Coronavirus Now in Thailand !!

[AlexO]

The way I book it is it’s THEIR country, THEIR festival and definitely THEIR choice.

Fine Vince. Just as long as they stop bullpooing and tell everyone what the risks involved are. Its still some 6 weeks away so lets just see how things evolve. Who knows, there maybe a global lockdown before then.

[747man]

And there are now 90 Confirmed Cases in The U.K. But It's O.K Folks,Some of the EXPERTS are saying it's only FLU....

[joudon]

I do not understand why the figures always show how many people have tested positive and hospitalised, but do not tell how many have been released from hospital ,obviously cured. Perhaps that would mean the fear factor might diminish.... Just a thought ?

[Pooclover]

I do not understand why the figures always show how many people have tested positive and hospitalised, but do not tell how many have been released from hospital ,obviously cured. Perhaps that would mean the fear factor might diminish.... Just a thought ?

All that info here


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[AlexO]

I do not understand why the figures always show how many people have tested positive and hospitalised, but do not tell how many have been released from hospital ,obviously cured. Perhaps that would mean the fear factor might diminish.... Just a thought ?

Pretty simple joudon, plenty of articles confirming fatality rate of between 2/3% of infected. So for every 100 who catch it there are around 2/3 souls who go to meet their maker. Does not sound a lot but the way this virus is spreading it could mean quite a few deaths 'on top' of the winter flu and Thai road traffic accident fatalities that certain people like to refer to.

[logboy]

Here are the newest figures from today:

The university's statement shows that 95,748 have been or are infected with covid-19.

3286 have died of the disease.
39,044 remain ill.
53,418 are declared healthy again.

[pal52]

I do not understand why the figures always show how many people have tested positive and hospitalised, but do not tell how many have been released from hospital ,obviously cured. Perhaps that would mean the fear factor might diminish.... Just a thought ?

Check this wesite it gives you all the latest figures
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

[joudon]

Thanks pal52. I was very remiss in my post. It is UK , who are not supplying this info. so delaying my decision for a visit soon. It calls to mind that if the UK are obviously massaging the figures, where do we go from here.

[stattointhailand]

Take a trip to US instead joudon, they have Mike Pence praying for them (and the stock prices) so all is well over the pond

[Khun Paul]

Interesting item in the report listed from Doctors who treated those infected in Wuhan, China.
1, it seems that the vast majority of people who die do have other immune suppressing problems.
2 There were some instances of younger people dying but no definite proof that it was the Virus or otherwise
3 There is a likelihood ( albeit remote ) of those who had the virus, hospitalised and declared clear MAY have that virus return at a later date .

The report was an eye opener and would reinforces my currently held beliefs that it is generally a mild virus but other circumstances can make it deadly like infections etc. The Chinese use a drug that suppresses the immune system , that was part of the sudden rise in cases and deaths.

To summarise basically if your an average person with no other health problems you will be okay , hoswever if you are already undergoing treatment for illnesses that have or are in the process of lowering your own immune system then there is a risk , the older you are the greater the risk .
Personal Hygiene is important and I still see people returning from the toilet NOT washing their hands , people coughing and spitting . So self isolation NOT BECAUSE I FEEL ILL, but to protect myself from the those whose habits are to say the least unwelcome

[AlexO]

COVID19 SLEEP WALKING TO DISASTER:
The number of people we've heard from that think COVID19 is just the Flu is off the scales. These are people who read headlines and look at pictures but struggle to digest facts. They also clearly have no elderly relatives to care about, or they don't care..
> Common Flu requires 0.6% hospitalisation annually, fewer than 0.2% die of the flu, Covid19 requires 15% critical care, it has a 3.4% mortality rate. World Health Organization Reports Global Mortality Rate For COVID-19 Is 3.4%
https://www.chattanoogan.com/…/World-He ... ization-Re…
> COVID19 - Is a novel virus, there is no immunity to it in the general population, therefore it spreads more virally, there are no firewalls to its spread. There are no vaccines. Very large numbers of people, as in Wuhan, could be infected over a very short period of time, overwhelming health care services.
> COVID19 has a high R03 spread rate. Many of those who catch it may show no signs, it also has an incubation period of up to 24 days or more. It can exist on solid surfaces for up to 72 hours.
> International governments are not creating hysteria, they have their nations top scientific and medical advisors advising them. They are reacting to a pandemic which threatens to swamp existing medical services, in any nation that happens the mortality rate will skyrocket.
No government will survive if they fail to prepare now whilst they still have time, and this results in hospitals being swamped, health care workers going down ill, the medical supply chain failing and mortality spiralling.
China had to close its entire economy down for 4 weeks, large parts of the country remain locked down. Is the West going to have to follow China? Despite having been given substantial warning time to react more vigorously now, in testing, preparation, mobilisation and control. Flights from high risk regions need to stop. Mass gatherings over 5,000 people need to be banned. Spanish Flu infected most of Philadelphia during a War Bonds rally in 1918, thousands died as hospitals were swamped. We are not learning either from history or the present.

I will just leave this here, cannot be sure if overstating the possible outcome but most of it seems factual.

[jai yen yen]

Interesting item in the report listed from Doctors who treated those infected in Wuhan, China.
1, it seems that the vast majority of people who die do have other immune suppressing problems.
2 There were some instances of younger people dying but no definite proof that it was the Virus or otherwise
3 There is a likelihood ( albeit remote ) of those who had the virus, hospitalised and declared clear MAY have that virus return at a later date .

The report was an eye opener and would reinforces my currently held beliefs that it is generally a mild virus but other circumstances can make it deadly like infections etc. The Chinese use a drug that suppresses the immune system , that was part of the sudden rise in cases and deaths.

To summarise basically if your an average person with no other health problems you will be okay , hoswever if you are already undergoing treatment for illnesses that have or are in the process of lowering your own immune system then there is a risk , the older you are the greater the risk .
Personal Hygiene is important and I still see people returning from the toilet NOT washing their hands , people coughing and spitting . So self isolation NOT BECAUSE I FEEL ILL, but to protect myself from the those whose habits are to say the least unwelcome

. This is true, actually the only time I ever get sick is when I am at work where I am close to a lot of people. I work with film crews and we have up to 150 or more in close quarters and eating from the same catering truck. A recipe for disaster.

[Mike-Quebec]

Thailand situation update on 4 March 2020

Total number of people who met the criteria of patients under investigation (PUI) 3,895 Case

Undergoing treatment (Private hospitals: 874 cases, Government hospitals: 671 cases) 1,577 Case

Recovered from illnesses and discharged from the hospitals 2,269 Case

According the the Thai Government they are not COVID-19 they are viral Pneumonia

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/e ... 040363.pdf

[747man]

From www.dailymail.com

15 MILLION people will die and the global economy will take a $2.3 TRILLION hit from coronavirus in the BEST-CASE scenario, new study predicts
Research by Australian National University lays out a range of virus outcomes
In the worst case, the global death toll could reach a staggering 68million
Some countries' economies could shrink by eight per cent in a global meltdown
By TIM STICKINGS FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 10:29 GMT, 6 March 2020 | UPDATED: 11:40 GMT, 6 March 2020

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The global death toll from coronavirus could reach as high as 15million even in the best-case pandemic scenario, a new study says.

The research by the Australian National University also found that global GDP could shrink by as much as $2.3trillion even in what they call a 'low-end' pandemic.

In the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million including hundreds of thousands of deaths in Britain and the United States.

In that worst-case pandemic, some countries' economies would shrink by as much as eight per cent in a global meltdown.

A man wearing a protective mask walks in front of a display board at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, amid warnings of a global meltdown because of coronavirus +2
A man wearing a protective mask walks in front of a display board at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, amid warnings of a global meltdown because of coronavirus

The two researchers who published the paper, Warwick McKibbon and Roshen Fernando, warn that 'even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run'.

In the so-called 'low-severity' case, the death rate in China is estimated at around two per cent and adjusted for other countries.

The global death rate has been drifting higher than that in recent weeks, currently hovering around 3.4 per cent.

In that 'low-end' pandemic, the study estimates that more than 15million people would die within the first year of the outbreak, which started in China last December.

The estimates suggest that India and China would each lose millions of people, with more than 230,000 people killed in the United States.

Britain - which has only seen one death so far - could expect to see 64,000 fatalities, with 79,000 in Germany and 60,000 in France.

South Korea and Italy, which have suffered particularly widespread outbreaks in recent weeks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths, the study says.

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In that scenario, Britain's GDP would drop by around 1.5 per cent, with America's economy shrinking by 2.0 per cent.

The global economy would take a $2.3billion hit, the researchers estimate, with Australia and Germany also forecast to slide into severe recessions.

In the 'high-severity' forecast, the coronavirus outbreak would cause a catastrophic death toll of more than 68million people around the world, researchers say.

The dead would include more than 12million people in China alone, as well as 1.1million in the United States.

Britain's death toll would be a catastrophic 290,000, with Germany and France likewise losing hundreds of thousands of people.

Russia's fatality count would also be approaching a million in that scenario, the researchers' data shows.

In that disastrous outcome, the global economy would take a $9.2trillion hit with many countries facing very deep recessions.

Medical staff in protective suits check information on sheets of paper at a hospital in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began +2
Medical staff in protective suits check information on sheets of paper at a hospital in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began

The British economy would shrink by 6.0 per cent in 2020 in that scenario - worse than the 4.2 per cent drop it suffered at the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Meanwhile the U.S. economy would suffer an 8.4 per cent drop in a recession which would reverberate around the world.

There is also a 'mid-severity' estimate, in which the global death toll would be around 38million and the global economic hit around $5.3trillion.

Researchers say that the probablity of any of their projected outcomes are 'highly uncertain'.

'The goal is not to be definitive about the virus outbreak but to provide important information about a range of possible economic costs of the disease,' they say.

They add: 'Amidst the slowing down of the Chinese economy with interruptions to production, the functioning of global supply chains has been disrupted.'

'Companies across the world, irrespective of size, dependent upon inputs from China have started experiencing contractions in production.

'Transport being limited and even restricted among countries has further slowed down global economic activities.

'Most importantly, some panic among consumers and firms has distorted usual consumption patterns and created market anomalies.

'Global financial markets have also been responsive to the changes and global stock indices have plunged.

'Amidst the global turbulence, in an initial assessment, the International Monetary Fund expects China to slow down by 0.4 percentage points compared to its initial growth target to 5.6 per cent, also slowing down global growth by 0.1 percentage points.'

The researchers say that a 'range of policy responses will be required' to prevent disaster.

The current global death toll is 3,383 out of 98,703 confirmed cases.

Most of them are in China, but the virus has been spreading faster in other hotspots such as Italy, Iran and South Korea in recent weeks.

Tokyo stocks ended the morning session more than three percent lower on Friday, as worries over the spread of the new coronavirus intensified.

Some countries have already announced an economic stimulus, with Italy yesterday unveiling plans to loosen its budgetary rules.

[tamada]

Thanks pal52. I was very remiss in my post. It is UK , who are not supplying this info. so delaying my decision for a visit soon. It calls to mind that if the UK are obviously massaging the figures, where do we go from here.

Massaging what? The only change in the daily announcements in the UK is the location of these infections. This is due to the irrelevance of such detail and the fact that some people will mistakenly take the fact that it's not happening where they live, then they don't need to take precautions.

I have just survived 10 days in Oswaldtwistle BTW. Quiz night at the pub was busy... As usual.

[tamada]

Thailand situation update on 4 March 2020

Total number of people who met the criteria of patients under investigation (PUI) 3,895 Case

Undergoing treatment (Private hospitals: 874 cases, Government hospitals: 671 cases) 1,577 Case

Recovered from illnesses and discharged from the hospitals 2,269 Case

According the the Thai Government they are not COVID-19 they are viral Pneumonia

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/e ... 040363.pdf

Since viral pneumonia is what most people that get exposed and succumb to Covid-19 end up being DIAGNOSED with, makes sense to label it by effect rather than cause. This and quoting the far greater numbers that die from common and garden influenza keeps it all in perspective.

[AlexO]

Since viral pneumonia is what most people that get exposed and succumb to Covid-19 end up being DIAGNOSED with, makes sense to label it by effect rather than cause. This and quoting the far greater numbers that die from common and garden influenza keeps it all in perspective.
[/quote]

I am sorry Tam but I cannot see the "sense" in hiding the 'cause' of the illness. If these people did not contract COVID-19 would they have the same viral pneumonia?? To hide the true numbers of people suffering (or not depending on the symptoms experienced) in Thailand to me is gross mismanagement of a situation that will only get worse. As for your reference to c and g influenza deaths, these totals are for whole winter/outbreak durations. COVID-19 has only been an issue for about 8 weeks and is spreading rapidly.

[noosard]

Melbourne GP clinic closed after doctor tests positive for coronavirus
Updated 27 minutes ago

A white building with signage that reads "The Toorak Clinic", with pharmaceutical goods in the shop front.
PHOTO: The Toorak Clinic has been temporarily closed in the wake of the GP testing positive. (Google Maps)
A doctor who recently returned from the US and since treated dozens of patients has become Victoria's 11th confirmed coronavirus case, health authorities have said.

State Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the GP was confirmed to have the virus last night, six days after returning from overseas, and was now recovering at home.

The doctor, from the Toorak Clinic in Malvern Road, consulted about 70 patients between March 2 and yesterday, Ms Mikakos said.

He also treated two patients at a nursing home in Malvern during that time.

The nursing home residents have been isolated in their rooms and the Toorak Clinic has been closed until further notice.

All patients seen by the doctor and clinic staff are being contacted by the Department of Health and Human Services and are required to isolate themselves at home for 14 days.

"I have to say I am flabbergasted that a doctor that has flu-like symptoms has presented to work," Ms Mikakos said.

"Our advice to the community is that if you have returned from overseas and are experiencing cold or flu-like symptoms then please stay home. Do not go to work.

"You should self isolate until such time as you are able to be presenting to a doctor, getting medical advice about whether you potentially have over COVID-19."

The GP became unwell with a runny nose on an internal flight from Denver to San Francisco on February 27. He then flew direct from San Francisco to Melbourne on United Airlines flight UA0060, arriving about 9:30am on February 29.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-07/ ... r/12023438

So this doc has been travelling the world in the last 14 days
How many people has he been in contact with and how many people have those people been in contact with
Are they all now in 14 days quarantine

Now that will be a big fat NO
This is just 1 example of the chance of mass contamination

[tamada]

<double post... again. Maybe my PC has Covid-19 already!>

[tamada]

I am sorry Tam but I cannot see the "sense" in hiding the 'cause' of the illness. If these people did not contract COVID-19 would they have the same viral pneumonia?? To hide the true numbers of people suffering (or not depending on the symptoms experienced) in Thailand to me is gross mismanagement of a situation that will only get worse. As for your reference to c and g influenza deaths, these totals are for whole winter/outbreak durations. COVID-19 has only been an issue for about 8 weeks and is spreading rapidly.

If you look at the PUI numbers updated and published daily by the Thai DPH, there's absolutely nothing being hidden. Thousands of people have been and continue to be tested every day. Where are these "numbers of people suffering" from Covid-19? Is it possible that thousands of Covid-19 victims in Thailand are being either ignored or hidden away in gulags somewhere? Warehouses full of body bags anyone? Family members being paid to keep quiet?

If one has been exposed to Covid-19, unless one is asymptomatic, then there's a high likelihood that viral pneumonia will ensue, especially with the elderly, those with compromised immune systems or pre-existing conditions.

As soon one embraces the idea that Covid-19 infection is an inevitability regardless of how old you are, where you live, what your lifestyle is and what your government claims is doing, then this pressing need to be kept current on dodging the bullet evaporates. This bullet cannot easily be dodged if at all. It's a morbid fascination with trying to avoid an inevitability which won't make it any easier if/when it strikes.

Would you be happier if the Thai government had announced the same rate of Covid-19 infections as other SE Asian nations are reporting? I am pretty confident that their 'honesty' would be quickly denigrated as more evidence of how pathetically unprepared the hopeless Thai authorities, etc., etc., etc.. You know, the usual Thai bashing. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.