Post Covid ecomony

[mally]

by pipoz4444 » December 21, 2020, 9:54 am

So what comes next. One of these or an electronic version

Gove said No Certificate will be issued - but that seems a daft move - surely a vaccination certificate would be a good thing, especially for air travellers and immigration.

[tamada]

There's no point in making a Covid jab something that international travelers need to show evidence of when it is still a voluntary, emergency inoculation. Compared with Yellow Fever which is a mandatory jab for visitors to a lot of tropical countries, Covid is still uncontrolled with largely unknown routes of propagation and mutation. Also note that the Covid jab prevents you from catching it but doesn't stop you from spreading it. That's why the current vaccine rollout is from the oldest and/or most vulnerable first. The higher morbidity rate from Covid infections in the old or immunodeficient demographic is the current priority here.

[pipoz4444]

A bit more Doom and Gloom, or maybe reality about to kick in.

If, I had a business in Phuket, Koh Samui and or Pattaya (to a lesser extent), I would not be holding my breath, waiting for a return to the good old days of 2019 tourist numbers, any time soon.

In 2019, Phuket ranked was 14th with 9.89 million visitors and Pattaya 15th with 9.44 million visitors. These volumes of Tourists seem al long way away, in the distance, when you look forward today. I personally think 2 /12 years for a return to 2019 numbers, is very very optimistic.


Extract: INTERNATIONAL TOURISM EXPECTED TO DECLINE OVER 70% IN 2020, BACK TO LEVELS OF 30 YEARS AGO

• According to the latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveler confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic
• The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis.
• Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%.
• Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago.
• The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019.
• UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment ... al-tourism

pipoz4444

[Doodoo]

NEWS British Airways cancels routes for summer 2021 including the Seychelles, Sydney and Bangkok
Kara Godfrey
17 Dec 2020, 12:41Updated: 17 Dec 2020, 12:43
BRITISH Airways has scrapped 15 of their long-haul routes next year, including routes to Australia, Thailand and the Seychelles.

OOOOPPPS

[tamada]

If your post-Covid plans include a stroll down memory lane in Pattaya, you can cross the TQ off your list of venues to visit. They officially closed the doors and paid off the staff over the weekend. A sad end to 42 years of rock 'n' roll, fun, bell ringing, lady drinking, bar-fining, wet t-shirt contests, Champagne toilet, Christmas snow and incredible back door parties.

Tahitian Queen, the oldest continuously operating gogo bar on Beach Road in Pattaya. RIP

[Drunk Monkey]

Very sad news Tam .. TQ was one of my fav spots along with Las Vegas which morphed into Nevada, Far East Rock opposite also Hot n Cold and soi 2 The Classroom... finishing off at The Pump Station was always fun.

DM

[pipoz4444]

I think 2021 will be the Year of the "Domino", with the real impact on businesses in Pattaya (those that can manage to survive and those that close for good), becoming evident by May 2021.

I also think that it will be a much more subdued Pattaya, for some years to come, which may just be a good thing.

Covid 19.jpg (4.94 KiB) Viewed 3726 times

pipoz4444

[tamada]

I almost missed this but TAT has gotten into bed with Tinder the dating app as a way to boost the nascent single domestic tourist market. they reckon there's a whole boat load of 20 to 30 year-old Thais just gagging for a bit of extra... Thainess.

With few ageing sexpats chasing fewer over-the-hill bar girls, it's probably a sign of the times that younger Thai people are getting into dating apps. My 40-something, overweight and balding American mate, burned out on bar girls, go-go dancers and Thai Friendly time wasters was already using Tinder to get regularly laid on his previous two or three trips here. Apparently the "quality" of ladyboys on Tinder was quite remarkable, but maybe DM knows this already.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30399654

[tamada]

Looks like resident golfers currently enjoying easy tee times and empty fairways may have to put up with a wave of non-golfers hacking and whacking their way around Thailand's golf courses. I wonder how overseas embassies and consulates will assess if the "golf visa" applicant is legit and actually can play?

https://www.traveldailymedia.com/thaila ... ravel/amp/

[tamada]

A story on how some Brits living in Spain are having to make changes after Brexit. Some parallels with the squeeze on elderly foreigners with homes here in Thailand except for those choosing Spain, the changes have been greater and happened overnight. Interesting to see younger British emigres may have the money to stay in Spain under the new rules whereas the older and retired may have to give it all up.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-55617849

[AlexO]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... he-kingdom

The tourist industry is on its knees and the powers that be come up with this as a further reason to come to LOS. 36 Baht of this as 'insurance' for tourists who fall sick or are injured as opposed to the minimum of 100K USD insurance as required at present.
Way back we used to have to pay 500 baht exit fee but this was incorporated into the airline ticket prices who then were tax collectors for Thai Government. I am sure this is still the case, so really the tourist surcharge will be 800 Baht or 20GBP. Only in Thailand.

[pipoz4444]

They probably just realized that, it was pointless only testing the 200,000 Farang's (those already in Country), when the other 80,000,000 Inhabitants, just walked around every day, Untested.

The penny Dropped.jpg (4.01 KiB) Viewed 3453 times

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/120225 ... paign=news

pipoz4444

[glalt]

Unfortunately there are no experts. Their opinions vary as much as board member opinions. There are no easy workable answers. How long will it take for herd immunity? This virus thing will have to run its course hopefully with help from vaccines. How long will it take for the world economies to recover? It will be a slow process due to the many businesses going out of business never financially able to start over. Crime and suicides will continue to increase. That said, I am an optimist but optimism is becoming more difficult as this thing drags on. I am of the opinion that this too will pass, but when is the big question?

[Drunk Monkey]

The path to poverty ..interesting read from the BP

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... n-thailand

DM

[pipoz4444]

Personally, I think with will be like all other Viruses that have passed before it, notwithstanding they are different in their genetic make-up.

Most tend to hit us severely at the start and then when the identification and medicine/vaccine steps in to introduce partial control, their respective mortality rates decline, but the virus still lingers in the communities, breaking out from time to time, with different degrees of Fatalities, depending on where your happen to be. Very general I know
Over a period of time let’s say 20 – 50 years, viruses retreat in their impact and then flare up in hot spots or as random outbreaks, which the CDC’s and WHO’s then attempt to contain. Rarely does the virus completely retreat or disappear from our communities and just about never does it get eradicated (Some exceptions). The Virus simply get brought under some form of better control, maybe contained, with arguably acceptable levels of mortality, thereafter.

To me, it doesn’t really matter how many people catch the Covid-19 virus, what matters in the mortality Rate and to a large degree how healthy you are.

History has shown that these viruses have been around for a long time (100’s of years), i.e. Hepatitis, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Dengue and they are still out there, with Millions of people carrying them in this systems, with Million more becoming infected every year and with some viruses Millions dying each year. But these days those older viruses now seem to have had their Mortality rate reduced significantly,

• 0.45 per 100,000 for Hepatitis But 1,400,000 people still die every year
• 0.47 per 100,000 for HIV/AIDS But 1,000,000 people still die every year
• Malaria: 1.00% Ave Mortality Rate, but varies from very Low to upwards, depending on when detected and where, and still 400,000 people still die every year. Currently no licensed malaria vaccine on the market, and Malaria has been around for a long time.
• Meningitis : Mortality Rate of between 10-15% for the people who contract Meningitis. Of those who survive, 10% of the people will have lingering symptoms such as deafness, seizures or stroke. Even with the Meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine (MPSV4) and the Meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV4).
• Dengue: Varys from very Low and with proper care reported to be under 1% on average, with about 25,000 deaths every year, even with Dengvaxia

Then their are more rare ones like, Hantavirus & Marburg, that have also been around since the 1950's & 1960's
• Hantavirus: Mortality rate of 38%, fortunately not to many people contract it
• Marburg: The case-fatality rate for Marburg hemorrhagic fever is between 23-90%. There is no medicine that cures an Marburg virus infection. Fortunately it to is rare. Comes from an African Fruit Bat. Sound familiar .

EBOLA: Last is the Ebola Virus,(which causes severe viral hemorrhagic fever) which is much more deadly than Covid-19. Ebola has a fatality rate of up to 90% in humans, depending on when diagnosed. The Ebola virus was first identified in 1976 in the DR of Congo, some 40 years ago, although it had probably been around longer, just not detected, before that.

The first Ebola Vaccine was patented in 2003 (Developed by John Rose at YALE, in the 1990’s). It was administered on an emergency basis to quell the ongoing outbreak in in Guinea in 2015 and then in the DRC in 2018 during an outbreak in that country. So one might say it took 27 Years to arrive at the stage of the first Patient for the first Vaccine and 39 Years before the vaccine was first used, from what I have read.

Efficacy of Ebola: As to the efficacy rate of the Ebola vaccine, a study found the VSV-EBOV vaccine to be 95–100% effective against the Ebola virus, making it the first proven vaccine against the disease.

There are a lot more worse things out there in the World than Covid-19 and the fact that some of them have not found it easy to cross over from Animal to Humans and then later easy jump between from person to person, is a divine favor, up until now.


Us "Humans" have been playing with fire, and now we just have to learnt to live with the new Viruses, that we encourage, over time, buy developing effective testing protocol and early identification, along with improved medical treatments (for some) + drug support and partial vaccines. We will need to accept, if we haven't already, that when that next major new Virus comes along, most likely some 1.0 Million plus people will die from it, just as the 1.0 Million already die from Hepatitis and HIV/AIDS every year. Call it the price we pay for what we do and how we live. It is the Humans that tend to create the advanced forms of Viruses, in this case Covid-19, either by their Life Practices and or by in their Experiments and Research. We created the Wet Market environment and we built the Biosafety Level 4 Laboratories.

History has shown us that, these virus and I suspect the Covid-19, will be around for another 100 years plus and we too will learn to accept that 100’s of Millions of people on this planet will catch and or carry Covid-19 in their system and that this will result in over 1,000,000 Deaths per year, which we will accept as, The price to be Human at the top of the food chain and the price to live on this Planet the way we currently do.

People didn’t stop shagging when HIV was identified or stop chasing girls not knowing who they were with the night before, nor did we stop jungle walking and or visiting Asia, the South America’s and other tropical places, all known to have a high risk of Malaria and Dengue, nor did we stop traveling to Africa even though Ebola exists there, so why should we now cringe in our homes for the next 2, 3, or 4 years or until that magic cure all vaccine proves its effectiveness. Vaccine or no Vaccine, Covid-19 is with us for the next 100 years or a very long time.

My humble view, is that taking basic precautions, combined with some common sense with your person hygiene + avoiding places with Covid-19 outbreaks or ones known to be of a higher risk, wearing face masks for some but not all of the time, does obviously reduce the risk of catching Covid-19 and will allow us to learn to live with it and so get on with their own lives in some form of normality, whilst dodging the Covid-19 bullet as long as we can. I for one do not intend to live in a Cave on a Island for the rest of my years.

Remember when you do catch Covid-19, it is not a near certain death, like say Meningitis, Ebola, and several others, with mortality rates above 50% no matter what treatment you can get. and the odds can be in your favor these days, depending on your general health and age.

Just stay under 70 years of Age and you should be OK

AGE has a lot to do with it

Covid 19 Fatality Rate by Age

Covid 19 Case Fatality Rate vs Median Age of Population (4)

Which Country you Live in seems to have a part in the Fatality Rate

Covid 19 Fatality Rate (1)

Covid 19 Deaths vs Cases (2)

The Density of the Country Population may be relevant, if you can read between the Dots of the Chart below

Covid 19 Death Rate vs Population Density (3)

PS. I had nothing better to do today and I do realize that it is very long Post, but then WTF

pipoz4444

[pipoz4444]

"Vaccination Passports or Certificate"

To those who thought that a Vaccination Passport or Certificate wouldn't happen, think again there are a number of Countries and a few Organizations, still taking about it. You underestimated the World of Bureaucracy, "Europe"

SPAIN Plans to Establish ‘Vaccination Certificate’ to Recover Tourism Sector: Spain will soon be included on the list of European countries which are planning to soon introduce a ‘vaccination certificate’ that would facilitate the movement of travelers and help the tourism sector to recover from the damages caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. Spain’s Tourism Minister, Reyes Maroto has announced that the country’s government is working to introduce a ‘vaccination certificate’, which will have the same functions the ones that are set to be launched by Denmark, Greece, Iceland, and backed by the European Union Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.

Link: https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/s ... sm-sector/


DENMARK Plans to Introduce ‘Vaccine Passports’ for Travelers Soon: Link: COVID-19 vaccine passports may soon become a reality for All Europeans, including Danish citizens after Denmark’s Ministry of Health and the Elderly recently announced that it is working on a “vaccine passport” for Danish travelers, which will soon be available

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/d ... lers-soon/


RUSSIA: Russia considers COVID-19 vaccination certificates for cross-border travels; MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the government to consider issuing certificates to those who had been inoculated with domestic vaccines against COVID-19 for overseas travels, a document published by the Kremlin showed on Monday

LINK: https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/0 ... er-travels


World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/ ... ou-travel/


Global Tourism Crisis Committee: Not that I would ever believe what the Guardian Prints, but for once they may have the future is right ; https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2021 ... ganisation

Extract from Link: Vaccine passports must become essential travel documents in order to restart international tourism. The recommendation comes from the Global Tourism Crisis Committee, which met in Madrid this week to discuss measures to ensure the safe resumption of international travel. It called for international health and travel bodies to step up the coordination of a standardized digital certification system, as well as harmonized testing protocols.


pipoz4444

[tamada]

Meanwhile, in the real world of my work in the energy field which is exclusively in far east countries, after a mandatory pre-flight -ve PCR test, we have to serve whatever's the mandatory quarantine requirements of our host country on arrival, including a minimum of two more -ve PCR tests. Just as an example, that's 14 days for Korea and 21 days for China and Myanmar.

I will leave European countries to the futility of "Covid passports" for their largely non-essential, uncontrolled and untracked frequent flyers and holidaymakers so they can carry on superspreading.

[tamada]

Beware! The Scandihooligans are coming!!

https://scandasia.com/vaccine-sparks-no ... -thailand/

[noosard]

Just missing the bit about Thai quarantine due to the fact Thailand pop will not be all vaccinated by then

[tamada]

Just missing the bit about Thai quarantine due to the fact Thailand pop will not be all vaccinated by then

It does seem to assume that these Nordic snowbirds and mongers are of a mind that Thailand will allow in vaccinated visitors with their wee Covid passports. I think it's only hotel operators and others desperately clinging on to the dreams of the "old normal" that think this way. Just wait till Covid's "Bangkok strain" gets identified. It's out there but just hasn't mutated yet.