Will the EU succeed or fail?

[tamada]

But like a lot of long-term EU leaders, her standing on her home-front pales in comparison to her global facade. Even the relative noob Macron already has a mountain of woe to climb on his domestic agenda. They may deflect and make much of May's fractured leadership of the Tories but their own sand castles are perilously close to their own incoming tide. I just wish that the odious piece of federalist phlegm Verhofstadt would get taken away on a swift ebb tide.

The EU isn't about to openly tout one EU member state's leadership quality above any other or the one to rally round and promote even when their own raison d'être is being challenged so profoundly. That just wouldn't be cricket.

...or Pétanque.

[vincemunday]

I’m not sure Merkel’s opinion counts as much as it used to, Verhofstadt, Tusk and even the bedraggled drunkard Junker carry more weight these days and as Tam says, Macron puffs his chest up and does a bit of shouty politics hoping to bolster his ratings back home but the French aren’t falling for it any more than the Germans are with Merkel, the politicians from the Eastern states are appealing more to their voters with their anti immigration and stand alone policies (be that right or wrong) and the political scene Europe wide is shifting to the right, particularly in Germany it would seem where the far right wing AfD are gaining popularity much quicker than anyone expected. Most of the parties that are gaining popularity also happen to be Eurosceptics, I think the EU has an uphill struggle politically and economically because as countries like the U.K. leave the gravy train will have less money to spend keeping it all together.

[saint]

Many countries within Europe will suffer the cost of brexit .
Im not just talking about the financial hole that will be left post brexit , without our 20% of budget contribution .
Trade will be effected just as much in Europe as it will by the U K
The difference is whilst we will be able to negotiate trade deals from around the world to cover our loses to a large degree, E U countries will not unless it is sanctioned by some faceless buerocrat in Brussels.

[vincemunday]

All of what you say is 100% correct saint, however, I don’t see trade being affected one way or the other to be honest, this is all a lot of bluster, we will still want Bavarian cars and French wine and they will still want our beef etc, nothing will change, the manufacturers, growers and service providers will prove to be very resilient and will find solutions BEFORE we leave the EU, They will find a way of getting the product to the customer irrespective of the bullsh*t the bureaucrats try to barter with, for example can you imagine it if the Chunnel couldn’t take passengers for a few days? It would implode!

[saint]

Long term trade will be effected , to our advantage .
We will be free to do business with who ever we want .
So we will be buying more wine from Australia , South africa ect , especially when some of the tariffs forced on these countries by the E U , no longer exist for us.
As for Bavarian cars most are now produced world wide, cheaper than in Germany , so we again should benefit form a non inflated German price.

[yartims]

Bulgaria has lost 2 million citizens since joining the EU ...the country is still dirt poor after joining the EU because of corruption

https://www.novinite.com/articles/19264 ... sk+Ranking

[tamada]

Bulgaria has lost 2 million citizens since joining the EU ...the country is still dirt poor after joining the EU because of corruption

https://www.novinite.com/articles/19264 ... sk+Ranking

So when you say they've 'lost' a couple mill people, I assume that you mean they've become economic refugees INSIDE the EU and are freely migrating to where there's jobs and money INSIDE the EU?

[vincemunday]

I think the point Yartims is making isn't so much that people are migrating to where the jobs are but more that if the wealth were distributed more evenly and the corruption was sorted out there might not and perhaps should not be the need for them to migrate in the first place, its undeniable that the old communist bloc countries are economically much worse of than the northern states, a cynic might think that this is purposely done to supply cheap labour to the factories and farms of Germany, France and England, good job I'm not cynical eh!

[tamada]

I think the point Yartims is making isn't so much that people are migrating to where the jobs are but more that if the wealth were distributed more evenly and the corruption was sorted out there might not and perhaps should not be the need for them to migrate in the first place, its undeniable that the old communist bloc countries are economically much worse of than the northern states, a cynic might think that this is purposely done to supply cheap labour to the factories and farms of Germany, France and England, good job I'm not cynical eh!

I saw that point and agree. The EU expansionism hasn't kept up with their grand plan for equal wealth redistribution. The biggest carrot of 'free movement' hasn't inspired the brightest and best of new-member nations to move to where their talents are better rewarded but it has stimulated the great unwashed with rising bills and mouths to feed to get on a bus.

In that regard, I recall one of the oft repeated UK television interviews with the younger, disaffected remain voters in the aftermath of the vote to leave. Young lass was all upset that she probably wouldn't be able to go and travel and work somewhere else. That was it. Her biggest take from the biggest political decision in generations was she would be unable to take her talented, working butt somewhere other than her homeland. Now, as oilfield trash and international gypsy since I graduated, I am not an advocate of limiting your work horizons to Mon-Fri 6 to 5 but I thought that girls comment reflected badly on what a poor job Project Fear did back than. She was going to take her degree and run while those from (say) Bulgaria without any certificate of education would pass her headed the other way at the bus station.

[vincemunday]

These morons are too young to remember the little window at Dover dock where you queued up for a couple or minutes, paid 50p and got your green slip of paper to put in your passport which allowed you to travel to Europe, I'm pretty sure with all the tech we have these days we could return to that "hard border" idea for tourists.

[Giggle]

Even the oilfield trash has left. Man, what a desperate country. May is about to bend over and take a big one in the blurter. She's negotiating for a 12-month extension. What an absolute moron. She's toast, just like cavalier Dave Cameron, for allowing the pig-ignorant Brit citizenry think for a moment they might have a say in the direction of their country. Cameron gave you oiks too much credit.

[mech_401]

not many yanks commenting on the EU thread?
eh, (1) giggle is equal to a platoon, i just don't
see need for more of us on this thread

[vincemunday]

To be honest I silenced him, I couldn't be doing with his dross any more.

[GT93]

I read somewhere recently that the Spaniards look likely to have the greatest life expectancy in the world if present trends continue. That's an important quality of life indicator that is a mark of a very successful country.

It seems a bit surprising given how difficult things have been economically in Spain for some time now.

[vincemunday]

It looks like the little window might be making a reappearance at Dover docks, Macron sensibly doing what’s best for France, why would you make it difficult for millions of annual visitors and the billions of Euros in revenue? Anyone who thinks that they’d turn this business away is a moron, as I said...status quo... one way or the other. For the children among you, I hated the band too.

Macron: Brexit visa fears are 'fake news' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45902017

[saint]

Exactly . Just like the Germans will not see 30%of their car production slide. Can you imagine the social chaos Germany would suffer if their car plants went on a 3 day week . Never going to happen.
All this brexit blundering is smoke and mirrors

[yartims]

france is like blighty in the 70s with wildcat strikes and unruly farmers ready to take to the streets ..no french gumment has ever managed to change things in this respect ..macron would be in deep trouble with no deal

[vincemunday]

A huge development that's not really being very widely reported is an attempt by Steve Baker to make the backstop illegal, should he succeed and there's every possibility he will, its game over for Theresa May and her Chequers plan, she's been lucky so far but I can't see how she could weather the upcoming storm. My worry is that she so cherishes being PM that a malicious goodbye might occur with her calling a general election which could result in a Labour government run by Corbyn, Abbott etc, a scary prospect in itself.

Leading Brexiter tries to kill Northern Ireland backstop http://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-20/lead ... -backstop/

[tamada]

"What the leading Brexiter, Baker - who organises the European Research Group of Tory MPs - is doing more precisely is making it impossible for the backstop to be introduced without the approval of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

His reasonable presumption is that this would never happen because a) it is in abeyance with no timetable to be restored and b) even if it was restored the DUP would never vote for it.

But in making the backstop only applicable if the devolved government gave assent, he makes it harder for May to reject his amendments."

That could well and truly blow the wheels clean off May's cherished Chequersmobile and maybe more.

[yartims]

Teresa the appeaser says its 95% done and dusted so far but we wait and see