Belarus

[noosard]

Mr Lukashenko, one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies, claimed Ukraine had been preparing to attack Belarus,
"I have already said that Ukraine today it is not just discussing but planning strikes on Belarusian territory," he said during a security meeting in the capital of Minsk, according to the BelTA news agency.
"From the military point of view this is madness."
"We have been preparing for this for decades
"If necessary, we will respond."

Cant trust those sneaky Ukraines

[tamada]

Lukashenko is Putin's third nipple.

[FrazeeDK]

if you look at a lot of what Lukasehnko says about the Ukraine war and supporting Putin it is word salad. He avoids committing Belarus to open support with troops on the ground.. He is shipping tanks and artillery ammo to Russia which likely keeps Putin off his ass.. He allows missile attacks on Ukraine from Belarus territory but doesn't let Belarusian military get involved.. I just don't see Lukashenko jumping into the conflict with his ground forces. He's got enough internal strife since his flaky presidential election..

[Whistler]

I hope you are right Mr F.

My concern is opening a second front in Ukraine. The Ruskies are getting the snot kicked out of them in the East. The Russian generals are not totally stupid, opening a second front in the north will force Ukraine do divert forces in the east to redeploy which will give the Russian army a chance to regroup.

If ordered to do so, Belarus will do their master's bidding.

[noosard]

Would actual be a third front
already have East and South

[deankham]

Apologies for going off-topic somewhat but I wonder where Kaliningrad sits in all this mess? I think I'm correct that it is part of Russia but sitting out on it's own sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Good opportunity to give them independence from Russia? Or to destroy them!

Is there any possibility of Poland getting in on the action and smashing through Belarus along with Ukraine? I'd think not but would certainly liven things up even more.

[Whistler]

There is one contiguous front in the east of Ukraine that roughly stretches NE to SE along the border of Russian controlled provinces, it is under the command of one General, Valeriy Zaluzhny. While this is a long front, it is relatively easy to move Ukrainian forces to any point along that front.

If noos wants to call this two fronts or two zones it is semantics, it is a contiguous front.

An attack from Belarus would be an entirely new front to the North on the Belarus border over 600kms from the Eastrrn front.

[noosard]

Notice the blue regions to red regions with the dark circles
This is actually where most of the war is been fought at present

[Whistler]

Yes, what is your point? My post stated a new front in the north would be a new front and would split Ukrainian forces over two fronts more than 600km apart. No maps of the existing front changes that

[FrazeeDK]

The Ukrainians already have troops concentrated along the Belarusian border albeit they are Terroritorials. However, gvien the utter incompetence of the Russians I imagine the Belarusians are down a notch from that.. In the event the Belarusians stepped across the border they could well be kicking a hornets nest they can't run away from.

As for Kaliningrad I've read that Putin pulled a lot of troops out of the exclave, moving them to the eastern front. In watching the Radar Tracking site there are a lot of Russian transport aircraft going back and forth from Kaliningrad to Ste. Petersburg or Moscow. I seriously doubt the Russians would start anything with Poland out of Kalningrad since it would pull NATO into the conflict full bore. That would be seriously bad news for the Russians and the Belarusians if they stick their nose in much deeper..

[Whistler]

Freeze, a whole lot of sense in what you say. My concern is commonse seems a scarce commodity in this region.

[Stantheman]

I wonder what might happen internally in Belarus if they did cross over into Ukraine. Wasn't there almost a change in government there a few years ago that failed due to Russian intervention. With Russia occupied with Ukraine they don't have the troops/ equipment to support Belarus.

[Whistler]

Gee Stan, I never thought about that possibly happen, something to hope for

[tamada]

Apologies for going off-topic somewhat but I wonder where Kaliningrad sits in all this mess? I think I'm correct that it is part of Russia but sitting out on it's own sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Good opportunity to give them independence from Russia? Or to destroy them!

Is there any possibility of Poland getting in on the action and smashing through Belarus along with Ukraine? I'd think not but would certainly liven things up even more.

If Ukraine steps outside its own recognized borders militarily, I think the spigot in Washington would be turned off. Despite showing they have the capability to strike inside Russia, those events have been quite isolated and more likely to have been a local Ukrainian commander going "off piste" rather than any great show of strike capability.

As for Belarus, Lukashenko has been treading a fine line on keeping Putin onside. He allowed Russian troops to launch part of their initial, unsuccessful northern assault from Belarus but as noted already, his army isn't up to much in size or capability. There's also a possibility that the army command could turn against him if he orders them into Ukraine as part of Putin's blind rush for hegemony. Their history has seen more foreign lives lost inside their borders in wars perpetrated by others than any other European nation. Going all-in with Russia would see their fragile nationhood vanish, either under Russian "rule" or some fragile, disarmed, UN-endorsed no-man's-land between the superpowers.

[Whistler]

The Belarus navy could still be used to shell areas in southern Ukraine if it is redeployed to the Black Sea

[noosard]

Turkey have not be allowing even russian warships to enter the Black sea

[jackspratt]

Whooosh......

[Whistler]

Turkey have not be allowing even russian warships to enter the Black sea

They would not be able to block a Belarus navy ship. The BRN Nieisnujučaha would slip in unnoticed.

[noosard]

Yes the phantom navy would get past Turks

[Whistler]

Turkey have not be allowing even russian warships to enter the Black sea

https://images.app.goo.gl/W8XftR1vz9uG7vmA6