Myanmar coup

[tamada]

Aung San Suu Kyi and other Myanmar figures detained in military raids, says ruling party

Country’s powerful military have previously threatened to ‘take action’ over alleged fraud in a November election

"Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s president and other senior ruling party figures have been detained by the military in early morning raids, a party spokesman said on Monday.

Spokesman Myo Nyunt told Reuters that Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other leaders had been “taken” early in the morning. “I want to tell our people not to respond rashly and I want them to act according to the law,” he said, adding he also expected to be detained.

“We have to assume that the military is staging a coup,” a party spokesman said.

An NLD lawmaker, who asked not to be named for fear of retaliation, said another of those detained was Han Thar Myint, a member of the party’s central executive committee.

Phone lines to Naypyitaw, the capital, were not reachable in the early hours of Monday. The BBC reported that soldiers were on the street in Yangon and Naypyitaw. A military spokesman did not answer phone calls seeking comment. ..."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ling-party

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Lord Thunderin' Jaysus...just when it seemed things were improving slightly in Burma

[747man]

Lord Thunderin' Jaysus...just when it seemed things were improving slightly in Burma

Well I Guess NEITHER Of Us will be Vacationing there, Anytime Soon...'Eh LYM ??

[tamada]

This non-coup is in effect for a year according to announcement by the non-coup leaders.

[AlexO]

This non-coup is in effect for a year according to announcement by the non-coup leaders.

Is that how long it will take them to set up a fully democratic Government similar to their near neighbours??

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Lord Thunderin' Jaysus...just when it seemed things were improving slightly in Burma

Well I Guess NEITHER Of Us will be Vacationing there, Anytime Soon...'Eh LYM ??

Unfortunately, true. In fact, Canadians will not be going anywhere for the next little while. Any returnees/visitors to Canada will now have to stay in a hotel for three days at a cost of $2,000+ per person. The Government indicated this is to prevent the English variant from entering the country. The problem with that solution is the the variant is already here!

[Laan Yaa Mo]

It seems the Tatmadaw, just like Trump, thinks the election was a fraud and they actually won and were not humiliated. Their coup, however, seems to be successful.

[tamada]

Attentive locals watched this army chief Min Aung Hlaing moaning about the election from the get go. He even belly ached about it in early January to the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister.

Apparently, by staging this coup, he is "protecting his assets" so I imagine that either a chunk of his ill-gotten millions or his continued gravy train was imperiled by the NLD's strengthened showing at the last election. Unfortunately, beyond the pandemic and the Rohingya sideshow, the NLD have managed to improve the lot of most of the people. Only the ageing generals and monks tend to disagree.

[Drunk Monkey]

worrying if there are any displaced Myanmar citizens and those avoiding detention and fleeing the new leaders as jumping over the border in Thailand may be an option .. not ideal with the current covid situation.

DM

[tamada]

Lord Thunderin' Jaysus...just when it seemed things were improving slightly in Burma

Well I Guess NEITHER Of Us will be Vacationing there, Anytime Soon...'Eh LYM ??

Unfortunately, true. In fact, Canadians will not be going anywhere for the next little while. Any returnees/visitors to Canada will now have to stay in a hotel for three days at a cost of $2,000+ per person. The Government indicated this is to prevent the English variant from entering the country. The problem with that solution is the the variant is already here!

A bit off topic but the Canadian Health Minister or their advisers have specifically stated this is "to prevent the English variant from entering the country."? I agree with you that it's present already (or the Montreal strain, or the Calgary strain, etc., etc..)

The variant is a mutation. It can happen to any "indigenous" strain already present in any country. It's a natural mutation, not something that comes from England or anywhere. You don't "import" anything. The South African variant has been identified in 5 or 6 locations in the U.K. in people with absolutely NO travel history or links to anyone who had.

Anyway, this is something for the general Covid thread rather than derail this one so happy to follow up on this on THAT thread.

[tamada]

worrying if there are any displaced Myanmar citizens and those avoiding detention and fleeing the new leaders as jumping over the border in Thailand may be an option .. not ideal with the current covid situation.

DM

We've been told that Thai border security has been bolstered since the December and January infractions. Time will tell but we can follow up in the Covid thread.

[pal52]

Apparently in the last election the government of Aung San Suu Kyi won 83% of votes which would then allow them to change the so called Constitution made by the Military in 2008.
That Constitution of 2008 gave the Military 25% of seats in the Parliament so the 75% of votes by a Party to change it could never really be achieved.

Sort of reminds me of another similar situation elsewhere.

Full story at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-far-away

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Apparently in the last election the government of Aung San Suu Kyi won 83% of votes which would then allow them to change the so called Constitution made by the Military in 2008.
That Constitution of 2008 gave the Military 25% of seats in the Parliament so the 75% of votes by a Party to change it could never really be achieved.

Sort of reminds me of another similar situation elsewhere.

Full story at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-far-away

Exactly

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Attentive locals watched this army chief Min Aung Hlaing moaning about the election from the get go. He even belly ached about it in early January to the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister.

Apparently, by staging this coup, he is "protecting his assets" so I imagine that either a chunk of his ill-gotten millions or his continued gravy train was imperiled by the NLD's strengthened showing at the last election. Unfortunately, beyond the pandemic and the Rohingya sideshow, the NLD have managed to improve the lot of most of the people. Only the ageing generals and monks tend to disagree.

The majority of monks do not support the Tatmadaw although a certain nationalist sect do. Unlike Thailand with its 2 sects, Burma has at least six sects. And, they are political. This goes back to colonial times when the monks led the opposition to the British in the 1910s with groups like the YMBA (Young Man's Buddhist Association)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Men ... on_(Burma)
.

[jackspratt]

Apparently in the last election the government of Aung San Suu Kyi won 83% of votes which would then allow them to change the so called Constitution made by the Military in 2008.
That Constitution of 2008 gave the Military 25% of seats in the Parliament so the 75% of votes by a Party to change it could never really be achieved.

Sort of reminds me of another similar situation elsewhere.

Full story at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-far-away

Exactly

I don't read it that way.

Under the current constitution, the army is guaranteed 25% of the seats in parliament. That means the government can't reach the 75% needed to amend the constitution, unless it wins every remaining seat.

In the current case, Aung San Suu Kyi only won ~80% of the available (ie non-miltary) seats, putting her well short of the overall 75% her party needs.

The Guardian article seems to imply the coup was more about protecting the Army leaders fat arse, as he was due to compulsorily retire in July.

[tamada]

^ Per my earlier comment (paraphrased from a Myanmar guy I worked with) that the army chief simply moved to "protect his assets".

Since they are guaranteed their 25%, it means any opposition can never get more than the 75% needed to kick them out. As suggested, with retirement looming large in the rear-view mirror, he's simply, "Pulling a Prayuth" and his guaranteed election this time next year.

[tamada]

After reading some comments from persons in Myanmar saying that the Chinese were either quietly acquiescent or complicit in this coup, I did some browsing and saw the first statement by the Chinese Foreign office's spokesman saying they were simply watching how things play out. This is aligned with what Thailand and other ASEAN member states' have commented. Apparently ASEAN's constitution forbids comment on another member nation's politics, however dire.

More recently, I heard a non-BBC commentator state on the BBC that the Chinese have apparently gone a bit further and are now calling the Myanmar coup a "cabinet shuffle". So far I haven't been able to corroborate if that is factual or more (inevitable) China bashing.

[FrazeeDK]

how things will play out depend on the Western nations showing some spine and immediately reimposing the sanctions that existed before the military granted political power to the NLD.. But, money talks and the huge amount of western investment dollars that flowed into Myanmar after sanctions were lifted before likely will prevent any heavy response by the "democratic" countries..

As for China they could give two hoots about who runs the country if their 25 year One Belt One Road goals are met. They've got dams, rail, road, pipeline and power infrastructure projects in Myanmar..

[tamada]

how things will play out depend on the Western nations showing some spine and immediately reimposing the sanctions that existed before the military granted political power to the NLD.. But, money talks and the huge amount of western investment dollars that flowed into Myanmar after sanctions were lifted before likely will prevent any heavy response by the "democratic" countries..

As for China they could give two hoots about who runs the country if their 25 year One Belt One Road goals are met. They've got dams, rail, road, pipeline and power infrastructure projects in Myanmar..

Sanctions like the ones that have torn down socialist cesspits like Cuba and North Korea and consigned their despotic leaders to the annals of ignominy? IMHO, sanctions only make privileged western politicians feel good and mostly hurt the people they purport to help.

A few days back, I read an article dated in 2018 by a Myanmar economist who spoke loudly about the risk of embracing China's OBOR initiative only leading to joining corruptly-governed and bankrupt African countries that are forever indebted to Beijing. This 'debt trap' has been high on the nation's agenda for at least three years lots of pro and con reading out there... mostly con.

Late last year, the Myanmar government apparently bucked the trend and moved towards allowing an independent foreign company to review the tendering procedures for these gifts from China. That must have irked some in the army who were already in Beijing's back pocket.

"... The so-called Swiss challenge will give the Southeast Asian nation the opportunity to demonstrate transparency in its public procurement, an important signal to investors given the sanctions it has faced over the military crackdown of Rohingya in 2017. ..."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... ad-project

Here's a more recent take on the coup from the local press.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... standstill

[tamada]

...

More recently, I heard a non-BBC commentator state on the BBC that the Chinese have apparently gone a bit further and are now calling the Myanmar coup a "cabinet shuffle". So far I haven't been able to corroborate if that is factual or more (inevitable) China bashing.

I guess they did after all.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... tate-media