Brexit and Leadership.

[Drunk Monkey]

Here you go Jon, there's very close ties between him and the Express, I haven't spoken to him personally yet but last time I did he said it wouldn't happen, looks like he's changed his mind.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/98626 ... is-Johnson

Sounds pretty positive and just what UK politics needs .. Mr Farage getting back into the mix will certainly shake things up and more chance of the first planned and hard Brexit coming to fruition . Mays days are numbered for sure , but then theres Jeremy and all his wacky plans to take on.... pleased im based here with this political shambles unfolding.

Thanks for the info n link Vince , i know you have pretty close ties with Nigel Farage so thought the info was good , please keep us informed.

DM

[Pro V1]

I voted 'Leave', but having done so, wish there was now the opportunity for a second vote. Why? Am I suffering from 'Bregret' - that deep anxiety that some had after waking up the morning after the Referendum to find out that we are heading out of the EU? Most certainly not.

When I speak to people the feedback I get is that (almost) nobody is happy with the likely outcome of some sort of fudged soft Brexit deal. Remainers don't want it as it keeps us outside full membership of the the EU. Leavers don't want it as it will (likely) mean that the EU still has a huge influence on our laws and our policy-making. My question is a simple one - if (almost) nobody wants what's on offer, why are we embarking on this policy.

Of course there is a debate to be had about how we ended up here. Conservatives split on the subject and Labour desperately trying to say nothing hoping their enemy will destroy themselves over this, thus delivering Mr Corbyn to number 10. Yes our politicians have let us down, but we are where we are. Virtually no-one seems to want what's on offer - nobody believed this is what we voted 'Leave' for. In these circumstances the people deserve a second vote.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Cheers

Scottie

[vincemunday]

See your point Scottie, when Farage said pretty much the same thing a while back he came under ferocious attack by anyone and everyone. Personally I don't think we need a second vote, we need the politicians to give us what we voted for the first time, after all, even if we did have a second vote who's to say they'd take any more notice of it than they did the last one?

[Chuchi]

Sorry Scottie , disagree about a second vote,Theresa May’s heart was never in leaving which has played into the hands of Brussels.2 yrs have been wasted which is exactly what the eu wanted with the clock ticking and no further forwards.I wouldn’t be surprised when she penned that letter Blair,Barnier Cameron were probably in the room.If JRM had been in charge in that period he would have offered WTO rules and that would have given business time to prepare,the reason I voted to leave is because I believe that a nation state has the right to make their own laws otherwise what’s the point of having a parliament. I’m sure Junker et al are smirking at the moment but if this does get overturned I like many others would never take part in mainstream politics ever again and what should be more worrying many will turn to fringe parties which creates an EU superstate which is ungovernable (if it isn’t already)
Ps if the vote had gone the others way would I have been upset. Absolutely
Would I have called for a second vote. ? Absolutely not as I believe in the Democratic vote
Also Vince is right ,don’t matter how many times you vote ,these faceless bureaucrats will only accept one outcome

[vincemunday]

In the latest YouGov poll UKIP are up 3% overnight at the expense of the Cons, welcome to the rise of UKIP mk2, if Farage takes the leadership it will rise significantly, people are angry at the betrayal by Mrs May.

[Pro V1]

I'm obviously far removed from all this but I thought it was a clear choice between remain and the hardest of Brexits. I thought it was really really obvious the EU would be extremely difficult deal with and there would be no halfway house. The people chose Brexit in that context.

100% correct. Everybody I know had strong views on the matter, it was an excellent example of how to genuinely engage 'the people' in democracy. People felt passionately, some wanted to be out and others were desperate to remain in the EU. I never heard anybody (including the politicians) offering us some sort of fudged halfway house - that wasn't on the ballot paper - nobody voted for it.

Some good contributions on this thread and I fully understand why some people wouldn't want a second vote. However, to quote Harold McMillan, 'events, dear boy, events'. We are where we are - nobody now is going to offer a clean-cut 'out of Europe' option. In those circumstances, would you rather have the fudged, diluted, half-way house 'out' option. Or would you want the status quo? I was perfectly willing to abide by whatever choice the people made....however nobody, for a moment thought that an 'x' on the ballot paper would lead to the current cobbled together compromise.

[Pro V1]

In the latest YouGov poll UKIP are up 3% overnight at the expense of the Cons, welcome to the rise of UKIP mk2, if Farage takes the leadership it will rise significantly, people are angry at the betrayal by Mrs May.

You are absolutely correct Vince. However, the happiest man in the land is JC, he just sits back and watches while the Government implodes. Then his election strap-line will be - 'time for change'....and that will seem an attractive option to many; (not to me though I might add).

Cheers

Scottie

[vincemunday]

The wait begins...

Very soon YouGov and others will start showing the results of polls which will undoubtedly show a huge decline in the vote for the Tories and a huge surge in the vote for UKIP, unlike Scottie I can’t see anyone that currently supports the Conservatives voting for JC while there is a viable right leaning second option, UKIP will be the main recipient of those votes.

Farage is making more and more noises about coming back into mainstream U.K. politics, bearing in mind the damage he did before by splitting the Tory vote, this will be of huge concern to many sitting mp’s but particularly those who are sitting in marginal seats.

There is a steady trickle of resignations from Brexiteers, at this moment in time there has only been two front bench but that’s almost definitely going to grow.

IMO these three things combined will be the death knell of Theresa May, I don’t see how she can stay much longer.

[Pro V1]

The wait begins...

Very soon YouGov and others will start showing the results of polls which will undoubtedly show a huge decline in the vote for the Tories and a huge surge in the vote for UKIP, unlike Scottie I can’t see anyone that currently supports the Conservatives voting for JC while there is a viable right leaning second option, UKIP will be the main recipient of those votes.

Farage is making more and more noises about coming back into mainstream U.K. politics, bearing in mind the damage he did before by splitting the Tory vote, this will be of huge concern to many sitting mp’s but particularly those who are sitting in marginal seats.

There is a steady trickle of resignations from Brexiteers, at this moment in time there has only been two front bench but that’s almost definitely going to grow.

IMO these three things combined will be the death knell of Theresa May, I don’t see how she can stay much longer.

While you are absolutely correct that very few Conservative voters will vote Labour (particularly with Mr Corbyn at the helm), that really isn't much of an argument. Given how close the last election is, all it takes is a small swing from Conservative to UKIP or Liberal, or indeed Tory supporters just deciding to vote for nobody, to deliver Labour into power. If I were a campaign strategist for Labour, I would be advising them to say as little as possible about Brexit (indeed about anything) - just let the Conservatives tear themselves apart over Europe.

[vincemunday]

Not great news for the Tories, Theresa May has told her MP’s to back her plan or she will pull the plug on Brexit completely, this isn’t sitting well with voters who are already leaving her party in droves.

The latest YouGov poll shows UKIP rising to 8%, a phenominal rise in just under a week, the fightback is happening and Farage hasn’t even retaken the leadership...yet...

The Tories are now showing 4 points behind Labour, Theresa May’s toxicity must be worrying a lot of MP’s, particularly those who sit in marginal seats, based on the current numbers they stand a high chance of losing them to Labour.

Theresa May’s belligerence will only result in UKIP gaining more of the vote, it’s impossible to see how she can survive unless she capitulates to the will of the people, stands by the result of the referendum and her manifesto but I think she’s far to arrogant to do that so my guess is it’s bye bye Mrs May who will go down in history as one of the worst Home Secretary’s and PM’s of all time, there will be a lot of talk on the back benches tomorrow.

[Lone Star]

. . .

Theresa May’s belligerence will only result in UKIP gaining more of the vote, it’s impossible to see how she can survive unless she capitulates to the will of the people, stands by the result of the referendum and her manifesto but I think she’s far to arrogant to do that so my guess is it’s bye bye Mrs May who will go down in history as one of the worst Home Secretary’s and PM’s of all time, there will be a lot of talk on the back benches tomorrow.

Vince, I don't know the difference between a Tory and anything else in the UK (but I do know the relationship between UKIP and Farage), but it stands to reason that if the People of the UK get anything less than what they voted to occur, there will problems -- not to mention that it undermines the legitimacy of their vote and any subsequent election referendum by the People.

It's difficult to watch any country betrayed by its leaders.

Big government legislatures always claim to "fix" the things that they damaged in the first place.

[vincemunday]

A Tory is a conservative, a bit like a republican and Labour are more like your democrats, UKIP is a party that leans to the right but not extremely (despite fake news coverage) that worked hard to exit the EU. Farage, myself and hundreds of others traipsed the streets day after day canvassing for Brexit, some like myself stood for election for local government and were voted in on a scale that was unprecedented, I gave up my portfolio and being a town and district councillor after my mother died and I moved here but I’ve remained very politically active since, particularly to ensure Brexit means Brexit. Myself and Farage go back a long way, he and I worked at an American futures brokerage, he’s a very astute, dedicated and honest man, a rarity among politicians.

[Lone Star]

A Tory is a conservative, a bit like a republican and Labour are more like your democrats, UKIP is a party that leans to the right but not extremely (despite fake news coverage) that worked hard to exit the EU. Farage, myself and hundreds of others traipsed the streets day after day canvassing for Brexit, some like myself stood for election for local government and were voted in on a scale that was unprecedented, I gave up my portfolio and being a town and district councillor after my mother died and I moved here but I’ve remained very politically active since, particularly to ensure Brexit means Brexit. Myself and Farage go back a long way, he and I worked at an American futures brokerage, he’s a very astute, dedicated and honest man, a rarity among politicians.

Thanks for that knowledge and feedback.

I've been a fan of Farage since he came on the scene with UKIP.

[vincemunday]

Will Mrs May wake up and smell the coffee? No, I don’t think she will, this poll clearly demonstrates how people are feeling at the moment, I fear she’s about to feel the wrath of her back bench and the Tory (Conservative) voters, it seems that as there’s more bad news coming out she’s digging her heels in even more, this reminds me a bit of the demise of one of my all time political heroes, Margaret Thatcher who did pretty much the same over poll tax. Let’s hope she goes sooner rather than later, the damage will be much less if she does.

[MrFixer]

Not heard of 'Europe Elects' polling before and I doubt the veracity of their 'Opinium Poll', however any revival of the UKIP
vote will be welcomed by Labour....

[vincemunday]

The poll is by Opinium, Euro Elects is just the blogger.

[Lone Star]

Yes, interesting polls in the UK these days.

A poll by YouGov polled over 4,000 asking who comes closest to being the "Leader" of those in favor of Brexit. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage were the top vote getters.

The poll also revealed that more Tories see the former UKIP leader as head of the Brexit movement than their own leader.

Who do you think comes closest to being the ‘leader’ of those in favour of Brexit?
There is no leader: 34%
Boris Johnson: 15%
Nigel Farage: 13%
Theresa May: 10%
David Davis: 3%
Other: 2%
Michael Gove: 1%
Liam Fox: 1%

There is widespread opposition to May's Brexit plan, keeping the UK tied to EU rules and regulations, with twice as many Brits wanting a clean exit from the EU than those who want May’s “soft Brexit”, according to a poll out earlier this week.

A recent opinion poll for the Observer newspaper had Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party on 40 percent support with the Conservatives trailing on 36 percent – a six-point fall since the beginning of last month.

UKIP, meanwhile, was up 5 points to 8 percent support.

[GT93]

There doesn't seem to be much discussion of Merkel and Macron in here. They are the other side (behind the scenes) in Brexit. They seem to me to be the big players in Brexit. Brexit meant a short to medium term power shift to the EU. The EU was always going to be the casting vote in these negotiations. I think the UK pollies are in gagaland if they think otherwise.

Merkel and Macron determine what jobs leave the UK and in the short term it might be a lot of skilled jobs. May being a woman probably has a ready hotline to Merkel. She can run things by Merkel but it's so damn complicated Merkel probably can't just say yes or no. But she can be a sounding board for a "green" British government. As time runs out, I think these kind of channels count for more. Merkel and Macron are probably quite happy that the UK fiasco deters others from leaving.

[Lone Star]

Another resignation reached PM May's desk.

Philip Davies packed his bags due to the “soft Brexit” plan. Trust is waning that May can follow through with a clean Brexit break since her Chequers white paper continues to lock the UK into EU rules on goods.

“Politics is all about trust and once it is lost it is impossible to win back. Many people have told me that as a result of this they have lost trust in the PM to properly and fully deliver the referendum result. It is with much sadness that I have to say that I have also lost trust in her to deliver the referendum result.”

“Failure to keep our promise to the electorate will almost certainly lead to the catastrophe of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and I cannot sit back and allow that to happen.

“Therefore I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that I have no alternative but to send a letter to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee asking him for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister.”

[vincemunday]

Both Macron and Merkel are fighting for their political lives and certainly won't have any say in what jobs remain or leave the UK, that decision will be made by the companies themselves.