Post Covid ecomony

[pipoz4444]

This may help the Thai tourist industry, if only it becomes a reality.

The Thai Baht Forecast for 2021 - 2022

35 or 36 to the USD would be nice for all travelers

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

pipoz4444

[rick]

I am travelling back to the UK in a few days. Prices are quite variable, and of course currently limited choice of airlines. Prices are between about 500 GBP (for less desirable routes) to over 1,000 GBP return economy. The top end is a bit more expensive but still some reasonable routes for under 700 GBP. Future prices look higher but when more planes start flying prices will fall.

[parrot]

A couple of observations over the past few days:
Tops and Ngeesoon have had some good deals over the past few weeks......Ngeesoon with lots of buy one get one. I get the impression that maybe because of reduced demand, some of the vendors are trying to keep the products moving to avoid them going bad. Nothing I noticed was out of date, or even near, though.
Today in Central, I had flashbacks to the depths of Thaitanic in 1998/9 when the economy came to a screeching halt. I don't think we're there yet.....but I did wonder how the economic scale works in keeping a big place like Central open when there are so few people. There's a fair amount of people who aren't drawing paychecks and have bills to pay......for the younger folks especially, I'd guess there's not a whole lot of savings to keep them afloat.
Interesting times.....and times ahead!

[stattointhailand]

Not only the youngsters that are struggling parrot, the "comfortably off" are now at the end of their savings, have next to no income of any kind and still need food/electricity etc.
Whilst we laugh and joke about being "ripped off" occationally for buffalo vet fees etc etc so father in law can get his nightly beers/cigs, now might be a good time for us all the check on our family/friends/hangers on even. I'm not too happy handing over money so perhaps for the price of a couple beers (money saved with bars not open) I might perhaps offer to pay a couple of B500 lekky bills on their behalf to ease the burden

[pipoz4444]

You can complain about where you are and some of the hardships that the Governments, might impose, but just try living in a place like this.

I feel for those who own, what were once Businesses and also for those who used to work in them. They are now truly F..ked.

This is straight out of the Movie "World Z"







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyi5FXajl3o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpy9QA53JY

I can't see it ever being permitted to happen in Thailand, no matter how bad things might get.

And for sure as hell it will never be permitted to happen where I am.

pipoz4444

[rick]

Well, made it back to UK but it was a it of a nail biter. Had to book 3 times to get a flight out of Udon, first both got cancelled. The 3rd flight was the last option to make it in time, and as the last flight for 2 days it was expensi e as well. Alzo had issue with the PCR test, only got tbe result 2 hours beflre the flight. Finally worked out that my flight out of Amsterdam actually took off 56 minutez after the test expired! All documents checked in Bangkok and Amsterdam, but they didn't spot that. Heathrow never asked for anything!!!!
Back to economy - Udon flight half full, Bangkok flight 30%, Amsterdam 80%. Hotel in Banvkok had only 3 guests, all closed except ground floor, just 2 staff. At Suvanabhumi nearly allshops closed and the rezt closed at 8 p.m., just as the airport got busy......

[tamada]

^ Glad you made it OK. I am checking flights and fares 2 or 3 times a week despite my U.K. travel (from Malaysia) not happening until some time in September. KLM via Singapore and Amsterdam to Manchester looked like the best bet but Singapore Airlines have a non-stop SIN-MAN on their schedule now and it's cheaper/quicker and one stop less than the KLM route. Should prevent running out the shot clock.

I am budgeting a one-way ticket as it's still all to tenuous with however the infections go after the UK opens up next week AND heading into regular flu season.

[rick]

Warning - EU is red zoning Thailand as of today (according to my son). Haven' t found any details yet so not sure what the impact on travel is but looks like i had a close shave. Also UK has just ambered the Balearic islands - surprise, surprise. Holiday makers have 2 days to get out after that home quarantine.
Best of luck with yor travel plans Tamada, but impossible to predict what international travel rules will be then.

[Shado]

You've had quite an experience getting back home for a visit Rick, I hope the rest of your trip goes a little smoother. Those "nail biters" take a little time to recover from. Thanks for your updates and observations.

[tamada]

Warning - EU is red zoning Thailand as of today (according to my son). Haven' t found any details yet so not sure what the impact on travel is but looks like i had a close shave. Also UK has just ambered the Balearic islands - surprise, surprise. Holiday makers have 2 days to get out after that home quarantine.
Best of luck with yor travel plans Tamada, but impossible to predict what international travel rules will be then.

I posted those uk.gov travel advisory updates in the Covid Important Info thread. No official mention of Thailand or Malaysia yet but it does look inevitable as their rising rates are almost identical. IMHO, the UK took their time to red-list Indonesia as that's been a 5 times worse than Thailand for quite a while, almost like the Indian situation when it comes to bolted horses.

I have another team working offshore Vietnam right now and they're due to finish before the end of this month. No chance of a repatriation through Vietnam and the usual transit routes via Indonesia and Malaysia don't look good at all. A couple of the guys are Singaporean and are already resigned to a 14-day quarantine on arrival... if they can even get there.

[Drunk Monkey]

Heres a prediction ... im just sensing something is in the wind ... and its nowt to do with smoked salmon overkill !!

The return of Mr T to Thai shores in 2022 ..

Remember you heard it here first folks .

[DuiDui49]

Heres a prediction ... im just sensing something is in the wind ... and its nowt to do with smoked salmon overkill !!

The return of Mr T to Thai shores in 2022 ..

Remember you heard it here first folks .

Yepp got that info from my wife yesterday..And goes like this...an individual is going to let Mr.T in to Thailand to work together with PM..no smoke no fire right..I know quite a few Thais that would welcome that Boxing match ;-)But i guess PM needs all the help he can get and Mr.T have alot of International contacts,which could been seen as a positive i guess.
And Mr.T himself said that he come back to Thailand soon...so time will tell.But to come here and NOT do his time in jail,well...TiT i guess.And why PM is still going to be just that even if Mr.T is coming back..well i read it like this:Safe face.

What u all think?

[tamada]

^ It can't happen until AFTER Tuu makes a statement that it's not going to happen.

Then it's Mr. T for President (of the Republic), Tuu retains the PM's slot and Germany gains a (more) permanent resident.

[pipoz4444]

Do you believe this, from the World Bank, written one week ago? Items 2, 3 and 4???

1.The recovery is expected to accelerate in 2022, with the annual GDP growth rate projected to rise to 5.1 percent depending on: (i) solid progress on domestic vaccination rates; (ii) an improvement in the global trajectory of COVID-19 sufficient to allow international tourism to partially recover; and (iii) the full disbursement of the recently approved THB 500 billion fiscal response package.

2.The official unemployment rate remained at 2 percent in the first quarter of 2021, up from 1 percent in the first quarter of 2020. More than half of all unemployed workers were formerly engaged in the services sector. By the first quarter of 2021, there were 710,000 fewer jobs than in the fourth quarter of 2020

3.Poverty rates would have increased by 1.6 percent in rural areas and by 1 percent in urban centers, with the largest increase in northeastern Thailand, which had the country’s highest regional poverty rate in 2019.

4.The government earmarked about 1 trillion baht in public spending for economic stimulus and support to the most vulnerable households. Around 70 percent of the authorized COVID-19 response spending has been allocated to support households, largely through cash transfers and subsidies, with a smaller share being directed to support the recovery of the private sector.

5.In May 2021, the government announced the approval of an additional 500 billion baht in borrowing, which will fund further support to households and could boost GDP by around 1.5 percentage points over the counterfactual scenario.


Re. Item 2 Who are they not counting?

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/th ... o-recovery

pipoz4444

[tamada]

You can complain about where you are and some of the hardships that the Governments, might impose, but just try living in a place like this.

I feel for those who own, what were once Businesses and also for those who used to work in them. They are now truly F..ked.

This is straight out of the Movie "World Z"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyi5FXajl3o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpy9QA53JY

I can't see it ever being permitted to happen in Thailand, no matter how bad things might get.

And for sure as hell it will never be permitted to happen where I am.

pipoz4444

Hasn't it kicked off in Sydney (and Adelaide and Melbourne and Brisbane) already?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... protesters

[tamada]

Meanwhile, in Canada, a very very worrying precursor to the new normal observed at Vancouver international airport.

The Canadian vaccine "passport".

https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/ ... ls-at-yvr/

[the-monk]

Mr Tamada you got it all wrong. First, the unvaccinated SHOULD not be on an airplane. Let them walk.
When you fly internationally you always get 2 arrival procedures at your destination, one for the Nationals and one for the Aliens. Why would a vaccinated passenger wait in line with unvaccinated passengers who might need to fill landing, health paperwork delaying everyone and risk infection? I applaud the YVR approach and hope it will be put in place all over the world while this COVID crisis lives on.
Stay safe where ever you are.

[pipoz4444]

You can complain about where you are and some of the hardships that the Governments, might impose, but just try living in a place like this.

I feel for those who own, what were once Businesses and also for those who used to work in them. They are now truly F..ked.

This is straight out of the Movie "World Z"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyi5FXajl3o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpy9QA53JY

I can't see it ever being permitted to happen in Thailand, no matter how bad things might get.

And for sure as hell it will never be permitted to happen where I am.

pipoz4444

Hasn't it kicked off in Sydney (and Adelaide and Melbourne and Brisbane) already?

take that neddy.jpg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... protesters

But the Aussies are not out there pillaging, plundering, looting, shooting and killing. Big difference between what is taking place in South Africa and yesterday's events in Sydney, from what I can see, or am I looking through a different set of beer goggles. "Fair stretch of the G String".

In the words of Arnie, "Brigandage"

Mongo looks more Scottish than Australian



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9P2B7NUPfM


For sure they will catch the Idiot and charge him with something If I was the horse, I would have stomped on him. But then again, some ............in Australia would want to charge the horse with manslaughter.

Australia is becoming full of, the "Anal Retentive".

pipoz4444

[tamada]

Mr Tamada you got it all wrong. First, the unvaccinated SHOULD not be on an airplane. Let them walk.

Or, as in my case, let them swim? I live in Thailand and work in Malaysia (for now). That's two of the region's countries with the most dire vaccination roll outs. However, like many others, I need to work. You know, the much ignored and abused 'essential worker' paradigm that the western world invented that doesn't really exist, especially in the boonies?

When you fly internationally you always get 2 arrival procedures at your destination, one for the Nationals and one for the Aliens.

That segregation is an IMMIGRATION requirement, not a HEALTH requirement. Sheesh.

Why would a vaccinated passenger wait in line with unvaccinated passengers who might need to fill landing, health paperwork delaying everyone and risk infection?

Point of order required here. The PRIMARY function of the vaccine is to lessen the severity of YOUR symptoms and YOUR illness if and when you catch Covid. The vaccine doesn't magically cure you or make you less likely to spread it. The coronavirus may not be the same as the flu but the current vaccines deliver the same level of protection as the annual flu shot did for the flu.

I applaud the YVR approach and hope it will be put in place all over the world while this COVID crisis lives on.
Stay safe where ever you are.

Canada had one of the worlds worst reputations when vaccines first became available. I recall they had ordered something like four times the shots they needed and hadn't even started their own priority, at-risk group vaccination program. They were one of the first to be labeled vaccine hoarders. Arguably, they have caught up but their progress is mostly couched in terms of a comparison with the US's rollout, hardly a great yard stick. So what are they doing to help those who live in vaccine backwaters like Thailand and want to fly ANYWHERE? Are they vaccinating their nationals living overseas? How much have they contributed to COVAX? Oops. Forget that last question.

"Canada is the only member of the G7 group of rich countries listed as a Covax beneficiary at this stage."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55932997

That's a bit embarrassing no? Use the vaccines donated to the less well-heeled for your own lot and then openly discriminate and bugger about with those who can't get vaccinated?

Sorry, but until the rich and clever countries (and Canada) have done their bit to make sure the WORLD gets vaccinated, such segregation and 'vaccine passports' are a worthless 'look at me' flag wave from a desperate national leadership.

PS: Just a quick note, Thailand and Malaysia has virtually identical rising infection rates and low vaccination rates until maybe 3 weeks ago. Then Malaysia somehow got with the program and their vaccination drive has taken off. I am non-resident in Malaysia but I easily registered for a vaccine shot. Meanwhile it's still a bit of a moon shot in Thailand.

[Niggly]

Breaking News:
First images emerging of the new Blitish Vaccine Passport to be accepted by Border & Immigration desks near you from 1st October 2020




(You might need to show 2 or 3 depending on the officer)