Russia

[FrazeeDK]

all these news media stories about "lights out in Ukraine" seem to completely ignore that Ukraine has done quite well in emergency responses to such attacks. I'm sure there are crews working 24/7 to restore power/heat/water. In fact when you read down into a lot of these stories there iusually a blurm on "power might be out up to 24 hours.... I'll wait a week to see how well they do in fixing the damaged infrastructure...

[tamada]

all these news media stories about "lights out in Ukraine" seem to completely ignore that Ukraine has done quite well in emergency responses to such attacks. I'm sure there are crews working 24/7 to restore power/heat/water. In fact when you read down into a lot of these stories there iusually a blurm on "power might be out up to 24 hours.... I'll wait a week to see how well they do in fixing the damaged infrastructure...

My point exactly with my earlier "Resilience" post.

I was in Lancaster when the UK's first, named severe storm Desmond dumped on Cumbria and the northwest and washed out the city's power station. After the third day, the battery backup on cell towers expired so it was a near total blackout. I was staying at the Holiday Inn just off the M6 and on the fourth day, fleets of massive portable power generators started assembling in their extended parking lot. Some of these were enormous, filling an 18-wheeler trailer. They were from all over the UK and a few came from Europe. Over the next 24-hours or so, these were deployed and plugged into various locations in and around the city and temporary power restored while they took another ten day's to sort out the power station.

[mak]

Vladmir Putin is telling his military commanders Russia need to deploy five million troops in order to triumph in Ukraine.
Looks like the war is just getting started.

[tamada]

Vladmir Putin is telling his military commanders Russia need to deploy five million troops in order to triumph in Ukraine.
Looks like the war is just getting started.

He's a bit late, no? There's probably half of those 5 million already flown the coop and roosting in Phuket. Looking at Flightradar, they are flying in from all sorts of minor Russian airports scattered all over the country.

One of the Russian data processors I was working with offshore Sabah has been in touch and he has settled with his family in Turkey for the moment. He was really worried last September because being of fit fighting age, he would have been conscripted on arrival in Moscow before he even got home. He says there's a very vibrant and active 'grapevine' that's enabling family members to depart and be reunited overseas but he was worried that Putin would close that loophole fast in order to get the Russian expat male worker to come home and fight.

[Khun Paul]

Anyone who reads History , will know of the devastation the Russian revolution caused, Millions dead and in fact only the fact the World went to War twice made them cojoin and fight an Enemy which also caused Millions of deaths. The fact they Murdered their Emperor and 95% of his family ( some children ) was conveniently swept under a carpet to ensure Russias assistance in getting rid of the Nazis.

Now the sticking plaster put in place by Lenin and Stalin is losing its adhesiveness and what none of us really want is the breakup of Russia, true many nations previously belonging to the NOW extinct USSR have become independent , but their independence is not as we understand it. Now those loose ties are under tremendous strains and may break`
An internal Russian Civil war will be worse than the American Civil war and would unleash severe detrimental effects on the worlds climate as well.```````````````````````````

[Whistler]

KP. I would suggest any prospect of a civil war in Rusdia is highly unlikely. The Russian revolution took place when peasants had firearms, external support from other countries was a big feature and there were powerful internal revolutionaries like the Menchavics and the Bolsheviks.

None of these enablers are in place today, it ain't 1917 any more.

What is more likely is Putin will be replaced with a less belligerent leader, either by a coup or at his death.

[Khun Paul]

Hopefully you are right, however nothing is off the table, Putin will GO, that is a certainty how is anyones guess, the resulting outcome will be the decider and I am not taking any bets on the outcome .
Russias loss of face, perceived standing in the world, anger and loss of so many for absolutely nothing will play a part !

[Mosquito]

Vladmir Putin is telling his military commanders Russia need to deploy five million troops in order to triumph in Ukraine.
Looks like the war is just getting started.

Ukraine currently has around 1 million trained combat troops (# includes police and border forces).

Doubt Russia can field 5 million troops within a year, even if they did and get a 5-1 advantage in troops on the battlefield....it still wouldn't be enough.

Only chance Putin/Russia has of winning in Ukraine ..... all material / financial support stops flowing into Ukraine. That's not likely, as hopefully Western Leaders can see the blood in the water and opportunity of preventing any significant aggression by Russia in the foreseeable future.
Use of tactical nuclear weapons, possible....Would Putin's generals actually obey a release order, which would basically be sealing their own death warrant?

Off the wall prediction. Putin either killed or removed from power before Feb 2023. Reasoning, winter will turn things from bad to worse for the Russian military and all hope for a Russian victory in Ukraine will evaporate along with Putin's strongest allies.

Just my view (2 cents worth) of the situation, don't take it tooooo seriously.

[Whistler]

Mossies, I hope you are right, a very plausible prediction. Timing may be too optimistic. Come Spring the Ukranians will probably drive Russia out of East Ukraine and maybe even cut off Crimea.

[parrot]

NYT piece today "Thousands of Russians are seeking asylum in the United States." Wonder if those coming to Thailand 'on vacation' have other plans.

[FrazeeDK]

gieen the ease with which asylees come into the US via its southern border I would imagine they're getting in.. As for those coming to Thailand, well, the Kingdom isn't known for granting blanket asylum...

[rick]

Saw one report that general winter is NOT on Russia's side this time. The ill equipped conscripts are in the field in open trenches without good winter clothing and are dying of hypothermia. Video showed them being bombed by a small drone, and they just sat there, hardly moving.

[tamada]

Saw one report that general winter is NOT on Russia's side this time. The ill equipped conscripts are in the field in open trenches without good winter clothing and are dying of hypothermia. Video showed them being bombed by a small drone, and they just sat there, hardly moving.

That sounds like the nonsense expert witness account I heard on BBC Five Live's simply awful "Ukrainecast" podcast before I could turn it off.

Expecting the freshly-bombed Russian conscripts to suddenly run around like headless chooks? They're not called stun grenades for nothing you know.

[Earnest]

Saw one report that general winter is NOT on Russia's side this time. The ill equipped conscripts are in the field in open trenches without good winter clothing and are dying of hypothermia. Video showed them being bombed by a small drone, and they just sat there, hardly moving.

You mean this one, Rick?

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/159 ... s7r8g&s=19

[rick]

Yes Steve, that's the one. The one i saw was from youtube via Aseannow.

[Earnest]

It's an odd one for sure. It all seems very bleak and they don't seem very motivated. Ten months on, the Russians seem to be a subjugated people who accept their lot at the hands of a little man who has the country by the testicles.

All very grim.

[Stantheman]

Saw one report that general winter is NOT on Russia's side this time. The ill equipped conscripts are in the field in open trenches without good winter clothing and are dying of hypothermia. Video showed them being bombed by a small drone, and they just sat there, hardly moving.

You mean this one, Rick?

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/159 ... s7r8g&s=19

After looking over video a few times, don't think it was a bomb, but a smoke marker for possible artillery

[tamada]

Saw one report that general winter is NOT on Russia's side this time. The ill equipped conscripts are in the field in open trenches without good winter clothing and are dying of hypothermia. Video showed them being bombed by a small drone, and they just sat there, hardly moving.

You mean this one, Rick?

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/159 ... s7r8g&s=19

After looking over video a few times, don't think it was a bomb, but a smoke marker for possible artillery

I think you are probably correct but that reality doesn't serve the narrative does it?

Everyone wants to see a weak and ill-equipped aggressor vanquished. That includes me but unfortunately, the draw- down of western weapon stockpiles to feed Ukraine hasn't resulted in critical levels just yet. As long as Putin is allowed to live and breath, this will go on for a bit longer which is fine and dandy for the arms makers in the US and the allies.

[mackayae]

Lavrov:
"we went to war against Ukraine"
Oops! I think he meant Special Military Operation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... 08bc4c5269

[mak]

It's Friday in Russia too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diNKI2-OTXU