Post Covid ecomony

[stattointhailand]

I wonder if Blackpool will ever return to pre covid times ?

[noosard]

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said on Wednesday the country will be fully reopened within 120 days, with all businesses able to resume normal operations and visitors free to travel across the country.

[Drunk Monkey]

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said on Wednesday the country will be fully reopened within 120 days, with all businesses able to resume normal operations and visitors free to travel across the country.

He also tipped Scotland to win the Euros..

[Niggly]

The money men who really pull all the strings probably have a need to do a bit of travelling.
Maybe a holiday is in order after all this running about in the smoke & mirrors

[Niggly]

More plucking numbers out of thin air.
Friday it was 125000 visitors generating 11.4b baht, about 88000 each which I don’t think too bad if the 125000 actually arrive

Two days later, Sunday, it’s 600000 visitors generating 15b baht. Just where the additional half a million visitors have appeared from I don’t know but it makes the cash flow only 25000 baht a person which is a pretty poor expectation.
I wonder what tomorrow’s prediction will be

[Doodoo]

The 125,000 are FOREIGN Visitors
The 600,000 are FOREIGN AND LOCAL TOURISTS as sen, reported in your atached article

[Niggly]

^ and?

[Doodoo]

You are comparing apples and oranges
one is Foreigners the other is Foreigners plus Locals

[Niggly]

If you could actually read you’d see I was performing a simple mathematical calculation for expected revenue generated per head. It doesn’t matter where the visitors come from.

Do you want to carry on arguing the toss?

[pipoz4444]

As we slowly come out of Covid 19 many countries are carrying a lot of Debt. Measure or comparison of a Countries Debt to GDP Ratio. Japan at No 1 is 257% and Belize at No 10 is 135%

RANKING TOP 10 IN GOVERNMENT DEBT: Government debt can be analyzed through the debt-to-GDP metric because it contextualizes an otherwise massive number. For example the U.S. national debt, which currently sits at over $27 trillion. In isolation this figure sounds daunting, but when expressed as a % of U.S. GDP, it works out to a more relatable 133%. This format also allows us to make a better comparison between countries, especially when their economies differ in size. This is not the worst by any measure.

The top 10 countries in terms of DEBT to GDP are,

JAPAN tops the list with a ratio of 257%, (in 2021) though this isn’t really a surprise—the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio first surpassed 100% in the 1990s, and in 2010, it became the first advanced economy to reach 200%.

Significant debt burdens are the result of non-traditional monetary policies, many of which were first implemented by Japan, then adopted by others. In the late 1990s, for instance, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) set interest rates at 0% to counter deflation and promote economic growth. This low cost of borrowing enables businesses and governments to accumulate debt much more freely, and has seen widespread use among other developed nations post-2008.


COUNTRIES OF INTEREST - COMPARISONS OF DEBT TO GDP
USA: 115.00% in 2021
Thailand: 55.93% in 2020
China: 69.61% in 2021
Vietnam: 43.37% in 2017
Canada: 117.84% in 2020
UK: 98.50% in 2021
Australia: 40.40% in 2021
New Zealand: 46.36% in 2020

Then comes the question of who actually holds the most DEBT (by Value as Percentage of GDP) in the World (as a percentage), with the three main offenders being, USA, Japan and China, which also just happen to be the three countries with the largest GDP's, no surprise.

COUNTRIES WITH LARGETS GDP's

Capture 7 Countries with Largest GDP.PNG (5.78 KiB) Viewed 2370 times

I have always wondered who owns or holds, most of this Debt. Is it just the case of the Federal Banks of each country holding IOU's and printing money when needed, or is a large chunk of it held by some Private entity, (Mr. Rockefeller & Co.) who never calls in the Debt and just keeps collecting those monthly interest payments on some of this Debt.

At what stage does this lead to an increase in Taxes on the Working Individuals in some Counties, to start paying off some of that Debt. Countries simply cannot rely on Growth of GDP for ever.

pipoz4444

[Niggly]

I’ve no way of disputing it but 75 flights a day already at Phuket Airport sounds a lot to me.
Also, if the prediction is to increase by 5 flights a day when the sandbox opens, that’s going to be nearly 90 days of completely full planes of international travellers to get to the 129000 tourists.

Like I said, no way of disputing it but the last time I saw this sort of optimism, my 3yo asked me to turn off the ceiling fan because she was about to jump really high……

Phuket tipped to receive 6% more visitors
Bangkok Post
24/06/2021

Phuket International Airport is ready to welcome international tourists under the island's "sandbox" scheme due to start next month and cope with a 6% increase in air traffic, Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Ltd said on Wednesday.
Despite the likelihood that air traffic at the airport will drop by 45% during this fiscal year to only around 339,340 flights due to Covid-19, traffic is expected to rebound a little once the Phuket sandbox scheme kicks off on July 1, the state agency's executive vice-president, Tinnakorn Chuwong said.
At least five more flights will arrive at Phuket airport each day, bringing the total daily number to 80 flights per day, or a 6% increase on current daily air traffic, he said. "The heavier air traffic is not beyond our capacity, since during a normal period, Phuket airport has up to 350 flights per day," he said.
Phuket governor Narong Woonsew says officials are also ready to implement the sandbox plan, which also heralds the country's reopening to tourism, once international tourists arrive.
Mr Narong said visitors would come from low- and medium-risk countries in Europe and elsewhere and would arrive on Thai Airways International flights from London, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Paris and Zurich.
Before travelling, visitors must have a negative Covid-19 test, purchase Covid-19 insurance coverage of at least US$100,000 (3.1 million baht) and have a reservation at a hotel with a Safety and Health Administration (SHA) Plus certificate, he said.
On arrival, visitors will be tested again for Covid-19 at Phuket airport. They would have to wait in their hotel room for the result. If the test is negative, they will be allowed to go out.
However, they still have to pass two more tests on day 6 or 7 and day 12 or 13 of their trip. If they pass all three tests, they can continue travelling in Thailand. They would also be required to install the smartphone tracking app "Mor Chana".
These rules are also extended to Thais returning from abroad, while Thais from other provinces must be vaccinated and test negative for Covid-19 before entering Phuket, he said.

[pipoz4444]

Possibly an indication or some recognition, that the tourism Industry contribution to the Thai Economy, will not be significant in the near future and not recovering anytime soon. Or simply some acknowledgement, that this coming final quarter of Q 2021 will not be as good as some were predicting.

Or just a glitch

pipoz4444

[Drunk Monkey]

Been chatting to existing customers around Isan and bizz colleagues in Bkk and there seems to be a little optimism still in the air ..not all doom n gloom .. as many especially in places like Sisaket , Ubon , MSK (Thai non tourist expat hang outs) etc are saying once the covid is past it could well start a decent spell in the Restaurant , Pub n Bar sector for those who have stuck it out and not closed up permanently .. several have commented that their competitors have closed meaning less venues to go .. in turn with many smaller importers have ceased trading it may bode well for those who have toughed it out with products for retailers to fill the fridges ..

We are looking to expand the beverage range on offer with orders for new big name products already placed..all our draft taps are moth balled ready for the post covid feel good factor to kick in.

Yes its tough but .. its not over till the fat lady sings and we are looking at things positively post covid rather than whinging and folding up.

DM

[AlexO]

I’ve no way of disputing it but 75 flights a day already at Phuket Airport sounds a lot to me.
Also, if the prediction is to increase by 5 flights a day when the sandbox opens, that’s going to be nearly 90 days of completely full planes of international travellers to get to the 129000 tourists.

Like I said, no way of disputing it but the last time I saw this sort of optimism, my 3yo asked me to turn off the ceiling fan because she was about to jump really high……

Phuket tipped to receive 6% more visitors
Bangkok Post
24/06/2021

Phuket International Airport is ready to welcome international tourists under the island's "sandbox" scheme due to start next month and cope with a 6% increase in air traffic, Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Ltd said on Wednesday.
Despite the likelihood that air traffic at the airport will drop by 45% during this fiscal year to only around 339,340 flights due to Covid-19, traffic is expected to rebound a little once the Phuket sandbox scheme kicks off on July 1, the state agency's executive vice-president, Tinnakorn Chuwong said.
At least five more flights will arrive at Phuket airport each day, bringing the total daily number to 80 flights per day, or a 6% increase on current daily air traffic, he said. "The heavier air traffic is not beyond our capacity, since during a normal period, Phuket airport has up to 350 flights per day," he said.
Phuket governor Narong Woonsew says officials are also ready to implement the sandbox plan, which also heralds the country's reopening to tourism, once international tourists arrive.
Mr Narong said visitors would come from low- and medium-risk countries in Europe and elsewhere and would arrive on Thai Airways International flights from London, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Paris and Zurich.
Before travelling, visitors must have a negative Covid-19 test, purchase Covid-19 insurance coverage of at least US$100,000 (3.1 million baht) and have a reservation at a hotel with a Safety and Health Administration (SHA) Plus certificate, he said.
On arrival, visitors will be tested again for Covid-19 at Phuket airport. They would have to wait in their hotel room for the result. If the test is negative, they will be allowed to go out.
However, they still have to pass two more tests on day 6 or 7 and day 12 or 13 of their trip. If they pass all three tests, they can continue travelling in Thailand. They would also be required to install the smartphone tracking app "Mor Chana".
These rules are also extended to Thais returning from abroad, while Thais from other provinces must be vaccinated and test negative for Covid-19 before entering Phuket, he said.

Someone is telling big porkies.
https://www.phuketairportonline.com/fli ... epartures/
This web site shows 7 flights in and 7 out in total.
6 from Bangkok and 1 from Singapore.
Unless there is a huge amount of cargo flights which I truly doubt its like believing anything that TAT come up with.

[pipoz4444]

Been chatting to existing customers around Isan and bizz colleagues in Bkk and there seems to be a little optimism still in the air ..not all doom n gloom .. as many especially in places like Sisaket , Ubon , MSK (Thai non tourist expat hang outs) etc are saying once the covid is past it could well start a decent spell in the Restaurant , Pub n Bar sector for those who have stuck it out and not closed up permanently .. several have commented that their competitors have closed meaning less venues to go .. in turn with many smaller importers have ceased trading it may bode well for those who have toughed it out with products for retailers to fill the fridges ..

We are looking to expand the beverage range on offer with orders for new big name products already placed..all our draft taps are moth balled ready for the post covid feel good factor to kick in.

Yes its tough but .. its not over till the fat lady sings and we are looking at things positively post covid rather than whinging and folding up.

DM

DM

I too get the feeling that some of the more non-touristy places are more insulated from the financial effects of Covid-19 and direct effect from the loss in the Tourist dollar, Udon Thani being one of them, but there must be some effect from those lost Billions of Baht, that used to flow into the likes of Pattaya and Phuket and trickle back up Country.

Thailand's Tourism revenue in December 2019 was reported to be 62 USD Billion, up from 58 USD Billion in 2018 and potentially growing every year, from the Graph below. So, to go from Billions of USD revenue, to almost Zero in the second half of 2020 and stay near Zero for nearly 2 years (Most of 2020 and all of 2021) must hurt a lot of business and lot of individuals, somewhere in Thailand.

Have a couple of ex-colleagues, who run restaurants and bars, in Phuket and Kata Beach, both of who invested significantly, in early-mid 2019. So neither actually had a bumper first year, but I don't think they expected one. Both however, can afford to crank up, when the time comes, as they afford it, from their days in the ME. It's not always the case with the Thai business persons, whom may now have lost their life savings, therefore making it difficult if not impossible in some cases, to restart.

Nevertheless, there is an end in sight and we will see how how quickly the industry pick up, once it re-starts

pipoz4444

[Niggly]

Someone is telling big porkies.
https://www.phuketairportonline.com/fli ... epartures/
This web site shows 7 flights in and 7 out in total.
6 from Bangkok and 1 from Singapore.
Unless there is a huge amount of cargo flights which I truly doubt its like believing anything that TAT come up with.

Far for me to say they just pick random numbers every day but they just pick random numbers every day

[Niggly]

Another day, another set of random numbers for the Phuket Sandbox opening.
I’ll leave the simple arithmetic to someone else this time if interested but will say the revenue expected from the Thai sector is a pretty low expectation. It’d hardly be worth the trip if they’re going to spend so little

Phuket sets first-day goal of 1,500 int'l arrivals
Bangkok Post
25/06/2021, 14:35

Some 1,500 international tourists are expected to arrive in Phuket on the first day of the Phuket Sandbox tourism scheme on July 1, as the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is pursuing a goal to welcome 100,000 visitors eventually and earn tourism revenue of 8.9 billion baht.
TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn said on Thursday the TAT is overseeing the marketing for the scheme, as the agency is trying to revive Phuket's tourism industry by attracting 100,000 international tourists to the province by the end of the third quarter.
The scheme will allow foreign tourists who have been fully vaccinated to enter Phuket without 14-day quarantine.
No details were available on how many bookings were confirmed. However, the news came as some traders on the island have expressed unease about a rapid reopening.
Mr Yuthasak said around 1,500 international tourists are expected in Phuket every day from July 1 until the end of the third quarter, generating income of 8.9 billion baht.
"The TAT is targeting Thai tourists as well, and it is expected they can generate up to 5.5 billion baht," he said.
Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob said Thailand is ready to welcome foreign tourists and there is no need to worry about Covid-19.
Phuket International Airport has been working with the Ministry of Public Health to set up Covid-19 screening centres for swab tests.
Results will be issued in two to three hours.
If Covid is detected, the patient will be taken for treatment.
As a precautionary measure, checkpoints are also being set up to screen people travelling to and from the island.
For water transport, the Marine Department has worked with the Interior Ministry to arrange officials to take care of tourists, while land transport has also been improved for safety.
"If the Phuket Sandbox scheme is successful, it can expand to others provinces, such as Krabi, Phangnga, Chiang Mai, Pattaya and Buri Ram.
"The outcome can bolster confidence among people, leading to a healthier economy and more robust tourism," he said.
Fourth Army Region commander Lt Gen Kriangkrai Srirak and 3rd Naval Area commander VAdm Cherngchai Chomcherngpat told a meeting associated with the Phuket Sandbox that the defence forces were ready to support the government in taking care of tourists in compliance with Covid-19 control measures.

[pipoz4444]

How stupid are some Farang's. They will be the first to whinge when they have to pay and fine or possibly worst still, when they are told that their Visa's will not be extended. unless of course they..........

Extract: Siam Chon News reported this morning that at 12.30 am today the Chonburi provincial police and local officers raided two establishments in south Pattaya arresting Thais and Foreigners and also arrested 20 people drinking alcohol on the beach. In one raid people tried to climb out of the third floor of a building to flee. Some got away.

The media said the big gatherings represented a fear of a cluster of Covid-19 infections developing from people not obeying the rules on alcohol and gathering.

The first raid was at The Garden 168 on South Pattaya Road where 28 people and a Manager were arrested after being found drinking alcohol. It was a bar with a restaurant covering the illegal activity.

Raid #2 was bigger. This was at the four story Mo Salah on Walking Street where there are lots of separate rooms. Alcohol was being consumed at ten tables on the third floor. Patrons - both Thais and Foreigners - tried to flee to various rooms and some even climbed down the building.

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/122176 ... paign=news

pipoz4444

[stattointhailand]

If every country in the world is feeling the effects of the pandemic, and owes money (some more than others), I have two questions ...........

WHO THE F*** DO THEY OWE IT TOO?

HOW THE 'ELL WAS SOMEONE/SOMETHING ALLOWED TO MAKE A PROFIT DURING THIS TIME?

[Niggly]

Looking good
Talk of fines to squeeze every last baht out before the first visitor has even landed.

217 confirmed bookings so, let me see, that’s only another 128783 to go which is doable.

Penalties for tourists who break rules
Bangkok Post
29/06/2021

There will be penalties for people who break their 14-day mandatory stay in Phuket as the provincial government has been given full authority to impose a fine or withdraw quarantine-free privilege from tourists.
The regulations, published in the Royal Gazette, not only grants permission to Phuket to reopen without quarantine to inoculated tourists but also authorised nine other pilot areas to reopen in the next stage but with different rules and restrictions based on the situation of each province, said Yuthasak Supasorn, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor.
The standard operating procedures (SOP) will include penalties for travellers who breach health safety regulations imposed by local disease control departments.
It is up to each provincial governor or provincial command centre to determine which health safety measures are suitable for their geography and consider charges against people who fail to follow the rules.
For Phuket, the province mandates a 14-day stay on the island in July.
The province issued an order on June 25 stating that both Thais and foreigners who do not comply with control measures may face punishment as stated in Section 51 and 52 of disease control laws which includes a fine of up to 20,000 baht and 100,000 baht, respectively.
However, Mr Yuthasak said punishments might be made less severe when the Phuket sandbox comes into effect on Thursday. The authorities might consider lighter punishments such as revoking quarantine exemptions and requiring tourists to lodge in alternative local quarantine if found guilty.
"There shouldn't be any problem as tourists have already expressed their intention to stay longer on the island. As noted on the SHA Plus Booking Authentication System [SHABA], the average length of stay for the first 15 days of this project was at 11.9 nights per guest," he said.
SHABA is the back-end system that ensures that tourists complete mandatory stays in Phuket. It can track bookings and the payments tourists have already made to hotels certified under the Thailand Safety and Health Administration (SHA Plus) prior to arrival.
Mr Yuthasak said Koh Samui, Krabi, Phangnga should be the next destinations to reopen to vaccinated tourists using a similar approach as Phuket.
However, the timeline of each area depends on flight operations as the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has to grant permission and provide specific regulations to airports and airlines that want to fly direct to Samui and Krabi.
Siripakorn Cheawsamoot, TAT deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, said there are at least 217 guests who have already booked and paid for hotel rooms for July 1.
During the first two weeks of reopening, 1,101 bookings totalling about 13,000 room nights have been made with SHA Plus hotels.
He said Bangkok Airways and Qatar Airways have confirmed their interest to serve international flights to Samui, however, due to a short runway, the airport can accommodate just narrow-bodied jets which cannot fly long-haul routes.
"We still need CAAT to decide to allow inbound tourists to transit at Suvarnabhumi Airport which will be more practical," Mr Yuthasak said.