Miscellaneous COVID-19/Corona Virus Discussion, Questions, etc.

[tamada]

Bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted springs to mind ... the horse in this case being Covid...
Lets not forget some of the SK traveling back to bkk may unknowingly be carrying the virus and will stop in busy service stations etc en route it doesnt just end when they leave their home town province.

Can only see the numbers going up for the next few days maybe weeks.

DM

So much crying over spilt milk. When they announced on the Thursday immediately preceding the Songkran migration that the triple infectious Kent mutation had been confirmed in a local infection, it was already too late to do anything. It's already among us so there's no value in stopping people going back to work, none at all. The lockdowns can and will start in 7-10 days time.

Meanwhile...

[sometimewoodworker]

Bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted springs to mind ... the horse in this case being Covid...

Well Thailand hasn’t done a bad job up to now, has it?

Even if the the infections and deaths that have been under reported they are still orders of magnitude better than the U.K. or USA

Under 100 deaths in Thailand 127,000 in the U.K.

4,373,343 Cases in the U.K. 33,610 in Thailand

Population Thailand 70 million, U.K. 68 million.

Yes Thailand needs to take action, yes there is likely to be a significant spike in cases however going on past performance it’s going to be dealt with more effective than in the U.K.

[Drunk Monkey]

Bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted springs to mind ... the horse in this case being Covid...

Well Thailand hasn’t done a bad job up to now, has it?

Even if the the infections and deaths that have been under reported they are still orders of magnitude better than the U.K. or USA

Under 100 deaths in Thailand 127,000 in the U.K.

4,373,343 Cases in the U.K. 33,610 in Thailand

Population Thailand 70 million, U.K. 68 million.

Yes Thailand needs to take action, yes there is likely to be a significant spike in cases however going on past performance it’s going to be dealt with more effective than in the U.K.

STWW ... WITH REGARD TO HANDLING OF COVID .. I was refering to only the recent third outbreak and the decision to allow SK travel when IMO there should of been a total travel ban ... covid was less prevalent SK 2020 yet it was cancelled totally yet 2021 allowed despite being way worse due to the entertainment venue clusters in Bkk.. this is only my op inion on the recent events for the most part prior to that the government had done a great job keeping covid at bay.

one other point .. 2 managers at Krystal and Emerald club jailed ... surely the managers of the shrimp factories and even further back the Lumpini boxing stadium cluster should have been .. ????.. at all times these clusters occured the regulations were the same .

Some might suggest this is all about a grip on power ..movement restrictions , no gatherings rallies .. control n surpress the population without a bullet being fired... but in reality no one could have predicted covid its new ground for leaders around the world to deal with so the jury is still out on that view.

DM

DM

[tamada]

The popularity of the current Thai administration would have been holed below the water line if they had canceled this year's Songkran at the 11th hour. Like most countries, they were blindsided when the super-infectious variant was identified literally hours before the holiday exodus kicked off.

Either way, I think they have gambled SIGNIFICANTLY by placing their popularity above the nation's public health. How they deal with it this summer will be critical. The announcements of vaccination booking commencing 1st May and the permission to use locally-manufactured AZ vaccine while refusing to be drawn into debate about the low-efficacy of the Chinese and Russian products is pre-emptive damage control.

They may think they have dodged the torpedos but I reckon the depth charges will get 'em.

Today's nautical warfare allusions brought to you by " The Victor" and "The Hotspur"

[noosard]

administration popularity used in the same sentence is an oxymoron

[tamada]

administration popularity used in the same sentence is an oxymoron

yeah noos, we all know that but critically, the administration don't do big words.

[Doodoo]

"Denmark drops AstraZeneca vaccine for good, in European first"
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2099759

[tamada]

+1543 today

a 'buannachadh

[sometimewoodworker]

"Denmark drops AstraZeneca vaccine for good, in European first"
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2099759

There are reports of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine causing extremely similar problems in a similar very rare number of cases. The risks are in women in the 18 to 48 age range and are a combination of low platelet counts and CVST

The numbers under are per 100,000
The risk is 0.9 people against a 0.5 people background risk in the same population
With Covid19 the risk is between 4.5 people and 20 people
With pregnancy it is 10 to 12
With oral contraceptives it’s between 2.7 and 40

A few patients who have got CVST have died most have not. In the USA 1 death in 6 cases with one still in serious condition.
Is there a risk? Yes.
Is it higher than the normal background risk? Yes it’s a little less than double.
There are several other causes that have a very very much higher risk than vaccination with either AZ of J&J
Is there a risk with Phiser or Moderna? Maybe.

At the moment I would take any vaccine and suggest that SWMBO do not have either AZ of J&J if there is a choice.

[pipoz4444]

"Denmark drops AstraZeneca vaccine for good, in European first"
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2099759

There are reports of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine causing extremely similar problems in a similar very rare number of cases. The risks are in women in the 18 to 48 age range and are a combination of low platelet counts and CVST

The numbers under are per 100,000
The risk is 0.9 people against a 0.5 people background risk in the same population
With Covid19 the risk is between 4.5 people and 20 people
With pregnancy it is 10 to 12
With oral contraceptives it’s between 2.7 and 40

A few patients who have got CVST have died most have not. In the USA 1 death in 6 cases with one still in serious condition.
Is there a risk? Yes.
Is it higher than the normal background risk? Yes it’s a little less than double.
There are several other causes that have a very very much higher risk than vaccination with either AZ of J&J
Is there a risk with Phiser or Moderna? Maybe.

At the moment I would take any vaccine and suggest that SWMBO do not have either AZ of J&J if there is a choice.

Agree STWW

Common sense does not seem to prevail, these days, when you have to choose between the "Lesser of the two Evils, when faced with selecting from the probability of death from Covid-19 or the probability of death from the side effect of a Vaccine (in this case AZ or J&J). It would appear that common sense no no longer exist in some Countries Political realm, if in fact it ever did.

I would however ask the Denmarkian Politicians and their Health Officials if any of them have already been vaccinated and if so which vaccine did they take?? , before they decided to suspend the AstraZeneca roll out to all other Denmarkian Minions, Same go for the Other Countries who choose to suspend AZ

By suspending the AstraZeneca roll out are they not delaying their people access to a Vaccine and therefore exposing their people to a longer period of Risk of catching the full effects of Covid-19, with then a higher probability of dying anyway.

The Chart above is a bit old from Oct 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothec ... 5fc3906159

pipoz4444

[Zidane]

[tamada]

+1582

[Giggle]

More tests, more positive cases. Little meaning unless you're simply trying to elicit fear or enforce certain behavior.

With respect to the COVID-19 pandemic, we continue to hear that increased testing leads to more positive cases. And this isn’t wrong. If testing is expanded to include a larger proportion of the population, the tested population will naturally include more asymptomatic carriers of a disease, or in this case COVID-19. So the total number of positive tests will almost certainly increase.

-- Sasha Guttentag, PhD, is a research scientist. She received her doctoral degree in public health (epidemiology) from the NYU School of Global Public Health.

What threshold are they using for "positive?" Lower it enough, and you can rope nearly everyone into the plandemic.

Run for your lives!

https://www.goodrx.com/blog/how-does-ra ... vity-rate/

[mak]

Higher Education Ministry Turns 37 Campuses into Field Hospitals
The sites are scattered across the country in major provinces, including Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Chiang Mai, Phitsanulok, Lampang, Nakhon Nayok, Amnat Charoen, Surin, Udon Thani, Chachoengsao, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala.

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/deta ... 5155119192

[mak]

All national banks will be closing earlier at 3:30 P.M. and at 5:00 P.M. for banks in department stores across the country, effective tomorrow, April 16th, Thailand’s State Financial Institutions Association announced today.

[Drunk Monkey]

All national banks will be closing earlier at 3:30 P.M. and at 5:00 P.M. for banks in department stores across the country, effective tomorrow, April 16th, Thailand’s State Financial Institutions Association announced today.

Thats great news and bound to curb the covid wave .. ... first of a long line of institutions and civil service offices gagging to "" work from home "" on full salary .. whilst the peasants are instructed to wear a mask wash hands n carry on i would expect the land office , fisheries , water n leccy to follow suit not to loose out on some RNR ..

[Redacted by Moderators]

DM

[Giggle]

first of a long line of institutions and civil service offices gagging to "" work from home "" on full salary

Sounds like schoolteachers in California.

They don't want to go back to school to teach children from their own communities, but are gagging for a chance to go to the border and teach unvaccinated, untested, little illegal immigrants face-to-face to signal their virtue.

[sometimewoodworker]

Thrombocytopenia CVST is a known risk, modelled in mice a couple of years ago, for an adenoviral vector injected intravenously

The risk for Moderna and phizer are at 4.1 per million vs 5 per million for AZ of J&J

For thrombosis leading to the liver he risk for Moderna and phizer are at 44 per million vs 1.6 per million for AZ of J&J

There is no data available on the cause of the clotting beyond the fact that aspiration of injections has been deprecated, this could be one of the causal factors

This information changes my advice to SWMBO that any vaccine is OK if injected correctly but AZ of J&J are potentially a little safer.

The takeaway for anyone getting vaccinated is ensure that the person performing the injection aspirates the syringe after inserting but before injection. If there is blood it shows that the needle is in a blood vessel this is potentially bad, if there is no blood it’s in the mussel where it should be.

The takeaway for the decision to vaccinate is that covid19 risks for these are much greater along with many other problems it brings.

[tamada]

COVID passenger warning for FOURTEEN Phuket flights

PHUKET: Passengers on 14 flights between Phuket and Bangkok between Apr 4-10 have been urged to present themselves to a government hospital for a COVID test and observe any quarantine order by officials.

https://www.thephuketnews.com/covid-pas ... -79703.php

Using a worst-case scenario where everyone is infected and ignores social distancing, testing or self-isolation, based on the stated rates of community transmission from the 'basic' Covid-19 of last year, these 329 'suspect' passengers could infect over 820 other people in the first 5 days. Subsequently, those infected could spread to almost 133,600 after 30 days. Since we now have the 'Kent' variant that is reportedly 3.5 as infectious as the original strain positively identified as being present in Thailand, well you do the math.

I think it is prescient to suggest that all our members forego ANY plans for domestic air travel until the current situation gets sorted out.

[AlexO]

COVID passenger warning for FOURTEEN Phuket flights

PHUKET: Passengers on 14 flights between Phuket and Bangkok between Apr 4-10 have been urged to present themselves to a government hospital for a COVID test and observe any quarantine order by officials.

https://www.thephuketnews.com/covid-pas ... -79703.php

Using a worst-case scenario where everyone is infected and ignores social distancing, testing or self-isolation, based on the stated rates of community transmission from the 'basic' Covid-19 of last year, these 329 'suspect' passengers could infect over 820 other people in the first 5 days. Subsequently, those infected could spread to almost 133,600 after 30 days. Since we now have the 'Kent' variant that is reportedly 3.5 as infectious as the original strain positively identified as being present in Thailand, well you do the math.

I think it is prescient to suggest that all our members forego ANY plans for domestic air travel until the current situation gets sorted out.

Tam
Do wish you would stop calling it the "Kent variant". Too many halfwits will start to believe that this new variant of the virus originated in Kent and the Brits are to blame for it rather than it was identified by a lab in Kent as a new mutation if the Chinese Virus. Too many haters just waiting to blame the UK for a new deadly strain.