Udon Map wrote: ↑June 30, 2019, 9:32 am
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In summary, then, after substantial losses, the market has now recovered to where it was after eight years of a consistent, steady uptrend during the Obama years.
Now that he has the first six months under his belt (when one could reasonably argue that the market was carried to some extent by momentum from the Obama years), let's see what happens during the second half of Trump's first year.
I have never seen markets respond to the PAST -- only to current domestic and foreign events, to future expectations and consumer sentiment (current and future) whether positive or negative. For you to claim that the first two years of stock market movement during Trump's administration belong to Obama due to "momentum" is ridiculous. This would only be true if Trump followed previous policies, which he has not. To the contrary, Trump has reversed much of what Obama did, which has had a huge impact on the economy's drivers. Immediately after the November election in 2016, the market spiked north based on future expectations.
As I have stated previously (and will not repeat in detail since it available for further reading in this thread and others), the stock market does NOT drive the economy. Other components drive the economy, which in turn drive the stock market. If the stock market did indeed drive the economy, Obama would not be the only president in US history NOT to average at least a 2% annual GDP number. The economy's growth under Obama averaged less than 1.5% annually according to US News & World Report. This reflects Main Street losing while Wall Street was winning in the stock market. Other evidence that Main Street losing during the Obama years was the fact that more people were on welfare and food stamps than ever in US history, and the most employable Americans out of the workforce ever in US history. Wages were flat.
Trump has managed to close the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street and have growth in both simultaneously with the tax cuts and massive cuts in regulation. The energy sector has been unleashed and the war on business is over.
Even when markets were spiking downward in a bottom-testing event and due to a stupid Fed comment, market drivers continued to cause the entire US economy to roar. Jobs continued to be created. Wages continued to rise. Consumer spending and optimism remained high. Unemployment stayed low. Inflation remained almost nonexistent, and the US is now in an economic position never before attained where there are over 1.5 million more jobs than Americans seeking work.
Everything was supposed to be HORRIBLE by now BECAUSE TRUMP. All of the haters ignore all the dire America-ending predictions of fellow haters and propagandists: world war, recession, stock market crash, NATO ends, global warming killing everything, blah blah blah.
Regardless of what the market does, which is only one component to measure in all that happens, the economy overall is still highly efficient and humming along.
he's already done Chamberlain's "I have a paper in my pocket" speech 