Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by **rick** » October 12, 2015, 8:44 pm

I must admit the GBP/Baht movements the last week have been a bit mystifying. Apart from the expected rise of the baht after the Fed announcement, on at least 2 occasions the baht has gone up substantially against GBP, while the GBP has risen against other SE Asian currencies, the dollar and the Euro. So where is the good news pushing up the baht? Or is it all based on ensuring lower rates for tourists changing money during the winter season tourist rush?

Post by **parrot** » October 15, 2015, 7:52 am

I can't help but feel confident about my 40/$1 prediction........maybe not on January 1st........but maybe not long after

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politic ... st-5-years

Post by **bumper** » October 15, 2015, 5:30 pm

Dropped to 35.25 this morning. All about the FED.

One has to ask what stimulus?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 70908.html

This is two against growth and one it will grow

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 70915.html

Post by **parrot** » October 25, 2015, 4:32 pm

Regarding the Fed.....and the Baht. The article below helps me to understand the Fed more than I ever did previously........and how making currency bets on the dollar is indeed risky business.

I don't know how long people have been predicting an imminent rise in rates.....only to find the Fed isn't raising them......and yet, the world isn't coming to an end. Anyway, interesting reading.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/magaz ... ekendreads

Post by **bumper** » October 28, 2015, 12:29 pm

Interesting article, in the end I suppose it depends on where you are in life, in our case a strong dollar is a benefit. I wouldn't say the same about a company marketing a product internationally. as to loan costs from banks been my experience if you have a small business and need a loan a bank isn't going to loan to you anyway,

So I hope for stronger dollar, selfish sole that I am

Post by **bumper** » November 1, 2015, 10:13 am

Fed rate this has gotten ridicules we are talking about .25% it has to be factored in by now. But, yet we still see knee jerk reactions/

One country in South America started selling their gold today, I don't remember which one. I could see that effecting the Gold Market, simply more of a supply available. But, the FED rate I don;t thinks so.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/gol ... ke-concern

This I could see having an effect on the baht

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... -an-uptick

Post by **bumper** » November 1, 2015, 11:18 am

Finally found the article on Venezuela selling it's Gold Reserves

http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/29/news/ec ... ernational

Post by **bumper** » November 3, 2015, 6:02 pm

BOT meeting tomorrow

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 72177.html

Post by **bumper** » December 17, 2015, 6:08 pm

Well the FED finally raised the interest rate and the BOT did a good job of controlling the baht movement. How long they will keep it up I have no idea.

At my last look they kept it at 36.06

Post by **noosard** » December 17, 2015, 7:43 pm

The Fed has gunnabe going to raise the rate for so long
It has caused the USD to climb for the whole year so the market as whole didn't panic

Post by **bumper** » December 18, 2015, 9:10 am

Really they shouldn't have, for that very reason. Next few days should be interesting. I noted yesterday when the BOT stepped in, that is their job You could see where the Baht moved 17 satang then went back just about 36.06 each time.

Post by **bumper** » December 18, 2015, 6:56 pm

Things swung around today CNN at 1845 hours Baht 36.16 Market dropped 25 points to 1284

Post by **bumper** » December 19, 2015, 10:00 am

Think 39 to a dollar possible?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 75251.html

Post by **parrot** » January 1, 2016, 6:18 pm

parrot wrote:The last thing I've ever been correct on is forecasting exchange rates.....be they Taiwan dollars, Japanese Yen, or Thai Baht. But just like some of those financial pundits who forecast a stock market collapse.....and lo and behold, someday they WILL be correct, and I assume famous........I'm going out on a limb.
I have nothing to back up my prediction....other than a continuing series of articles on the economy from outside the country, continued building beyond imagination.....not just in Udon....but virtually all over the country, the anticipation of AEC but the reality that AEC isn't the bull that many see it to be (see today's article about open skies being delayed), along with the military mentality in most all the heads of the government.
So, my prediction..........40 to $1 by the end of the year. I know, I know......I'll be wrong....but if I'm right, I'll be famous!!

I obviously missed my prediction.....but ending the year at 36.01 to $1 isn't all that bad, considering the rate was around 32.5 at the end of March 2015. Given the current state of affairs here, devaluations in China, Indonesia, and Vietnam since March, and the continuing rise in the dollar, I'm betting (not much) that even better days are ahead for the dollar/baht exchange rate.

Post by **bumper** » January 2, 2016, 12:29 pm

Yo be honest I expected to see more then we got. Maybe things have to settle in after the Holidays. The Markets in the States closed lower. So unless something changes beyond the norm I expect to see the Sat down and the dollar up. It looks to me like the BOT is doing a good job holding the line right now.

Post by **bumper** » January 7, 2016, 10:25 am

CNBC shows the dollar to the baht at 36.31 at the momnet. The set a well a the other Asian markets is dropping I assume the is is all about China's stopping trade for the fourth day in a row. It was only open for 15 mins this morning

Post by **Zama** » January 7, 2016, 5:25 pm

"Year of greater volatility: CIMB"
The Nation January 7, 2016 2:30 pm

Exporters and importers are urged to hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, as the Thai baht may rise to Bt30 per US dollar or fall to as much as Bt40 during this year, said CIMB Thai Bank economist.

Amornthep Chawla, vice president and chief economost of the bank, noted that the US$/Bt exchange rate this year would be more volatile than 2015.
"There is a possibility that the baht could weaken or appreciate against US dollar. It’ll be tough for both exporters and importers," he said.
In the business-as-usual basis, CIMB expected the Thai baht to end the year at Bt38 per dollar.
The Thai baht could spike to Bt30 if oil prices further nosedive. Inflation would then be kept at a very low level and bars an increase in product prices. The appreciation is anticipated also if the US makes a U-turn by lowering rates again.
Meanwhile, the baht could weaken to Bt40 if Chinese yuan is weakened sharply while Thailand’s exports further slide for fourth year in a row. The possibility will be high also if oil prices spike due to tension in the Middle East.

Post by **rjj04** » January 7, 2016, 6:38 pm

Zama wrote:"Year of greater volatility: CIMB"
The Nation January 7, 2016 2:30 pm

Exporters and importers are urged to hedge against foreign exchange fluctuation, as the Thai baht may rise to Bt30 per US dollar or fall to as much as Bt40 during this year, said CIMB Thai Bank economist.

Amornthep Chawla, vice president and chief economost of the bank, noted that the US$/Bt exchange rate this year would be more volatile than 2015.
"There is a possibility that the baht could weaken or appreciate against US dollar. It’ll be tough for both exporters and importers," he said.
In the business-as-usual basis, CIMB expected the Thai baht to end the year at Bt38 per dollar.
The Thai baht could spike to Bt30 if oil prices further nosedive. Inflation would then be kept at a very low level and bars an increase in product prices. The appreciation is anticipated also if the US makes a U-turn by lowering rates again.
Meanwhile, the baht could weaken to Bt40 if Chinese yuan is weakened sharply while Thailand’s exports further slide for fourth year in a row. The possibility will be high also if oil prices spike due to tension in the Middle East.

Gee thanks CIMB. So useful to know that the Baht might go up, or it might go down.

These exim players are supposed to buy butterfly spreads or something

Post by **parrot** » January 8, 2016, 5:42 pm

I realize we're all (most, anyway) amateurs when it comes to foreign exchange........but seems to me the time may be ripening for some devaluations in the region. But like I said, amateurs.

Post by **noosard** » January 8, 2016, 6:25 pm

There is rumours the Chinese will devalue their money by 10% very soon
What that does in my direction (AUD) no idea
When there is rumours the AUD will devalue 10% as well