A little ray of sunshine from Australia

[jackspratt]

Interesting.

I don't see any Trump "haters" (which is a very loaded term) here. However, I do see a number of posters who recognise the various serious, and numerous, shortcomings of the current POTUS, and can accurately articulate their thoughts.

I also see a few posters who still believe the sun shines out of his derrière, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

So please continue on with your reasonable discussions ........ but be prepared to accept that others may or may not agree with you, and will feel free to say so.

Meanwhile, back in Oz, the numbers are starting to look slightly positive, but no time to relax.

[Whistler]

Jack,

Resorting to personal ---- is simply an indication that they cannot refute the facts. We see the same in somebody else that should have more dignity, but prefers petty name calling and claims of Fake News.

If you cannot play the ball, play the man. I prefer to let the true facts speak for themselves.

[noosard]

Oz to make decision on which modelling option to take today
All will have major long term problems

[noosard]

Vic police see some sense
withdrawal of $1652 fine given to L plater for driving

Wonder why shark victim and friends not fined in Qld

[saint]

I dont know about a little ray of sunshine !!!!
There should be a very dark cloud over Australia today .

[Whistler]

Pell?

[noosard]

I dont know about a little ray of sunshine !!!!
There should be a very dark cloud over Australia today .

believe it is raining in the south east

[Barney]

Interesting.

Meanwhile, back in Oz, the numbers are starting to look slightly positive, but no time to relax.

I’ll just copy paste this.
Figures do not appear to high.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Whistler]

Where did you figures come from Barney? Some lunatic site? Please name your source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics for 2017 were 1255 for the whole of the year. 2017 was the worst year in recent history for this disease, around 3 to 4 times worse that other years. Even then there were 251,000 cases where ion average there are around 90,000 a year. None of your figures come close to matching official data. 2018 had a major decline from this peak (see second link)

However, that is not nearly the whole story. A huge proportion of these were the very old, where pneumonia was the final cause. My own mother died that year with cause of death listed as pneumonia so no autopsy was required. She was 91, suffering from advanced Alzheimer's, Cancer and massive heart problems.

Your post is not only wrong it is incredibly misleading. If there had been no shutdown, the death rate and infection rate would have been massively higher.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.ns ... nfluenza~5

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/major-decli ... hs-in-2018

[tamada]

Interesting.

Meanwhile, back in Oz, the numbers are starting to look slightly positive, but no time to relax.

I’ll just copy paste this.
Figures do not appear to high.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just as in other countries, it looks like a few in Australia still don't understand that this is not 'just the flu'.

[pipoz4444]

Just the status

At least the daily number of Cases, being recorded, from 02 April is now declining from those that were reported in March – It is down to about 100 new cases per day, so some hope

pipoz4444

[Whistler]

Yes pip, it has been declining, that's what lockdowns are supposed to do.

No sure about the logic here. The lockdown was effective in reducing the number of infections and deaths, but as the number of deaths and infections has been reduced, the lowered numbers prove the lockdown was a waste of effort becuase the numbers were low ????

I wonder why Barney saw fit to make his post, the figures are wrong. What was the point?

[pipoz4444]

Yes pip, it has been declining, that's what lockdowns are supposed to do.

No sure about the logic here. The lockdown was effective in reducing the number of infections and deaths, but as the number of deaths and infections has been reduced, the lowered numbers prove the lockdown was a waste of effort becuase the numbers were low ????

I wonder why Barney saw fit to make his post, the figures are wrong. What was the point?

I have to disagree somewhat. The lock downs are a necessity to mitigate/reduce the person to person transfer. Call it slowing down the size of the snowball, as it rolls downhill.

If you slow down the person to person new cases, it then gives time to the infected ones to recover and then eventually you have a larger number of recovered persons (immune) at a time when you have a lower number of newly infected persons (i.e. reported new case).

You must also remember that while the reporting of the case numbers may be transparent in some countries and arguably accurate in Australia, it doesn’t necessary reflect exactly how many people have contracted the Covid 19.

If the statistics to date are any indicator, then a large number of the cases are being reported or categorized as “Mild” and within the Mild Category a large percentage are not necessarily showing problematic symptoms, so possible not reporting it as Covid 19.

This being the Case the Australian Covid 19 infected numbers could be very different to the reported new case numbers. Conceivably 2 or 3 times greater that the 5,906 reported case numbers to date. That means a lot more undetected infected people out there interacting/socializing, possibly some without knowing it.

You need to give the "Recorded Recovery Numbers" time to catch up to the "Reported (or known) Case Numbers, because the actual Recovery Numbers. Both the numbers of people being infected and the numbers of people recovering are most likely to be understated. This is not deliberate in some Countries but obviously is in Others

Also, from "Date of when Reported as a new Case" to Date of when Recorded as Recovered", is arguably 3 possibly 4 weeks, for the same Person, depending on how conservative the Governments are with declaring when a person has recovered. They don't disclose this time period.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/ ... y/12104118

pipoz4444

[Whistler]

Agree with everything you say.

It's no different to planning almost everything. There are leading indicators and trailing indicators, when planning the launch of new software to the market, knowing it my take 2 years, I tracked leading indicators knowing actual sales would be the last (if not the most important) proof of success. Leading indicators were number of enquiries, number of quotes delivered, prospect pipeline from the sales force. So strategy was to make contact, engage in target market etc, do that right and eventually sales should happen, and I could measure those leading indicators to see if campaign strategy was sound and on the right path.

Attacking COVIT 19 is no different,

Leading indicator was reported new cases, getting that figure down required the strategy of lockdown and to conduct testing as much as possible so you were reporting true numbers.

Trailing indicators are deaths and recoveries, it takes time for the virus to complete it's life cycle. Contaminations are dropping, but death rates have been increasing, a quite logical outcome given the liefcycle.

There is no doubt that carriers may feel little of no effect, but still be carriers, and not tracked, even more reason that the lockdown was so important, it had to be kept for a long enough period to cover the 14 day incubation period.

We will get a cure sometime down the line, our only way to do this is to invoke the shutdown and hope we slow the bugger down until there is a cure. An awful blow to the economy, which is just as worrying, what a tough balancing act.

None of this explains Barney's post

[noosard]

Barney's post also has Scotty saying vaccine key to easing restrictions
Now when is a vaccine going to be avaliable time how long is a piece of string

[Whistler]

Morrison said a lot more, he impressed me with his commonsense approach, in the past I had zero time for the guy, but I really think he has stepped up to the plate.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-w ... s-c-950872

[trekkertony]

One can only imagine the world of hurt that Australia would be in right now if Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull was the PM in this trying time.

[Whistler]

Seems Barney was happy enough to drop his ---- post on this site then scurry back under his rock, he has been on the forum a few times but wont disclose where this misinformation comes from. If it is from an Australian site, the authors deserve to be exposed and hopefully prosecuted. Well done Barney, I hope you are proud of yourself.

[jackspratt]

One can only imagine the world of hurt that Australia would be in right now if Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull was the PM in this trying time.

One can imagine what one likes, tony.

It is generally accepted that Scotty from Marketing is doing a good job, but no-one knows whether Shorten or Turnbull would be handling the situation far better, the same, or far worse.

Tony Abbott on the other hand............

[Whistler]

One can only imagine the world of hurt that Australia would be in right now if Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull was the PM in this trying time.

Bill Shorten first came into the public's eye with his involvement in the Beaconsfield Mine disaster where he rallied the union movement to get behind an extraordinary rescue of the trapped miners. His credentials in that emergency were impeccable.

I suspect he would have been faster off the mark than Scomo who while doing a good job now, squandered many days before he took any decisive action.

I am no fan of Shorten, in fact I resigned from the labor party after clashing with him and the Right wing pricks in NSW labor before the last Federal election, so not talking him up one little bit