It's all here.
"The idea of "peak oil" – a peak in the amount of oil we can physically extract, followed by an irreversible decline in production – has been around for decades. So far, though, it has never been reached on a global level.
Last month, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) – a global energy organisation that provides governments with analyses and policy support – announced we may soon reach a different but related value: a peak in the global use of (or "demand for") oil. ..."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2023 ... ally-means
Future energy sources?
Re: Future energy sources?
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
More Nuks on the way for Canada
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/0 ... ke%20Huron.
A few dollars to be spent for sure
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/0 ... ke%20Huron.
A few dollars to be spent for sure
Re: Future energy sources?
From Google: China Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 319,030,000 Unit in Dec 2022. This recorded an increase from the previous number of 294,185,906 Unit for Dec 2021. China Number of Registered Vehicles data is updated yearly, averaging 22,180,477 Unit from Dec 1983 to 2022. 
That's a lot of Cars
Car Production in China increased to 2,219,000 Units (2219 K Units) in June 2023
The forecast appears to be that by 2030 China will be producing well over 30 Million car units per Year
From the Article: China now has 13.8 million electric cars on its roads – over half of the world's electric car fleet
I agree that the EV will will increase over the next years, but that still leaves a hell of a lot of fossil fuel vehicles, running around
pipoz444
That's a lot of Cars Car Production in China increased to 2,219,000 Units (2219 K Units) in June 2023
The forecast appears to be that by 2030 China will be producing well over 30 Million car units per Year
From the Article: China now has 13.8 million electric cars on its roads – over half of the world's electric car fleet
I agree that the EV will will increase over the next years, but that still leaves a hell of a lot of fossil fuel vehicles, running around
pipoz444
Last edited by pipoz4444 on July 28, 2023, 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.
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Potamoi
- udonmap.com
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- Joined: April 11, 2022, 11:53 am
- Location: Halfway between Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch and Ona-i-Lau
Re: Future energy sources?
Well done Canada. It's about time nuclear energy and nuclear weapons are discussed separately without the fear mongering.Doodoo wrote: ↑July 27, 2023, 7:38 pmMore Nuks on the way for Canada
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/0 ... ke%20Huron.
A few dollars to be spent for sure
Even Patrick Moore, former director of Greenpeace said “Nuclear energy is the safest of all the electricity technologies we have.”
https://www.ans.org/news/article-4126/f ... ar-energy/
I fear the man who drinks water and so remembers this morning what the rest of us said last night
Benjamin Franklin
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to talk and remove all doubt
Maurice Switzer *(assumed)
Benjamin Franklin
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to talk and remove all doubt
Maurice Switzer *(assumed)
Re: Future energy sources?
Running out of wind?
For better or worse, the boosters of the much-advertised energy transition decided early on to focus their subsidy strategy on a trio of voracious rent-seeking industries: Wind and solar in power generation, and electric vehicles in transportation. It is a sort of green three-legged stool that we have been assured by activists, politicians, media and the industries themselves would be able to rapidly displace villainous fossil fuels in a cheap and seamless manner.
But a funny thing has happened on the way to our new net-zero utopia, as two of the three legs of the stool have begun to show clear signs of financial distress that could render this stool highly unstable. The EV business was the first to signal that things were not going to plan early this year as unsold inventory began to pile up on dealer lots amid slowing demand, stubborn inflation, and rising interest rates.
In recent weeks, some analysts have begun to predict that peak EV adoption could happen in the next 2-3 years and top out at just 10-12 per cent of the total vehicle fleet. Distressed automakers like Ford and GM have recently announced cancellations in some big investments in plant and equipment and year-long delays in new factory openings and new model introductions.
If anything, the Big Wind industry appears to be in even deeper financial distress. In recent weeks, Siemens Energy, a major manufacturer of wind turbines, platforms and other green technologies, has sought loan guarantees from the German government of up to €16 billion ($16.9 billion), as rising costs and supply chain issues have changed the economics of its major projects, despite the generous subsidies and incentives the government has already provided. German economy minister Robert Habek says the government is prepared to support the company’s needs as a strategic asset, saying, “In terms of industrial policy, we are at a turning point, and it would be wrong to think that if you don’t face competition, we will benefit as an economy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/1 ... ew-jersey/
For better or worse, the boosters of the much-advertised energy transition decided early on to focus their subsidy strategy on a trio of voracious rent-seeking industries: Wind and solar in power generation, and electric vehicles in transportation. It is a sort of green three-legged stool that we have been assured by activists, politicians, media and the industries themselves would be able to rapidly displace villainous fossil fuels in a cheap and seamless manner.
But a funny thing has happened on the way to our new net-zero utopia, as two of the three legs of the stool have begun to show clear signs of financial distress that could render this stool highly unstable. The EV business was the first to signal that things were not going to plan early this year as unsold inventory began to pile up on dealer lots amid slowing demand, stubborn inflation, and rising interest rates.
In recent weeks, some analysts have begun to predict that peak EV adoption could happen in the next 2-3 years and top out at just 10-12 per cent of the total vehicle fleet. Distressed automakers like Ford and GM have recently announced cancellations in some big investments in plant and equipment and year-long delays in new factory openings and new model introductions.
If anything, the Big Wind industry appears to be in even deeper financial distress. In recent weeks, Siemens Energy, a major manufacturer of wind turbines, platforms and other green technologies, has sought loan guarantees from the German government of up to €16 billion ($16.9 billion), as rising costs and supply chain issues have changed the economics of its major projects, despite the generous subsidies and incentives the government has already provided. German economy minister Robert Habek says the government is prepared to support the company’s needs as a strategic asset, saying, “In terms of industrial policy, we are at a turning point, and it would be wrong to think that if you don’t face competition, we will benefit as an economy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/1 ... ew-jersey/
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
More running out of wind.
A surge in financing costs due to rising interest rates, along with higher prices for many of the materials that go into today’s giant turbines, have led some developers to back out of power sales or subsidy deals covering certain projects, mainly in the US and the UK, and put others under pressure.
“Offshore wind projects around the world have faced a triple whammy of high supply chain inflation, rising interest rates and a reluctance on the part of governments to adjust auction parameters to respond to these new market conditions as they prioritise keeping costs to consumers down,” says Simon Virley, UK head of energy at KPMG.
https://www.ft.com/content/00e8af58-f2b ... 2045c22c20
A surge in financing costs due to rising interest rates, along with higher prices for many of the materials that go into today’s giant turbines, have led some developers to back out of power sales or subsidy deals covering certain projects, mainly in the US and the UK, and put others under pressure.
“Offshore wind projects around the world have faced a triple whammy of high supply chain inflation, rising interest rates and a reluctance on the part of governments to adjust auction parameters to respond to these new market conditions as they prioritise keeping costs to consumers down,” says Simon Virley, UK head of energy at KPMG.
https://www.ft.com/content/00e8af58-f2b ... 2045c22c20
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
Hmmm. An Opinion article without citing any referencestamada wrote: ↑November 7, 2023, 1:05 pmMore running out of wind.
A surge in financing costs due to rising interest rates, along with higher prices for many of the materials that go into today’s giant turbines, have led some developers to back out of power sales or subsidy deals covering certain projects, mainly in the US and the UK, and put others under pressure.
“Offshore wind projects around the world have faced a triple whammy of high supply chain inflation, rising interest rates and a reluctance on the part of governments to adjust auction parameters to respond to these new market conditions as they prioritise keeping costs to consumers down,” says Simon Virley, UK head of energy at KPMG.
https://www.ft.com/content/00e8af58-f2b ... 2045c22c20
Published by a newspaper various described as Conservative or right wing and decidedly climate deniers
Fleet Street's last dinosaur of climate change denial https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute ... ge-denial/
The author is a 40 year veteran in PR for the American energy sector (read fossil fuel).
Geeze I hope that has not coloured the opinion
Best being part of this forum by placing the intellectual challenged on foes list. A lot less post to read and a great time saver.
Re: Future energy sources?
I'm also 40-year veteran of the oil patch. Does it really make a difference?
The stark reality is that windmills aren't all that, never really were, and probably never will be.
Plenty of references by name and company in that FT article, which was written by Rachel Millard: Clean energy correspondent. Rachel Millard covers the shift to cleaner energy in the UK and globally. She joined from the Telegraph in 2023.
Amazing... she's quite new and has broadly the same opinion as a +40 year fossil fuel aficionado.
The stark reality is that windmills aren't all that, never really were, and probably never will be.
Plenty of references by name and company in that FT article, which was written by Rachel Millard: Clean energy correspondent. Rachel Millard covers the shift to cleaner energy in the UK and globally. She joined from the Telegraph in 2023.
Amazing... she's quite new and has broadly the same opinion as a +40 year fossil fuel aficionado.
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
Thanks for the references tam, I would have a good look tomorrow.
Best being part of this forum by placing the intellectual challenged on foes list. A lot less post to read and a great time saver.
Re: Future energy sources?
The Ki ng's Speech to UK parliament has formally restated the Conservative Party's plans to extend oil and gas exploration licensing. With the likelihood of a Labour government after the 2024 General Election, I wonder if their wind farmers, heat pumpers and lithium miners will rise to the challenge of having viable alternative energy streams in place in time for them to rescind all this?
It does appear that time-frames offered for the switch to renewables that were given by many an enthusiastic incumbent and prospective government around the world, have not been based on anything realistic or tangible. The need to ensure sustainable and reliable supply chains and sensible economics appears to be as challenging to the renewables industry as it has been to the existing fossil fuel industry for decades.
Governments pushing these undeliverable pipe dreams are experts in short-terming. They are more guilty of greenwashing than any of the oil companies they arbitrarily levy windfall taxes on, just because the oil company may have momentarily got their forecasting right or benefited from some crisis outwith their control.
It does appear that time-frames offered for the switch to renewables that were given by many an enthusiastic incumbent and prospective government around the world, have not been based on anything realistic or tangible. The need to ensure sustainable and reliable supply chains and sensible economics appears to be as challenging to the renewables industry as it has been to the existing fossil fuel industry for decades.
Governments pushing these undeliverable pipe dreams are experts in short-terming. They are more guilty of greenwashing than any of the oil companies they arbitrarily levy windfall taxes on, just because the oil company may have momentarily got their forecasting right or benefited from some crisis outwith their control.
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
Governments pushing these undeliverable pipe dreams are experts in short-terming. They are more guilty of greenwashing than any of the oil companies they arbitrarily levy windfall taxes on, just because the oil company may have momentarily got their forecasting right or benefited from some crisis outwith their control.
Agree with first two paragraphs Tam, but asking us to feel sorry for oil producers. Either companies or Nations who deliberately restrict supplies especially in "some crisis outwith their control" which they know will cause financial chaos, should not be allowed make excessive profits from these actions. Used to be called hoarding when others did it.
Agree with first two paragraphs Tam, but asking us to feel sorry for oil producers. Either companies or Nations who deliberately restrict supplies especially in "some crisis outwith their control" which they know will cause financial chaos, should not be allowed make excessive profits from these actions. Used to be called hoarding when others did it.
Re: Future energy sources?
Meanwhile, October broke tbe global months temperature record by 0.4 degrees Centigrade. 2023 on track to be the new warmest year. Fossil fuels need to be replaced now, not in 20 years time. The time for debate has run out, time for action.
Re: Future energy sources?
You first.
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
OK, smartarse.
Currently car is an ecocar, get 14 km/litre. When it expires (probably sometime in the next 5 years) It will be replaced by an electric car. Air travel is usually limited to one round trip a year. Currently saving up for solar panels so will use less grid electricity. Already have some solar lights and a solar powered fan.
How about you?
Currently car is an ecocar, get 14 km/litre. When it expires (probably sometime in the next 5 years) It will be replaced by an electric car. Air travel is usually limited to one round trip a year. Currently saving up for solar panels so will use less grid electricity. Already have some solar lights and a solar powered fan.
How about you?
Re: Future energy sources?
8 year-old diesel (roughly same mileage if I don't go like the clappers)rick wrote: ↑November 9, 2023, 11:53 amOK, smartarse.
Currently car is an ecocar, get 14 km/litre. When it expires (probably sometime in the next 5 years) It will be replaced by an electric car. Air travel is usually limited to one round trip a year. Currently saving up for solar panels so will use less grid electricity. Already have some solar lights and a solar powered fan.
How about you?
A tad under 40,000 actual air miles so far this year (not finished yet).
Solar-powered gate lights (for security only).
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
-
jackspratt
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 16926
- Joined: July 2, 2006, 5:29 pm
Re: Future energy sources?
Some up-to-date news for the nuclear power proponents.
Cost update blasts nuclear out of energy mix
Real data on a high-profile six-reactor power plant in the US has confirmed that the contentious technology costs more than any energy consumer wants to pay.
Project costs for the Utah project were estimated at $18,200 per kilowatt, but the company has since disclosed a whopping capital cost of $31,100/kW, prompting its cancellation in November.
In contrast, under existing policies the cost of new offshore wind in Australia in 2023 would be $5545/kW (fixed) and $6856/kW (floating), while rooftop solar panels are calculated at a modest $1505/kW.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/ ... lear-csiro
Re: Future energy sources?
I hope the Australian energy companies manage their wind-powered renewables a bit better than the hapless Brits.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67494082
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67494082
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
~Reinhold Messner~
'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~
"Never put off until tomorrow, what you can put off until next week."
~Ian Vincent~
Re: Future energy sources?
Cannot believe Pratty's numbers have not been produced by some vegan solar/windpower activist. If the costs were so enormously in favour of other forms of electricity production why on earth did most developed nations build and operate nuclear power stations previously. There is obviously a need to move from fossil fuels (according to the scientists who were predicting another ice age a few years ago) but to depend on a source that depends on weather conditions? Never mind the hippies, or benefit junkies, nuclear as a base load must be the only way (with current technology) to provide a stable energy supply.It seems a fairly simple exercise to ramp up and down depending on output from wind, waves and solar sources and probably the cleanest form of energy once on line.
-
jackspratt
- udonmap.com
- Posts: 16926
- Joined: July 2, 2006, 5:29 pm
Re: Future energy sources?
They are not my numbers, Alex - as you can see in the linked article, they come from the CSIRO, Australia's national science agency.
Re: Future energy sources?
Some years ago a Canadian university came up with some sort of enzyme that was able to convert green weeds to contain enough sugar to distill alcohol. My brother in law is a very intelligent chemical engineer. He originally went to work for Standard Oil which was then bought out by BP. He stayed with BP and that's when renewable energy was the next big deal. BP gave him a project in Florida to develop that new discovery. They chose Florida because weeds grew year round down there. He was successful and it went into production. It never made it commercially because of the costs and the project was finally dropped. Alcohol from cheap corn was cheaper and easier. He had thought that his process would be the next big deal. In the years that followed I never heard any more about it.
He later built a new huge home in Northwest Ohio. Everyone in that small Ohio town thought he had gone insane. He put hundreds of meters of deep trenches in his huge yard. and drilled two new wells. He ran water from the first well through hundreds of meters of the buried pipe through a heat exchanger and dumped that water into the second well. He heated and cooled his mansion with that system. It turned out that his electric bills were unbelieavablely cheap. No one laughed at him after seeing the results. The village was building a new high school and had him draw up plans for that same type of system for the school. It too was a success.
He later built a new huge home in Northwest Ohio. Everyone in that small Ohio town thought he had gone insane. He put hundreds of meters of deep trenches in his huge yard. and drilled two new wells. He ran water from the first well through hundreds of meters of the buried pipe through a heat exchanger and dumped that water into the second well. He heated and cooled his mansion with that system. It turned out that his electric bills were unbelieavablely cheap. No one laughed at him after seeing the results. The village was building a new high school and had him draw up plans for that same type of system for the school. It too was a success.