Baht What up with Dat?????

[Bump]

Wonder if the BOT can convience these 5000 people that everythign is OK, not to worry

5,000 workers find factory closed


(dpa) - Thousands of Thai labourers on Wednesday demonstrated against the surprise closure of a garment factory that has allegedly shut shop for lack of export orders.

An estimated 5,000 labourers blocked traffic on Gingkeow Raod in Samut Prakan province, adjoining Bangkok, after they were shut out of the Thaisilipa Arcanay Import-Export Company when they arrived for work Wednesday morning.

The Thai-owned factory, which specialises in sports clothing for the export market, had not informed the workers of their intention to close the factory beforehand. When they arrived Wednesday morning they found the doors shut and a sign posted "Closing Business."

A protest ensued that blocked traffic in the already congested area.

"We're negotiating with the protestors to find a solution," said Phadungsak Thephasadin Na Ayuthaya, director-general of the Department of Labour Protection and Welfare.

He said the factory had been forced to close because of lack of orders from its main clients, which include well-known brands such as Nike and Adidas.

Phadungsak said the factory owed the laid-off labourers at least 150 million baht (4.4 million dollars) in compensation.

The factory closure comes at a time of rising concern about Thailand's export competitiveness in the face of the baht currency's rapid and seemingly endless appreciation against the US dollar.

Despite the appreciation, Thailand's exports rose 18.8 percent during the first five months of this year, to reach 58.74 billion dollars.

But the Export-Import Bank of Thailand warned earlier this week that the export surge was primarily in high-tech items such as electronics, electrical appliances, automobiles and auto parts, that require a large import component.

Apichai Boontherawara, president of the state-owned EXIM Thailand, has warned that the surge in these high-tech exports was creating an "illusion" that Thailand's export picture was a bright one.

He noted that while these high-tech items, which account for a whopping 64 per cent of the country's total export value, are performing well, many lower-tech products such as garments, shoes and agricultural products are losing competitiveness because of the rising baht.

Thailand's baht currency has appreciated more than 4 per cent against the dollar already this year, and rose about 12 per cent against the greenback in 2006.

Exports account for some 60 per cent of Thailand's gross domestic product.

[tawan3]

I can relate to that. My friend had to close her textile factory in Thonburi because she was 10 baht per unit more expensive. She lost it to China after 20 years in business.

[Bump]

The statement of letting the baht flow just like the orther currencies in the region. I think being at the top of the heap is not doing like others. Unless I've missed something the baht is at the top of the list agian. Gee, changes by the governments approach I'm sure had nothign to do with that. We change regulations and in hours and things go nuts , Naw! couldn't have anything to do with that.

[quote]
CURRENCY / CONTINUING APPRECIATION AND ITS IMPACT

Inflows to SET keep lifting baht
Central bank sees relief in second half

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

The baht yesterday continued to gain ground against the US dollar despite intervention by the Bank of Thailand.

The currency strengthened to as much as 33.45 to the dollar yesterday, up from 33.77/80 on Monday. The baht has gained 7% against the dollar so far this year.

Central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said the appreciation of the baht stemmed from capital inflows by investors in the stock market, and urged exporters to not panic and dump dollar holdings.


A woman studies exchange rates at a TMB Bank counter in Bangkok yesterday, as the baht continued its gains, closing at 33.45 to the dollar.

[tawan3]

Central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said the appreciation of the baht stemmed from capital inflows by investors in the stock market, and urged exporters to not panic and dump dollar holdings.

''Yes, there are some who are investing due to the country's strong economic fundamentals and hold a long-term view

Strong economic fundamentals what about the other half of the formula no jobs no consumer demand.

[Bump]

Hurry up and get back maybe we can run you in the election

[tawan3]

[BKKSTAN]

Bloomberg TV onshore 33.45 to 1 USD,offshore 30.70 right now!

[aznyron]

Tawan It could not happen soon enough for me I am waiting for th bot to come crumbling down and I will be the happiest falong in Udon Thani I hate getting ripped off if the baht was so stong why is it the thai and falongs paying top dollor for fuel at the gas pumps? why are we seeing price increase in all food etc. today on thai TV they said the farmers can not sell there rice because the baht was to strong I guess no one really cares who loses there azz it just a shame the poor and working class as well as the middle class get screwed over again

[Bump]

It took a Deputy Prime Minister to figure ther might be an outflow of funds, don't suppose do you

Things are not shaping up well in the world economy, if the states slip into recession and that seems to be a high possibilty these days. That will effect the world economy. I've read many who think that is just wonderful, but like or not The US economy is huge and when it suffers it won't be alone. Many thing are really lining up that don't look good for Thailand.

Reading between the lines it's obviuos that some measures the were used in the 97 crash are being used now. Something as huge as TOT having problems does not bode well. Inflation is hitting big time at the moment. On the TV news tonight they mentioned because of the higher fuel costs, costs of cosumer goods will be going up. Never mentioned before sounds like the Government is preparing the local people for a shock

We have interesting days ahead.

[quote]
State agencies urged to monitor short-term exchange volatility
BANGKOK, July 11 (TNA) -- Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras on Tuesday suggested state agencies concerned keep a watch on the short-term currency exchange volatility since some foreign capital flown into the country might flow out at any time.

He said the Bank of Thailand

[aznyron]

[quote="ray23"]It took a Deputy Prime Minister to figure ther might be an outflow of funds, don't suppose do you

Things are not shaping up well in the world economy, if the states slip into recession and that seems to be a high possibilty these days. That will effect the world economy. I've read many who think that is just wonderful, but like or not The US economy is huge and when it suffers it won't be alone. Many thing are really lining up that don't look good for Thailand.

Reading between the lines it's obviuos that some measures the were used in the 97 crash are being used now. Something as huge as TOT having problems does not bode well. Inflation is hitting big time at the moment. On the TV news tonight they mentioned because of the higher fuel costs, costs of cosumer goods will be going up. Never mentioned before sounds like the Government is preparing the local people for a shock

We have interesting days ahead.

[quote]
State agencies urged to monitor short-term exchange volatility
BANGKOK, July 11 (TNA) -- Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras on Tuesday suggested state agencies concerned keep a watch on the short-term currency exchange volatility since some foreign capital flown into the country might flow out at any time.

He said the Bank of Thailand

[nevket240]

If you look around you will find most markets awash with speculative money. the mature Western markets are starting to wobble, the returns stagnating.
The hedge funds are now looking more closely at the 2nd tier markets for a return that gets them over their performance hurdle. However these smaller less mature markets are less steady then the old Western ones. The US market is being held up by foreign money itself as the $US drops. Maybe if the $US drops a few points more then some of the speculative cash in Thailand will be pulled and sent to the US. (just thinking out aloud over the thud of a hard landing)
cheers,

[Bump]

No I don't think your wrong at all in the short term, there will be profits. the problem here is what happens to Thailand when the profits are taken.

Tha actual goods produced are now more expensive to buy with the dollar. The factory that closed today produced sports clothing for Nike. To expensive they have other sources my guess is they decided to buy where it was cheaper for them. Hence the factory had no orders and 5,000 people lost thier jobs overnight.
Now to a guy doing the stocks that means nothing, but to those people that lost those job that was the money they were using to live, not to speculate. I honestly believe there will be many more before this is over.

If you had the money to do it and knew when to get it you could a fortune right now. Which is exactly what these investors are doing. Relaxing the rules opened the flood gates for short term investors. The reason they picked Thailand is it and the thier market is small easy to manipulate.

The problem doesn't lie in the money coming in for Thailand it's when it goes out.

If I can buy a gidget from you that costs. three dollars and I can buy the same gidget from Vietnam for a dollar. Where do you think I might buy a million gidgets?

That is what is happening in the export market for many items exported from Thailand. Many companies have already been running a break even or loss to keep the doors open, in the clothing sector. Then another hit in the baht this week, was maore then this company could handle and they closed the doors.

If yuo are a smart investor it doesn't get much bettre then this, but it is not good for the average Thai, nor the Average American retiree.

If these were long term investors it would a completly differrent thing, but they already bailed out once. When the government controls were put in palae a huge exodus. For thi type of investors, things start not looking good a ton of money will go out of the country very quickly. A terrible prospect for an unemployed Thai. Won't hurt the avrerage Ameican retiree, matter of fact will probably help that person. He just has to go through some uncomfort for a while.

This is my home I hate to see this happeing, in the long run whats good for the average Thai is good for me as well. There were huge amounts of money made in the 97 crash, but the country nor did the average Thai make any.

Those 5,000 people were earning 190 a day, that one move means that there 950,000 baht per day not going back into the local economy , if my math is correct and that just one business. However, those that can maipulate the marked didn't lose that today..

So the good or bad at the moment depends on where you stand in this?

There areas that export is still good, but the people laid off today can't fill those positions. One they are already full, and electronics requires a different kind of skill then making clothes.

So I don't disagree wih you at all, I'm just looking a little further down line. If the economy colapses here it will help me, not hurt me But it would be a much better deal if no one got hurt, I don't think that is what is going to happen.

I could be very wrong. On a long term basis of the baht at 25 and he inflation that happened over a ten year period. make this a much more expenisive place to visit or live, for dollar holders. 25 to a dollar wouldn; bothe me at all, if tat 25 baht had the same purchasing power it had ten years ago. It doesn't and more the likely never will

Some changes are coming and time will tell. My views can be very wrong, the economy is an area where I have no experience, actually started this thread a very long time ago to learn from others. I hope I have learned for those on the forum much more knowlegable then I.

[Bump]

Central Bank Asked to Curb Strong Baht
UPDATE : 11 July 2007

The Finance Ministry has ordered the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to curb the current strengthening Thai baht. In the meantime, the BOT governor says lowering interest rates does not help to stabilize the Thai baht value.

Finance Minister Chalongpob Susangkarn said he has already ordered the Bank of Thailand to be responsible for handling the strengthening Thai baht caused by the influx of foreign investments in the stock market.

However, the minister added that new measures are unnecessary as the BOT's active regulations can still soothe the situation.

In the meantime, governmental agencies have been requested to speed up their purchase of U.S. dollars for mega projects, to help weaken the Thai baht value.

BOT governor Tarisa Wattanaket insisted that strategies to reduce interest rates will not help the Thai baht depreciate. On the contrary, a lower interest rate will attract more investors to invest in the country and this will create more pressure on the Thai baht.

Since the beginning of the year, foreign business people have already invested 1.2 billion baht in Thailand. However, the Thai baht value is expected to weaken due to the anticipated private mega projects to be initiated in the second half of the year.

The BOT governor added that besides the flow of foreign investment, exporters' dump of U.S. dollars in the stock market is another cause of the strengthening Thai baht.

[Bump]

Unfortunately I think it will take trillions not billions, but she is a great spin doctor.

[quote]
BoT sees baht stablising


The Governor of the Bank of Thailand said the Bank is not resisting market force, but it will take steps to reduce volatility of the currency to allow the business sector to adjust.

The baht has appreciated to hit the record peak of 33.30 baht per dollar, raising alarm in many sectors.

Bank of Thailand governor Tarisa Watanagase said Thailand continued to see a strong stream of capital inflow, plus rising demand for the currency in the market. Even though the Bank has stepped in to stabilise the currency, it cannot resist the force of the market.

Nonetheless Mrs Tarisa said she was optimistic that concerns regarding the strong baht should ease soon, now that exporters have stopped dumping the greenback and there is greater awareness of the situation.

The governor added that the extent of capital inflow should not be as intense as that seen in the previous week.

The central bank, Mrs Tarisa insisted, has no plans to intervene to sustain the currency value at any particular level, as such intervention requires a hefty currency reserve level. She pointed out that China has managed to stabilise the yuan because the country holds US$1.2 trillion in reserve. Whereas Thailand

[BKKSTAN]

Yahoo finance shows THB 30.57 to 1 USD at this moment!

[nevket240]

from the business section of todays Australian.

Asian problems may 'easily return'
Katherine Jimenez
July 12, 2007

FORMER Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Stephen Grenville warned yesterday that the "old problems" contributing to the 1997 Asian crisis "could easily return" and questioned whether sufficient reforms had taken place to handle another downturn.
Dr Grenville, who is now working as an Asian finance consultant, warned that capital flows were still volatile and financial sectors remained fragile.

In addition, he said that "exchange rates are much more clearly unanchored than they were in 1997".

"So those old problems that we saw in 1997 could easily return," he said in a speech at the Lowy Institute entitled "Ten years after the Asian crisis: Is the International Monetary Fund ready for the next time?"

He said that a shortage of foreign currency reserves in Asian economies was still a problem.

Dr Grenville also took aim at the International Monetary Fund, claiming it had lost credibility in the region during the crisis.

This meant that countries would be reluctant to call on the IMF for assistance.

He also questioned whether enough reforms had been undertaken to handle another Asian crisis.

"Who knows whether the reforms have been enough?" Dr Grenville said later. "We know that there have been some reforms but we don't know the nature of the crisis, so we don't know whether they will be enough."

Earlier he told delegates that it was a pity the Asian Monetary Fund did not get a run.

"You do need an international lender of last resort but the countries have said 'never again'," he said.

He suggested that the G-20 could be an ideal place to discuss reform of the Fund and "working out a better financial architecture than we have had at the moment".

"I think we ought to be thinking about shifting things out of the fund ... into other places, including G-20.

"When net capital once again flows from the mature countries to the emerging countries of east Asia, the core vulnerabilities of the crisis period will re-emerge."

He warned there was "too much faith that floating exchange rates have removed vulnerabilities. If there is another sudden stop-capital reversal, the Fund has insufficient resources to act as international lender of last resort, and has not been given the institutionalised procedures to organise creditor standstills and debt restructuring".

Dr Grenville said that while the IMF had an upbeat view about how the Asian crisis was resolved, he said that, excluding Singapore, South Asia had not done so well since the crisis.

To expand again, Dr Grenville said, the Asian economies would have to run current account deficits as a price for attracting foreign investment.

He said the Indonesian and Thai economies should be expanding much faster than they are now.

He suggested that the IMF's description of a V-shape recovery in the region was more "L-shaped".

With AAP

cheers.

[Bandung_Dero]

This morning offshore rate 30.65 and onshore (Kasikornbank) 33.20. You Americans must be realy feeling the pinch. I just paid a USD$220.00 bill cost me 7630 Baht inc charges the same bill last year was 8700. Great for me but the inverse applies to you guys.

[nevket240]

An interesting thought. The Asian area is more or less an economic block in its own right, right?? Much like the EU and the Nth American trade area.

As the yuan appreciates, as it must, every other Asian currency would rise, possibly regardless of their national fundamentals. The rise may not be in step with the yuan but a rise can be expected. Well.
Watch the Yuan rise from here on in. The Chinese, as a burgeoning consumer nation, will expect more Western and foreigh luxury goods. The price of raw commodoties are on the way UP as well, and the best way to get them cheap is to allow your currency to appreciate.

The Baht has only one way to go against the $US at present and, to a large extent, regardless of the internal economics. (thinking out aloud again)

cheers.

[JimboPSM]

Last December I was initially impressed by the strong stance taken by the Bank of Thailand when it introduced new rules to prevent speculation in the THB.

At the time I said:

This is a fairly draconian step to stop the currency speculators - it may prove to be a bit over the top but they now have an additional tool in being able to vary the lockup percentage.

In 1997 it was western speculators who made a killing at Thailand's expense - it looks like an expensive lesson was learnt at that time and BoT is doing its best to stop the speculators getting a second bite.

The rules were a bit over the top and rather draconian, but they did have a lot of merit

[Frankie 1]

One good reason to have your money in a Thai bank.
Up to 7.6% "interest rate" since January.