency moves in reaction the China news. You also had the Russians looking for other currencies then the dollar. Us dollar holders have not been harmed in any big way either.

Every little bit helps guys.

[cookie]

though the exchange rate surely can't get much worse!!

based on what ?????

Based on my views that:

-sterling has fallen substantially over the last 18+ months, (some 35%) and particularly so over the last 6 months.

-sterling is not part of the Euro currency and therefore should be less affected by the Euro weakness and Debt contagion issues

-sterling is now disproportionately cheap compared to the baht and many other currencies, and ultimately markets will recognise/realise such things

-whilst there are and will be concerns about the UK's level of debt, there is now a new government in the UK with a stated (and partially demonstrated) commitment to tackle the UK's debt situation

-that the new UK government will be announcing their budget/financial measures to tackle the UK's debt on 22 June, which should give the markets (sterling) confidence.

- UK interest rates will inevitably have to rise to counter inflationary pressures, (though maybe not until end of this year, beginning of next), which will tend to strengthen the currency. Indeed even the prospect of an increase will tend to increase a currency's exchange rate.

That's my (personal) assessment/views anyway.

sorry arjay,

I have to disagree with your personal assessment,

I think (contrary to your assessment) that the exchange rate will get even worse in the future.

I think that the Thai Bath will get even stronger in the future and the Sterling will fall further in the future

I guess the future will show us...

I just thought I'd touch base/put an "interim" marker down on this one with Cookie, to confirm my earlier post where I said I felt the pound sterling couldn't go any lower. One of the reasons I gave was the UK Budget due yesterday (see above), which I thought would help the pound.

And sure enough, as predicted the pound has lifted, albeit only a little so far, - about 1 baht to the pound, but more to go, and I've got until the end of the year to prove my point. In fact the pound is green against all currencies at this moment, except the NZ dollar.

Today against the US Dollar: 1.4911

Today's rate against the baht: BBC: 48.288
Bangkok Bank, dragging their heels at: 47.76250

which compares with 31st May:
Bangkok Bank: 46.78250

The climb back up has started. I'll keep you updated

In case you want to check:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/news/business ... efault.stm
and
http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok%20Ba ... Rates.aspx
(with Bangkok Bank, I use the Buying TT rate).

I knew this one was coming
But I am still confident in my prediction because my prediction is based on a long term vision, and not a one time event like the UK budget.

( the continued healthy grow of the Thai economy and the continued inflow of foreign investments into Thailand will have the economical consequence that the Thai Bath will keep on getting stronger...)

in any case, I just relax and wait and see as I told before,
and I am convinced that you will do whatever it takes to follow this subject

[arjay]

I knew this one was coming
But I am still confident in my prediction because my prediction is based on a long term vision,

Cookie, my prediction was indeed a long term one too. I see the current strengthening of sterling being in response to the Uk Budget, and but one step in a continuing upward movement of the pound.

Rather than highjack this thread to follow the strengthening of sterling, I've started a new one here, entitled: "The Recovery of Sterling?", link below, where I will post regular updates, in NORMAL SIZE FONT:

http://www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/p ... ml#p224223

[arjay]

Cookie just to keep you in touch with developments, the recovery of the pound sterling continues, -

£ up again against the dollar and the baht:

This morning:
From BBC website:
£ to US Dollar: 1.51190
£ to Thai baht: 48.93810

From Bangkok Bank:
£ to Thai baht: 48.585

see this thread here:
http://www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/p ... ml#p224736

[nkstan]

Since the gov't is reporting a 42% increase ,year to year,in exports,that means the their is 42% more foreign currency that has to buy baht,this puts more strrengthening pressure on the baht!

It is reported that for May alone ,there was a USD 2.21 Billion surplus in exports over imports,therefore the extra USD in Thailand weaken the dollar to the baht.

One of the BOT's jobs is to keep the baht within a range that doesn't cause a slowdown in exports,which is the majority share of the Thai GNP,so they intervene as they deem necessary!

If the influx of extra foreign currency continues from an ever increasing exports,the BOT will surely allow the baht to strengthen more!

[cookie]

Cookie just to keep you in touch with developments, the recovery of the pound sterling continues, -

£ up again against the dollar and the baht:

This morning:
From BBC website:
£ to US Dollar: 1.51190
£ to Thai baht: 48.93810

From Bangkok Bank:
£ to Thai baht: 48.585

see this thread here:
http://www.udonmap.com/udonthaniforum/p ... ml#p224736

and today? the recovery of the pound sterling continues ????
suddenly again long term projections or.....
it's suddenly rather quiet......

[cookie]

KBank ups GDP forecast to 6%
Strong recovery, exports fuel optimism

* Published: 30/06/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: Business

Kasikornbank has revised up its forecast for Thai economic growth this year to a range of 4% to 6%, thanks to the recovery's gaining momentum and a localised impact from recent political unrest, says Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Center.

Discussing economic trends, from left: Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Center; Wiwan Tharahirunchote, executive chairman of KResearch; Thiti Tantikulanan, head of capital markets business division at Kasikornbank, and Kobsidthi Silpachai, market and economic research head at KBank.

The research house previously forecast gross domestic product would grow by 2.6% to 4.5% this year.

The new, more optimistic outlook is supported by the continuing economic recovery in the first quarter which recorded 12% year-on-year growth.

The Thai Khem Kaeng stimulus programme and a localised impact from political instability were other positive factors that supported growth.

As of June 18, the government had disbursed about 170.98 billion baht from the Thai Khem Kaeng project's target of 278 billion for the year.

Recent political turmoil dragged on the economy with an estimated reduction in GDP of between 1.4% and 2.8%, smaller than the previous estimate of 1.4% to 3.7%.

Exports, however, will help drive growth after posting better-than-expected performance in the first quarter. KResearch adjusted its forecast for export growth to 22% to 27%, up from 17% to 24% earlier, Dr Charl said.

But the economic recovery would also increase inflationary pressure. The prices of commodities have continued to increase, especially for key products such as fuel and steel.

The firm predicts core inflation would rise to more than 3% in the second quarter next year. The price of Brent crude is forecast at $79.80 a barrel this year, increasing to $90 next year.

KBank's head of capital markets, Thiti Tantikulanan, said the Bank of Thailand would start to raise its one-day repurchase rate from next month.

The country's policy rate is expected to rise by 50 to 75 basis points by the year-end from 1.25% now. In addition, a negative real interest rate would lead to imbalances in the country's economy.

"Based on such reasons, the country's monetary policy would be back to normal in line with the country's economic environment and our policy rate would increase to 2% by the end of the year," he said.

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