The source of the coronvirus??

[Whistler]

Demand for Chinese goods will drop by much more than the 30% drop in GDP. I really do not have enough data to guesstimate the real figure, but I would not be surprised to see an 80% drop.

Why?

20% to 30% of income and often higher goes on mortgage or rental.
10% on food?
? percent on debt interest
? percent on utilities
? percent on travel/petrol

if incomes drop by 30% overall, that top 30% is discretionary spending, if that is no longer there?

No new IPhomes, TV's kitchen gadgets, new cars, new clothes. All of these items are heavily weighted to Chinese manufacturing. People will not have the money, their salaries will be absorbed by the basics. Chinese manufacturing, exports etc are stuffed. No rolling over your mobile phone every 2 years, you will keep for 4 years maybe

in turn, Chinese middle income earners will reduce travel, spend less. Thailand's tourist market is stuffed.

China's need for energy, need for raw materials and infrastructure will slow. Their suppliers like Australia are stuffed.

There is a whole lot of pain for the next few years.

The Thai Bhat will drop, souffles never rise twice.

[Barney]

Not much substance in that post whistler, most if not all is pure speculation. When you have your data then post what is in your true numbers.
The Chinese will do ok, but, like saint I would like to see a fall at the first few hurdles.
The Chinese have filled as many universities as they can and in doing so turned education into a business. Which is crying out like any business now. Especially the lefty unis in Aussie. Also large investment in many poor countries for a dividend to be called on if they are in trouble. Additionally they own huge amount of land holdings and businesses overseas that the regular punter doesn’t know about. The majority of their overseas construction projects are manned by their own people flown in at cheaper than local cheap labour. Even the cheap Indian labour in the Middle East can’t compete. The arabs now go cheapest. So once travel restrictions are lifted it will be business as usual.


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[tamada]

You can always use Google.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... rts-tumble

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

Up

...up

...and away.

Climbing!

[Whistler]

Not much substance in that post whistler, most if not all is pure speculation. When you have your data then post what is in your true numbers.
The Chinese will do ok, but, like saint I would like to see a fall at the first few hurdles.
The Chinese have filled as many universities as they can and in doing so turned education into a business. Which is crying out like any business now. Especially the lefty unis in Aussie. Also large investment in many poor countries for a dividend to be called on if they are in trouble. Additionally they own huge amount of land holdings and businesses overseas that the regular punter doesn’t know about. The majority of their overseas construction projects are manned by their own people flown in at cheaper than local cheap labour. Even the cheap Indian labour in the Middle East can’t compete. The arabs now go cheapest. So once travel restrictions are lifted it will be business as usual.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You Effinng idiot Barney,

The professor who introduced Asians into Australia universities was not Chinese. It was Dr Tony Sidwell in South Australia in what is now known as the University of South Australia = USA. At the time it was known as SAIT.

Tony did this as a revenue raising exercise to supplement his inadequate budget for his Construction and Building faculty. His model then spread to other Universities. It was also not a Chinese target, Tony went to Singapore and Malaysia to build his commercial model, later he went to HK and that led to Chinese students moving to Oz universities.

Not a Chinese initiative at all.

[GT93]

And the various Australian governments gave it the green light.

China is a global superpower so it behaves as one. When others nations have been global superpowers they haven't behaved very well. They've used their might to exploit other countries.

[GT93]

No accounting for taste Dean

I enjoy Tsing Tao but I don't think my taste buds are connected to some sort of fundamental reality or truth that escapes others.

I think the initial Chinese response to the virus was just incompetence from local officials. When the Chinese state got involved, it was unlike the US and UK still to this day, competently managed. Sure there was a period where they should have been more open but they seem to me to have been way more truthful than Trump.

The next pandemic could easily come from an animal such as a pig and could first arise in a western country. The current pandemic has shown how hopelessly unprepared western countries would be to a pandemic arising in their own countries.

It appears you agree with the Chinese official figures , and you think the local officials were to blame ? is that correct .
If you honestly believe that the the officials in Bejing were in the dark for even a nano second in the country that has more survaylance of its people than any other , and that they did not know what was happening for the start , then im afraid you are more naive than i first though .

No. Local officials lie all the time in China. I have read that when senior national officials are out visiting the provinces their chauffeurs pick up the true picture more readily as locals drop their guard in front of them. In the early weeks of Covid 19, the locals wouldn't have appreciated what they were dealing with. Low level officaldom in China will also have a talent problem as it won't be a meritocracy.

[saint]

Gt3 . I thats what you choose to believe , thats up to you .

[Whistler]

Not much substance in that post whistler, most if not all is pure speculation. When you have your data then post what is in your true numbers.
The Chinese will do ok, but, like saint I would like to see a fall at the first few hurdles.
The Chinese have filled as many universities as they can and in doing so turned education into a business. Which is crying out like any business now. Especially the lefty unis in Aussie. Also large investment in many poor countries for a dividend to be called on if they are in trouble. Additionally they own huge amount of land holdings and businesses overseas that the regular punter doesn’t know about. The majority of their overseas construction projects are manned by their own people flown in at cheaper than local cheap labour. Even the cheap Indian labour in the Middle East can’t compete. The arabs now go cheapest. So once travel restrictions are lifted it will be business as usual.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Speculation Barney?

It was so obvious that Blind Freddy, spotted it ahead of a dullard in Thailand.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/busi ... virus.html

[papafarang]

When you look at the time line of the virus it's easy to work out how the west got caught out , the virus wasn't identified untill Dec 31st, the Chinese had the first death on the 11th of January. By the time it had killed just 17 people in Wuhan the Chinese locked down 11,000,000 people. Obviously it wasn't untill that point the Chinese had no idea of what they were dealing with. The thing is , why when Wuhan was physically cut off and 11,000,000 trapped ... Why did it not set off alarm bells ? . They say the Chinese didn't tell us , I got told on the 11th of January by watching the news . The Chinese were supposed to tell us ,but even 4 months into the spread with millions infected our health officials keep telling us that they don't understand the virus . But apparently the Chinese must have fully known everything about it in the first few weeks. Sad how a world Pandemic is being used politically

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Sad how China lied in order to protect their image and silenced doctors who warned their government, and it is sad that the Chinese dictator warned his agents that China had a pandemic on its hands and they should gather up as much medical aids as possible so China could hoard these items. It is sad that the Chinese leadership did not tell warn the world about the Wuhan flu in November, and it is sad that the WHO decided to go along with Communist China's line to cover up China's lies.

[tamada]

When you look at the time line of the virus it's easy to work out how the west got caught out , the virus wasn't identified untill Dec 31st, the Chinese had the first death on the 11th of January. By the time it had killed just 17 people in Wuhan the Chinese locked down 11,000,000 people. Obviously it wasn't untill that point the Chinese had no idea of what they were dealing with. The thing is , why when Wuhan was physically cut off and 11,000,000 trapped ... Why did it not set off alarm bells ? . They say the Chinese didn't tell us , I got told on the 11th of January by watching the news . The Chinese were supposed to tell us ,but even 4 months into the spread with millions infected our health officials keep telling us that they don't understand the virus . But apparently the Chinese must have fully known everything about it in the first few weeks. Sad how a world Pandemic is being used politically

Very valid points. I still consider the WHO's low-level response and near-invisibility in Jan and Feb as a significant factor in allowing government's to basically ignore the inevitability. The subsequent blame game is just that, a deflection.

[the-monk]

<< When the first virus case was confirmed on 23 January - a man who had travelled from Wuhan to visit his son in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam's emergency plan was in action. >> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283.

Read the complete article above, and you will see that listening to science pays off. How come a poor counry like Vietnam, be aware so early of the virus ? The USA had members sitting at the Who committee in China at that time, plus all their spying, info-gathering gadgets, yet they failed to understand the situation, WHY ?? Simply because you take a horse to the water but not force it to drink. The West arrogance and stupidity prevented them to acknowlege the the real danger of the situation. Just like Brainless in Washington, they prefered to play politics, and please their brown-enveloppe donnors. The West superiority ... my a.....
Have a nice day.

[tamada]

Sad how China lied in order to protect their image and silenced doctors who warned their government, and it is sad that the Chinese dictator warned his agents that China had a pandemic on its hands and they should gather up as much medical aids as possible so China could hoard these items. It is sad that the Chinese leadership did not tell warn the world about the Wuhan flu in November, and it is sad that the WHO decided to go along with Communist China's line to cover up China's lies.

What's sad is despite the wonders of the internet showing pretty quickly how the Wuhan police were actively silencing the whistleblowers and even reporting one doctor's death within hours of it happening, the actual threat of a global pandemic was still not on any other nation's health and safety radar in any meaningful way. There was a whole lot of, "Look what they did to that doctor" instead of focusing on what the doctor was speaking about in the first place. You don't lock down 11 million people for nothing. You don't shut down the worlds largest manufacturing base for nothing. While everyone was crying about China's civil liberties and oppression, they totally missed the message. Now they're all in a froth saying SARS came from China and MERS came from China in a totally disingenuous "We told you this would happen again" moment.

No, you bloody well didn't!

The UK and other countries were running repatriation flights direct from Wuhan and quarantining arrivals whilst non-Brits traveling on indirect routes were getting cross-contaminated at various airports and airplanes in transit. AFAIK, they are still walking into the UK un-tested and un-quarantined after getting off the plane. The US initially designated five international airports as 'China gateways' while once again, loads of non-Chinese were pouring in at all the other airports.

I don't think the CCP bought the WHO's collusion on this, they simply benefited from someone else paying for it. I think the WHO's passivity was bought and paid for by vested interests of certain western governments in collusion with rich, multinational commodity trading companies and a certain small percentage of terribly rich and influential people with the power to manipulate the media and bury things. The sort of people that attended Davos before flying home to make sure their money was safe.

[noosard]

I see reported it is highly unlikely that the virus came from the loved pangolin

https://www.sciencealert.com/pangolins- ... -after-all

[mech_401]

when did covid19 become a " farang virus" is this
all from health ministers comments about dirty
foreigners? some country folk believe these tales

[jai yen yen]

when did covid19 become a " farang virus" is this
all from health ministers comments about dirty
foreigners? some country folk believe these tales

The one's in power in Thailand, I won't call them the government because they are not one do not care for white foreigners and are building their ties with China. The swing towards China and away from the U.S. started after the Thaksin era with the new powers. A very good example is this virus made in China, initially imported to Thailand and the world by China but blamed on white foreigners and now China is one of the first countries to be taken off the so called dangerous countries list regarding their virus. Another reason I am glad my wife and I returned to live in Canada.

[tamada]

^ ...with Justin.

[jai yen yen]

^ ...with Justin.

. Nothing is perfect. lol.

[tinpeeba]

Leading Korean Coronavirus Expert Reacts To COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories

[GT93]

when did covid19 become a " farang virus" is this
all from health ministers comments about dirty
foreigners? some country folk believe these tales

When the American and European governments ignored the loud warning signals coming from China and the virus ripped through their continents. The Wuhan lock down occurred on 23 January 2020. By then properly prepared countries such as Taiwan had already been tracking down travellers from Wuhan for 2 weeks. Sadly the very poor American and European responses have resulted in North American and European pandemics. The Thai government is quite correct to be wary of travellers from North America and Europe (and many other places). Governments need to be way better prepared for the next pandemic.